GXO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:GXO) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

We’ve already gone to the verbal agreement to take over Canada for them. We’ve got a new site in Australia and we’re looking at the U.S. So, what we’re seeing is that’s the kind of change that’s happened. Where that would have been a longer period of time to get there. They see what we do. They see the value of what we bring. They see that we bring expertise across multiple sites. So, it’s the same. We can do this over and over again. And they’re very comfortable with the returns we’ve shown them, what they’ve seen with our existing customers. So, that’s the big change. As far as peak, yes, I would say it’s mixed. We have some customers who expect to do fairly well and are doing fairly well now, better than the average. So, their volumes have come up.

We have customers who are being, I would say, they’re taking advantage of where they think peak’s going to be. So, they’re not going to discount. They’re going to hang on to their prices. They’re going to improve their margins, but they’re going to take opportunities as they come up. So, we’ll know more as we get into September, and we’re really planning heavily with customers right now. But I’ll tell you that, I would imagine that the fourth quarter looks a lot like last year’s fourth quarter.

Chris Wetherbee: Okay. And, one just point of clarification in terms of the pipeline relative to conversion, are you suggesting that there might be a faster pace of conversion out of the pipeline.

Bill Fraine: Yes.

Chris Wetherbee: Does that change sort of what the pipeline should look like over the course of, how we measure it quarter-to-quarter or year-over-year?

Bill Fraine: Yes, great question. That’s exactly what’s happening. So, the acceleration of our pipelines up well over two times now. So, it’s really moving and speeding up, and generating a lot of value for us. And again, the amount of customers, what you saw in the almost $500 million, the amount of customers, the amount of opportunities, this will continue as we go forward. I would say that aerospace, industrials, high-tech, and I mentioned e-com, they’re all looking for a big 2024.

Chris Wetherbee: Okay. That’s helpful. Thank you for the time.

Operator: Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions.

Amit Mehrotra: Thanks. Hi, everyone. I just want to circle back maybe to Bascome’s question on next year’s kind of, I guess, revenue outlook. So, if I look at the new business wins, $457 million, I guess you’re talking about that being incremental revenue in 2024. That implies something like 4% to 5% revenue growth for next year. And of course, another six months to go for additional wins. We got some, hopefully, cyclical volume recovery. So, it just seems like the progress you’re making on the net new wins, should kind of bridge you to double-digit, low-double-digit growth next year in terms of revenue, but then I look at consensus and consensus is saying it’s going to be 8% next year. So, I’m just trying to understand kind of what the right way to think about revenue growth next year is. It feels like low-double-digits is achievable. You certainly probably have to start getting to those numbers to hit your 2027 target? If you can talk about that, that’d be great.

Mark Manduca: Hi, Amit, it’s Mark here. I agree with everything you’re saying in terms of the theoretics of it. So, what have you got in your favor here? You’ve got clearly the record new wins, which is growing the snowball in our business, which is obviously always historically been the biggest important part of our 8% to 12% revenue growth. You’ve heard as well in Bascome’s question about the fact that our retention rate has been extremely strong in that mid-to-high 90s. So, that’s very low attrition for those gross wins that you’re talking about. So, that’s in your favor as well. Bill, as well talked about the fact that the pipeline is strong. It’s converting well. We’re seeing a lot of big $100 million customers coming to us.