Hayward Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:HAYW) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Eifion Jones: Yes, I’ll jump in here. It’s Eifion. When we think about the aftermarket, we would say typically 50% of our aftermarket is nondiscretionary resilient. However, we are given due recognition that it’s very unusually right now with the interest rate environment and a lot of discussion around where the economy goes. So to be cautious and prudent, we’ve said that upgrading that takes place at a break fix time period. So when you see an end-of-life asset comes to the end of its life, typically people are spending money to go to the latest upgrade. And that may be deferred, and that’s reflected in our guidance. We think it’s a very cautious view, but we want to be cautious as we start the year off here in the beginning of ’23.

In terms of remodel — we talked about remodels before. We do see the installed base. We do believe there’s pent-up demand for remodeling. However, again, based upon the backdrop of the economy, we think very much similar to new construction that could be a case here for down remodels and additions rate in the region of 20% to 25% across our business base.

Rob Wertheimer: Fair enough. Kevin, I think you touched on it in your prepared remarks that this outlook brings channel inventory days towards the low end of prior ranges. I mean, eventually, that turns into a tailwind, I don’t have that destock. What scenario could have another year of channel destock after this? So we don’t assume the markets fall apart. I mean at the very bottom of the ranges of inventory, do you feel comfortable, or is there essentially room to go there? And I’ll stop there.

Kevin Holleran: Yes. Thanks, Rob. I would say that our expectation is that the channel correction in terms of days on hand will be completed in 2023. I don’t think that based upon some of our conversations and again, all those factors that I mentioned just a moment ago, while answering Nigel’s question, I think, plays into the fact that we can maybe just dip maybe below normal days on hand, and we can — will serve the demand in 2023 with slightly less overall days on hand. And to your point, that may provide some tailwinds into 2024, but that seems a long way off at this point.

Operator: The next question comes from Saree Boroditsky of Jefferies.

Saree Boroditsky : So you highlighted some structural share gains. I think you’ve talked about that being around . What are you seeing now that supply chains have normalized, and how do we think about you maintaining that?

Kevin Holleran: Yes. I mean, each year, our top priority is profitable growth, which implies share gains. I’d say over the last 2.5 to 3 years, we’ve experienced share gains across some critical product categories. We view that as more structural than transitory, for a number of reasons. I think product introductions plays into it as reflected with our Vitality Index, which is up over 20%. Some new dealer conversions into our Totally Hayward program with more folks in the backyard advocating Hayward product. I think we’ve seen great penetration, specifically in some of the year-round sunbelt markets. And I feel that we’re still really in the early innings of some of the adoption of new technologies, be that controls or alternate sanitizers. And I think that we have great products to bring to the market. And we’ll continue to see that upgrading opportunity with Hayward products into the market.

Saree Boroditsky : Great. And then could you just talk about the cadence of the remaining SG&A savings and how we should think about that impacting margins through 2023 and into 2024?