We recently published a list of Top 10 Latest AI Stock News and Analyst Ratings. Since Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) ranks 5th on the list, it deserves a deeper look.
The much-feared correction in mega-cap tech stocks is here as investors keep pulling out of AI winners to pile into small-cap stocks as possible rate cuts from the Federal Reserve near. Brent Thill, Jefferies tech research analyst, recently said while talking to CNBC that we are seeing a rotation inside the tech industry where semiconductor and internet companies are performing well while software companies are underperforming. However, Thill reiterated his view that in the back half of the year things will start to change and tech companies will start their rebound. The analyst cited a few software earnings that suggest no signs of “demand cracks.” He said that many semiconductor stocks are now in the overbought territory.
Brent Thill said the selloff has made software stocks more “attractive.”
But Thill also sees a broader rotation ongoing in the stock market, where sectors like financials and industrials are benefitting amid investor exodus from tech.
Asked what is causing a sudden rebound in small-cap stocks, Thill said that interest rate cut expectations and a broader rotation out of mega-cap stocks have a role to play here, in addition to the M&A activity which has increased significantly recently.
Thill thinks the AI “payoff” time is still years away and companies are still at the beginning of the AI spending curve.
For this article we compiled the biggest AI news updates and analyst rating upgrades/downgrades around AI stocks over the past few days. With each stock we have mentioned the number of hedge fund investors. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 150
Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) AI initiative Apple Intelligence has started to make sense to Wall Street analysts. Recently, Baird raised its price target on the stock to $240 from $200, citing a potential upgrade cycle in iPhone because of Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) Intelligence.
Market’s Huge Assumption About Apple
Baird analyst William Power said in a note that he estimates a whopping 95% of iPhones in the world will need an upgrade at “some point” to take advantage of Apple Intelligence. The analyst mentioned lower upgrade rates at AT&T and Verizon, suggesting consumers might be waiting for AI-integrated smartphones. Based on this catalyst, the analyst upped his fiscal 2025 iPhone estimates by about 20 million units, now projecting iPhone revenue to reach $216.1 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, surpassing the consensus estimate of 6% growth. Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) is expected to generate $418.1 billion in full-year revenue and $7.30 per share in earnings, up from previous forecasts of $394.6 billion and $6.73 per share.
However, the assumption that we will see a huge upgrade cycle of iPhone just because of AI is big and comes with a lot of risks. Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) trades at a forward PE multiple of around 35x, well above its 5-year average of nearly 27x. Its expected EPS forward long-term growth rate of 10.39% does not justify its valuation, especially with the iPhone upgrade cycle assumption. Adjusting for this growth results in a forward PEG ratio of 3.33, significantly higher than its 5-year average of 2.38.
Polen Focus Growth Strategy stated the following regarding Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:
“The largest relative detractors in the quarter were NVIDIA, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), and Salesforce. In a reversal from some of the concerns driving the stock down in the first quarter, Apple re-emerged as a top performer in the second quarter. The company reported better-than-feared results in its iPhone segment that quelled concerns over weakness in China. Additionally, the company forecast a return to sales growth and announced a $110 billion stock buyback plan, the largest in U.S. history. Later in the period, at its Worldwide Developers Conference, Apple introduced long-awaited new AI features that spurred some optimism around an upgrade cycle for the iPhone and, more generally, the important role Apple may be able to play in the emerging AI landscape. We continue to study Apple closely, which we previously owned the company for many years during its growth phase, to determine if it is poised for another significant revenue and earnings growth period.”
Overall, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) ranks 5th on Insider Monkey’s list titled Top 10 Latest AI Stock News and Analyst Ratings. While we acknowledge the potential of Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than AAPL but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.