Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (GMCR): 2 Crucial Indicators You May Have Missed

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ:GMCR) was in 20 hedge funds’ portfolio at the end of the fourth quarter of 2012. GMCR has experienced a decrease in hedge fund sentiment in recent months. There were 23 hedge funds in our database with GMCR positions at the end of the previous quarter.

At the moment, there are tons of methods shareholders can use to watch publicly traded companies. Two of the most innovative are hedge fund and insider trading movement. At Insider Monkey, our studies have shown that, historically, those who follow the top picks of the top fund managers can beat the broader indices by a healthy margin (see just how much).

Just as important, positive insider trading activity is a second way to break down the marketplace. As the old adage goes: there are a variety of motivations for a bullish insider to drop shares of his or her company, but just one, very clear reason why they would initiate a purchase. Many empirical studies have demonstrated the useful potential of this tactic if you understand what to do (learn more here).

Consequently, we’re going to take a look at the latest action surrounding Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ:GMCR).

What does the smart money think about Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ:GMCR)?

Heading into 2013, a total of 20 of the hedge funds we track were bullish in this stock, a change of -13% from the third quarter. With hedge funds’ positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an “upper tier” of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings considerably.

When looking at the hedgies we track, D. E. Shaw’s D E Shaw had the largest position in Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ:GMCR), worth close to $79.3 million, accounting for 0.2% of its total 13F portfolio. The second largest stake is held by Brett Barakett of Tremblant Capital, with a $68.5 million position; the fund has 3.1% of its 13F portfolio invested in the stock. Other hedgies with similar optimism include Robert Pitts’s Steadfast Capital Management, and Edward Goodnow’s Goodnow Investment Group.

Seeing as Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ:GMCR) has experienced bearish sentiment from hedge fund managers, logic holds that there lies a certain “tier” of funds who were dropping their full holdings heading into 2013. It’s worth mentioning that Dinakar Singh’s TPG-AXON Management LP sold off the biggest stake of the 450+ funds we monitor, totaling about $59.9 million in stock.. Patrick McCormack’s fund, Tiger Consumer Management, also sold off its stock, about $48 million worth. These moves are intriguing to say the least, as aggregate hedge fund interest fell by 3 funds heading into 2013.

How are insiders trading Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ:GMCR)?

Insider buying is best served when the company we’re looking at has experienced transactions within the past 180 days. Over the latest six-month time frame, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ:GMCR) has seen zero unique insiders buying, and 4 insider sales (see the details of insider trades here).

Let’s also review hedge fund and insider activity in other stocks similar to Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ:GMCR). These stocks are Campbell Soup Company (NYSE:CPB), Ralcorp Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:RAH), Ingredion Inc (NYSE:INGR), The J.M. Smucker Company (NYSE:SJM), and McCormick & Company, Incorporated (NYSE:MKC). This group of stocks are in the processed & packaged goods industry and their market caps are closest to GMCR’s market cap.