For HIV, sales to grow high single digit to low double-digit percent. And within General Medicines, we expect sales will decrease by a mid-single-digit percent largely as a result of the AMCAP removal in the US. We also do not anticipate any further revenue from COVID solutions and this will reduce sales growth by 1%, and operating profit growth by 2% in 2024. Secondly, turning to operating margin dynamics, we have been in an investment cycle, supporting our newly launched vaccines and medicines. And we now expect to move to a period of delivering increasing returns on our investment. In this new cycle, we expect a step down in SG&A growth, to a low single-digit percentage improving productivity and providing margin leverage, whilst remaining competitive.
We will continue to invest for growth, as established in our capital allocation framework and we will continue to build a strong R&D pipeline for the longer term. And finally we expect an increased tax rate of 17% to 2024. And I’ll now hand back to, Emma.
Emma Walmsley: Thanks, Julie. So in this final section, we’d like to provide you with a bit more detail on the key elements that we see as underpinning our performance in 2026 to 2031. We know this period is a key area of focus for investors with growth and profitability being too clear dynamics for us to manage. Next slide please. First, growth, and its most important driver portfolio development, we start from a very healthy position with a core set of marketed Vaccines and Specialty Medicines driving significant growth. With the progress we’re making particularly in vaccines and HIV, these marketed assets now support an outlook of more than 7% sales growth on a five-year CAGR basis, in 2026. These growth drivers will be supplemented by a planned set of near-term new product launches, each with peak year sales potential of £2 billion or more.
Here we have new potential vaccines for Meningitis, Influenza, Pneumococcal disease and HSV and new potential medicines for long-acting HIV treatment and prevention, a functional cure for hepatitis B Bepirovirsen, a new portfolio of anti-infective treatments including Gepotidacin, new medicines for respiratory diseases with high burden and unmet need Depemokimab and Camlipixant and in oncology further indications for JEMPERLI and potentially CD226, targeting a variety of cancer types. Altogether, we are currently planning for at least 12 major product launches in the period 2025 to 2031. With these planned launches and our current marketed growth drivers we expect to deliver more than £38 billion in risk-adjusted sales for GSK by 2031. And beyond this, so not included in that £38 billion, we continue to develop a promising early-stage pipeline.
And we will continue to pursue targeted business development. Next slide please. Of course we recognize that there is development risk and that refreshing and progressing, our pipeline is a continual process. By definition not everything will come through. Continued strong execution is needed and we’re committed to it. We forecast our sales on an RA, Risk-Adjusted and NRA, Non-Risk-Adjusted basis. As you can see here, there is significant potential for upside with successful development outcomes. Our highest adjustments are in Specialty Oncology, reflecting the development risk and the upside returns the assets we have in this space offer. Overall, our portfolio offers scale growth opportunity and has an attractive risk profile, more than 90% of those future sales come from products already approved or from planned launches of £2 billion or more most of which we plan to launch in the next four years.
Next slide please. You’ll be increasingly familiar with many of these assets following our meet the management events last year. We will, of course, continue to provide updates as we expect significant amounts of pipeline value to unlock this year in 2025 and in 2026 as this growing late-stage portfolio matures. As shown here you can see we have multibillion pound scale opportunities in all of our core product areas. These peak year sales estimates are given on a non-risk adjusted basis and all of them are at least £2 billion with many significantly higher. So let’s now turn to the second dynamic for us to manage in 2026 to 2031, a continued focus on profitability and disciplined capital allocation. So over to Julie to comment on this.
Julie Brown: Thanks Emma. And first I will cover operating margins. Since 2021 we’ve delivered an increase in margin of 290 basis points and we remain focused on delivering further margin improvements in the next three years to achieve an operating margin in excess of 31% by the end of 2026. This represents more than a 530 basis point improvement over the five years. Our margin is benefiting from the strategic shift we’ve made to invest in Vaccines and Specialty Medicines together with the significant productivity improvements across supply chain, commercial operations and global functions. This margin progression is after absorbing various headwinds including several already highlighted such as Gardasil royalties and the impact from MCAP.
These are all factored into our outlooks. Moving to the period 2026 to 2031. Whilst we do not plan to guide on operating margin beyond 2026, we do understand that investors are concerned about the period when Dolutegravir loses exclusivity. We would, therefore, like to set out our expectations for this three-year period starting in 2028 with the majority impact into 2030. Offsetting this are a number of positive factors. Firstly and very importantly, the development of new long-acting and ultra long-acting HIV treatment and prevention therapies such that by the time the loss of exclusivity starts, we would expect around 40% of our HIV business to be in long-acting therapies. Second, the mix benefit to the operating margin from growth in Vaccines and Specialty Care products, which we anticipate to be around three-quarters of revenues by 2026.
