Green Plains Partners LP (NASDAQ:GPP) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Todd Becker: As we said, we’ve seen 100,000 barrels a day or so of export capacity, some days a little bit higher, some days a little less. I think obviously the world is an interesting place today, and we got to watch where we ship our products to. But again, no lower price for octane on the planet. Still, it’s advantage what we produce globally. But generally, Canada continues to have a really strong low carbon fuel program, and we see good uptake from there. And then randomly around the world, we see some going to the EU again, that market has opened up for us, and generally strong. We started to see volumes again starting out of the Middle East, but with what’s going on there, that may drop a little bit. But overall, we have strong exports out of the U.S. And we’ll watch the Brazilian, because when you have Brazilian sugar prices where they’re at, we also have high Brazilian ethanol prices at this time.

So we’re able to at least get some other business coming our way. So I think we’ll remain at those levels really throughout the year.

Unidentified Analyst: That’s super helpful. Thank you. And last one for me. As we’ve seen the divergence between DDGS prices and soymeal, how has that impacted the HiPro pricing competitiveness?

Todd Becker: Well, I think what we saw is soymeal was weak, quite weak earlier in the quarter, and then you’ve seen it come roaring back. I think that’s kind of what the viewpoint is, that while it narrowed up during the quarter, spreads – there’s some areas that still have very strong distillers prices. North Dakota has strong distillers prices, Nebraska has strong distillers prices as well. But generally the spread has widened back out to the levels where we’re able to start to achieve our margins. When you have soymeal futures at 425, 426 or something like that, and you’ve got Indiana sitting at 175 or Shenandoah sitting at 190, that spreads. That spreads now book on to historically wider levels, which then gives us a little bit more margin and the meal basis has rallied as well. So generally, overall, I think we’re in a better position today. Thank you.

Unidentified Analyst: Thank you. Congrats on the quarter.

Operator: Thanks. The next question is from Eric Stine with Craig-Hallum. Your line is open.

Eric Stine : Good morning, everyone. Thanks for all the details. I know for EBITDA for 2024, I mean, it’s roughly $200 million plus x ethanol somewhere in that range. Not sure if you gave 2025, I might have missed that. I know previously you’d talked about $400 million to $600 million at a run rate in 2025. I guess given the commentary around Summit in the carbon capture opportunity, I mean is it better to think of low end of that range? And that obviously upside as you get into 2026?

Todd Becker: Yes, I don’t know that we gave $400 million to $600 million, but I think what we’re talking about in 2025 is the previous guidance that we gave it still stands. And it’s because really it’s at advantage Nebraska to start with Summit coming out in 2026. And so when you take that, when you take 60 Pro, when you take overall veg oil yields, when you take expanded protein production, as we get into 2025, we’re still staying in the previous guidance ranges. And then on top of that, where do you put ethanol margin on top of that. Phil, you have any other comments on that?

Phil Boggs: No, I think that’s right, Todd. We’re still in those ranges that we pulled out previously. The path forward to 2025 includes completing the facilities. Bring those new facilities online sometime in 2025 with medicine and term on.

Eric Stine : Okay, thank you.

Todd Becker: Thank you.

Operator: The next question is from Salvator Tiano with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Salvator Tiano: Yes, thank you very much. So firstly, I want to understand you made these comments about kind of the asset based aging and you guys are making some changes. You’re going to, I guess, modernize your assets. Can you provided some details on what this entails in terms of CapEx spend in the next few years and also whether we should expect any meaningfully that contribution from this plan?

Todd Becker: Well, look, what we produced this quarter at 94% was rounded up to 0.1% [ph]. But what we produced this quarter at 94%. We still have a ways to go. We can get more out of these plants. And we’re just starting to unlock the capabilities of these plants from the last round of CapEx. And some of that’s coming through automation. So that’s a little bit lower, cheaper to do that. We have literally working around the clock to put as much automation as fast as we can in these plants. Not because our employees or labor. It’s just because we can operate better when we’re managing that through automation. Whether it’s how much enzyme going to fermenter, whether it’s how much yeast is going to get applied and make sure it gets applied consistently every day at the same rate and what we want it to be applied at and less room for human error, which we learned, obviously was a bit of a headwind at times.

And so those are not high cost CapEx relative to making our plants run better, there’s still more to unlock. We can ultimately make over, I believe, over 100% of our stated capacity that’s coming down the road. I mean we can – we have more to unlock in these assets. Madison, we’re held back on permit on how much ethanol we can make and we’re maximizing that every single day. And we’re not making the full capability of that plant, because we’re waiting for Illinois hopefully to expand our operating permit, not just for protein, but to give us more ethanol headway as well. So we can make more ethanol. And part of that, the second thing is that we have to invest smart and correct in all these plants and that’s why I brought a new team in.

The old team can only take us so far and the new team is really taking us to the next level. It’s a little bit uncomfortable for some people when we want to run these plants harder. And it’s a bit like the analogy you use when you have, I’ve heard this a few times, when you have a Ferrari, you don’t run it in first gear, you try to run it as hard as you can. We know they’re going to break a little bit, but then you get through that and you keep going. And so while we say we’re going to modernize our plants. We’ve done a lot already, now we’re going to maximize that investment. And so I don’t think our CapEx relative to our plants changes much past our previous guidance. Jim, what is our normal CapEx range?