Nick Stone: So, mindful, we’re at just over the hour mark, and we’ve still got six individuals with hands raised. So what I propose is that we try and work through as many of those as possible till quarter past the hour, and then we’ll close the call there. So, our next question comes from Mark Purcell at Morgan Stanley. Over to you, Mark.
Mark Purcell: Yeah. Thank you, Nick, and thanks for taking my question. On Arexvy, a little bit more color. I just wondered if there’s any early indications of outer seasonal demand for RSV vaccination. Still there may be more of a sort of Prevnar flu hybrid model. I know you’ll know more by the end of the year, but any early indications there? And in pharmacies where Pfizer is fully stocked alongside you, given they talk about how they’re not fully launched yet, what is your market share in those pharmacies where both products are present? And then a quick one for Tony. In terms of the Inflation Reduction Act considerations on R&D, where you have assets such as your IL-18 where you could run parallel trials across a multiple number of indications, do you see the sort of pressure to do that? And on something like IL-5, could you do a bridge study or would you have to do a separate study in COPD?
Emma Walmsley: Okay. Luke and Tony?
Luke Miels: Yeah. Thanks, Mark. We’re beating them everywhere so far. The aim is to keep that happening. So yeah, I mean — look, it’s really it’s interesting. I mean, when you look at pharmacists’ prioritization, RSV is up there with flu and COVID. You’ve seen COVID volumes drop off. And, last week, we still kept growing with Arexvy, which is encouraging. I was sort of wondering whether it would start to slow down. So, this next couple of weeks, script data will really be interesting. It’s more than 90% in the retail setting. And that’s another critical component in your assumptions. And we don’t actually expect that to materially change. We think vaccines for maternal in OBGYN and PCP offices will occur, which will be something we’ll have to back out in future calculations, but we think the older adults market is going to be very much like flu, very much like Shingrix heading in the direction of retail.
So, we’ll just see what people’s enthusiasm is over the next couple of weeks. Clearly, awareness is very high. Intention to recommend is very high. So again, I’m very happy to sort of back the truck up with everything that we know in Q4 and give you much more color around the market research that we’ll have at that point.
Emma Walmsley: Great, thanks. And Tony, anything to add?
Tony Wood: Yeah. Just two very quick ones in terms of the IL-18 question. Look, the key question you’re asking with IL-18 at the moment is its efficacy relative to [depe] (ph) in atopic dermatitis. For the medium term, as we build out our biomarker strategy and look for markers of efficacy at Phase I, that’s exactly the underpinnings that I would then want to have the confidence to go forward into multiple indications. You probably have in mind that in the case of IL-18, the Mendelian randomization also points to inflammatory bowel disease, obviously a range of other considerations there beyond just IRA in terms of whether or not that’s a path to go. And then lastly for MATINEE and the bridge for depe, let’s see where we go when we get the MATINEE results.
Obviously, we’re focusing very much on the role of EOS in driving the morbidity and mortality associated with COPD. So, that will be part of our strategy, but I’m focused at the moment on making sure we get the results out for MATINEE and delivering a success. Emma, any color to that?
Emma Walmsley: Yeah. Of course any allocation of capital is a combination of probability of success and the assumed forecast. And that assumed forecast now has to take into account the area under the curve, what they really like, format or anything else. Next question, please.
Nick Stone: Next question is from Steve Scala at TD Cowen. Over to you, Steve.
Steve Scala: Thank you very much. I’m just curious of Arexvy shipments in October support your conservative guide for the full year. So, were they essentially zero? I would note that in the first quarter of 2018, GSK called out stocking for Shingrix and then went on to beat in 10 of the next 12 quarters in the US. Second, I know you’re beating Pfizer in RSV everywhere, but to what should we attribute the success they have had? Previously, you’ve said that you have a better vaccine, you’re stronger in the commercial setting, yet they put up a big number as well. So, to what do we attribute that? Thank you.
Emma Walmsley: Well, I’ll ask Luke to overlay, Steve, but thanks for the questions. And this is the first season that we’ve been through. We’ve given our guide for the reasons that I won’t repeat since we’re under some timing pressure, but we will know a lot more in Q4. And obviously, we remain extremely ambitious for this. And our competitive focus is to make sure that not only the size of the market is big, which is where we welcome competition, but that we are able to effectively reach the patients that need us, which is this more vulnerable [indiscernible] cohort. Luke, anything you want to add?
Luke Miels: Yeah. Look, I think Shingrix is a different case, right? I mean, I was in the middle of that, we canceled the global launch. We redirected all of the volumes to the US. And we also in the middle of the later year had some synergies in manufacturing, which were surprising upside in terms of loss rate and packaging. So that’s why we’re able to get that volume ahead for Shingrix. Look, I think in terms of us versus Pfizer, firstly, it’s great two companies are out there driving volume because this is an awareness game. No one had heard of RSV if you’re a person in the population before that. So, having two companies promote, it’s good. We have enormous respect for Pfizer. We like competing with them. They are a strategic competitor for us if you look across PCV, meningitis, RSV and potentially shingles at some point. So, it’s nice to have this strong start. And again, yeah, we want to keep this going.
Emma Walmsley: Next question.
Nick Stone: Yeah. Next question is from Peter Welford at Jefferies.
Peter Welford: Hi, thanks. Yeah, I’m afraid I’m sticking with Arexvy. Can I just ask quickly, you mentioned that retail was over 90% of the volumes so far. Curious, why you’re so confident that, that mix will continue? I mean obviously Shingrix, it’s varied over time. But I think your competitor made some comments that they think potentially in the fourth quarter and the back half of the season, it’s going to switch more towards the non-retail segment where they see perhaps a greater competitive advantage. I wonder if you could comment I guess on both of those, both from the competitive advantage point of view and also how potentially this could change I guess during the course of the season? And then just secondly, I wanted to stick with vaccines, but wondering if Tony could possibly give us an update at all on how you’re thinking about mRNA.
I know we come back to this almost every quarter. There obviously have been some competitive developments in there. So, I wonder if you could just give us a quick update on how you’re looking at your strategy and updates from news flow we could get for your mRNA portfolio in 2024?
