GSK plc (NYSE:GSK) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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It includes a number of different revaccination schedules. I don’t want to get into the detail on that. Safe to say that what we’re seeing there from earlier data as is expected, which is the longer you wait between vaccination, the greater the boost.

Emma Walmsley: Thanks, Tony. Next question, please.

Nick Stone: Okay. We’re going to come to Emily Field at Barclays. So, Emily, over to you, please.

Emily Field: Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. I will ask two. The first one is that Gilead last week talked about the impact of the Part D redesign on their HIV business, resulting in flat growth for 2025. I was just wondering if you could give any color on how you are expecting that to impact your own business in 2025? And then secondly, just on Blenrep, before it was removed from the peak sales guide, I believe it had been for guidance of over £3 billion in peak sales and now, having DREAMM-8 and DREAMM-7, I was awaiting on the data from DREAMM-8. Could you talk about perhaps expecting when you may add that in, or characterise how that peak sales opportunity may have changed with the new indications? Thank you.

Emma Walmsley: Thanks, Emily. I mean just on the peak year sales from Blenrep, we’re obviously not going to be updating that today. We explicitly – and it’s an interesting reference point to look at 2021 when we were talking about earlier lines. But we have new data, the exciting data that’s come through. We’re going to be presenting at ASCO. Tony, Luke and their teams will update you at Meet the Management about how we see the path forward. But we’ve obviously got a journey to go on with the regulators. We’re very engaged in that. But clearly, what we’re interested is in the step change of impact for patients, and that could be very exciting. And we’ll keep you updated along that journey in due course. Deborah, excited to have a question on HIV. So perhaps you could comment. We don’t guide by asset by year, but we have factored this into our broader outlook. And Deborah, can you give a bit more color to that, please?

Deborah Waterhouse: Thanks, Emily. The first thing to say is that we are obviously delighted by our growth in Q1, which was 14%, and we are particularly delighted because, as I said earlier, 50% of our growth – our pounds growth came from long-acting injectables. The momentum behind those medicines is continuing to be extremely important today in driving growth, and will continue to be important until the end of the decade as our pipeline, which is long-acting injectable oriented, continues to make great progress. In terms of 2025, so we believe that the IRA, Medicare Part D re-design, will have an impact of about £200 million next year, so it will be a drag, but actually, as you can see, our growth and our momentum is very strong. So it will have a headwind, but we believe that that is manageable and this has already been factored into all of the guidance we have given, including our upgrade last year to our five-year CAGR 2021-2026 being 6% to 8% growth.

Emma Walmsley: And more than 7% at a group level. Next question, please.

Nick Stone: Thanks. I’m mindful of the fact that we are at the end of the call, so we’re going to run for another 10 minutes. We do have five individuals with hands raised, so we can [indiscernible] get through as many of these as possible if we can keep both the question and answer concise, then hopefully, we’ll get there. So Richard Parkes will come to you, please next, BNP Paribas.

Richard Parkes: Thanks for taking my question. I just want to push a little more on the RSV revaccination potential. My understanding is that you no longer have vaccine efficacy data for patients having received a booster before season three, and so we will just have immunogenicity data. I am just wondering about how confident you are that ACIP will make a recommendation based on just immunogenicity data when the previous booster data we saw showed no additional benefit from booster after season one. That’s the first question and then second just on Shingrix just to round off the discussion, so in Europe, growth has slowed to single digits. I am just wondering, is that just a capacity allocation or could we expect to see a reacceleration in growth for Shingrix in Europe? Thank you.

Emma Walmsley: Okay, quick answers, Tony and then Luke.

Tony Wood: Yes. So ACIP won’t make a decision this year and it will be on vaccine efficacy from three seasons and immunogenicity when we present those data together.

Emma Walmsley: Thanks. Luke?

Luke Miels: Yes, it’s very much driven and as we open up tenders, we are in discussions with France right now, we have a very good rating in a tough system, and other small European markets are starting to open up, so I would expect growth in the second half to be encouraging.

Emma Walmsley: Next question, please.

Nick Stone: We’ll take the next question from Peter Verdult with Citi. Peter, over to you, please.

Peter Verdult: Thanks. Sorry, two more for Luke. Peter Verdult here from Citi. On the IL-5 franchise, Luke, we are assuming biologics penetration in severe asthma currently around 20% to 30%. I am just interested to hear whether you have more precise data and your thoughts or hopes where penetration could peak out. And then secondly, if the mepo COPD data does play out as you hope in terms of target clinical profile, how are you thinking about biologics penetrating in COPD? I mean, can the ramp be quicker than what has been seen in asthma in pulmonologists already being experienced in biologics, or would you take a more cautious view given the novelty of biologics as a treatment option in COPD? Thanks.

Luke Miels: Yes, Peter, I mean, I think like your numbers are very consistent with what we see in terms of tracking, insurance databases, ATUs, physician surveys et cetera. If anything, physician surveys tend to overstate their usage. I think this is part historical. I mean, there are lots of parallels we have seen of course with TNFs and rheumatologists. When you see more recent graduates that have been trained and employed antibodies throughout their training, they are more comfortable with the utilisation. You also got the evidence trend moving in our favor. There is an emerging and we have done some good studies here and plan to build on this, around the capacity to drive remission through earlier intervention with antibodies, so with IL-5s in particular, Nucala, and we have published on that.

So I think that’s all working in our favor. With COPD, my expectation is yes, they would use it more actively because they have had a number of years’ experience in asthma subjects, so let’s see. Of course it is going to be driven by the strength of the data and of course we have huge synergies with Trelegy, Arexvy and the COPD treatment group, so yes, let’s see.

Emma Walmsley: Obviously we are going see the readout in Nucala and then we have play in the rest of the longer-acting IL-5s and also the deal we closed this quarter in terms of where other technologies can take us. Okay, next question, please.

Nick Stone: Peter Welford at Jefferies, over to you.

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