And as Jean-Francois said, we’ve got a great health care and beauty platform that came with AR Packaging. It’s powerful. It creates opportunity for us to grow globally, particularly here in North America. And it’s been very steady. Our beauty business inside of that has been outstanding. As Mike said, we saw a real step back in Q4, just overall consumption in Europe. Europe was really very, very slow in Q4, but it has returned back to more normalized levels. So I gave you a lot of examples there because we’re going to talk more about this. When we talk about the company, when Mike talks about the company, when we’re sharing what’s going on, we’re going to be talking about this. And this is the business we are because when 95% of our sales are basically making products into these markets, we need to be able to inform, provide confidence that we’re winning in these markets with examples, so wanted to take a little bit of time on something you’re going to see us talk more about.
The base financial model for the business. Post the sale of Augusta, we have the business we need to have in hand today to execute against this. We have the business. We’ve been building it through the investments we’ve talked about, Kalamazoo, Waco, AR, Bell, investments in people, capabilities, talent, value-based pricing, all of those things have come together to create a business that we believe, going forward, can keep it simple, grow the top line consistently low single digits, a couple of hundred basis points of growth inside of that, make that work year in and year out. That will drive mid-single-digit EBITDA growth, and I’ll talk about how we believe and why that’s relevant on a go-forward basis that then can drive significant EPS growth, high single digits.
So we’re going to talk a lot about low, mid, high single-digit growth in key categories, sales, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, all in the context of CapEx migrating to 5% of sales, which allows us to invest for growth in the business to grow at those levels, and that’s very important. And we’ll get paid for the value. And so let me just walk through these a little bit with a little bit more. So low-single-digit top line, it’s right there. It’s right there. Maggie talked about it. it’s a $15 billion addressable market. And this isn’t a TAM that some number that’s developed off of some very [indiscernible]. Though these are identifiable real products that exist today. They’re in the market. They’re in an alternative, and we believe that there — the environment where we will create solutions that we already have that we will apply into these markets.
And if you look at this, I think one of the most powerful things about this, particularly as Mike was telling our journey going back, the history going back to ’16, ’17 really only thought about Graphic Packaging as a serial box and a 12-pack. That’s how you thought about the company. And now trays, bowls, cups, containers, canisters. That’s an entirely different portfolio of packaging solutions that we’re inventing, we’re creating and we’re bringing to life in the marketplace, which creates confidence in the low-single-digit sales growth. I didn’t even talk about Rainier, which Maggie did a phenomenal job of talking about, that’s incremental beyond that. We’re in early days. We couldn’t be more excited about what the ability, the opportunity that exists by having the world’s lowest cost, highest quality, most capable coated recycled paperboard that we can apply in places where it just hasn’t been able to win in the past.
That’s powerful. So going back to this and the simplicity of it,in 2025, we set an EBITDA margin target, 18% to 20%. It was a target. It was important because we needed to improve upon the business. We needed to change the model. Value-based pricing, getting paid for what we’re creating, all the things that Mike and Maggie and Jean-Francois have talked about in their comments. And we got there. We got there through value pricing, M&A, all the good work that we’ve been executing on. Well, now we’re in that margin ZIP code. So we’re going to pivot because from here, it’s about low-single-digit sales growth, creating EBITDA growth, dollar growth in that mid single digit. And that speaks to the fact that we’re not here about selling paperboard, this is about a consumer packaging company selling packages to our customers that result in products that we, as consumers, eventually take off the shelf.
The mid-single-digit EPS or EBITDA growth nicely leverages into high-single-digit EPS growth. It’s just the math. It allows us to leverage a great balance sheet and to invest back in the business. And we’re looking forward to the 5% CapEx. Because, just repeating, we’re at peak CapEx this year, and I’ll take you through that here in a moment. It will start to cycle down in 2025 as we bring Waco to life. And then it’s underway to 5% of sales in 2026 and beyond. And it allows us to grow. 5% is all that we need. Because, for us, that ability to generate the kind of growth, a couple of hundred basis points a year, put money to work to do that, we really need — with all of the investments we’ve made in our infrastructure, in our facilities, we need 2% of sales to maintain them well.
So it gives us the ability to invest behind it and to grow. And so 3% of sales to invest behind growth as well as continue to be world class at the manufacturing that we do allows that to be in place. And the cash flow generation that’s coming I’ll share with you here in a moment. So what do we do with this? How are we allocating capital? We’ve got the model. The model is going to have that $8.8 billion business growing steadily. It will have those EBITDA, the EBITDA that’s there, growing steadily. Cash flow generation will become very material over the next couple of years as we wind down the capital required to bring Waco to life. And so these are the priorities. The priorities, invest in who we are. First and foremost, put the money to work in us.
You’ve seen a cross section of the capabilities we have here today, and we’ve got 24,000 colleagues who are rowing in the same direction, and we’re committed to building the business that we’ve been collectively building. And so we’ll continue to invest innovation capabilities, R&D capabilities, the kind of work that’s required to have a margin profile that allows us to have a good narrow band of consistent margins that allow us to grow EBITDA consistently. And so first and foremost, we’ll invest in ourselves prudently. We have an incredible opportunity to grow our dividend. We’ve increased it a few times in the past. But as we come through this peak CapEx cycle, probably not 2024, but as we move towards 2025, we’re setting our own expectation of a good, steady, consistent growing dividend.
We have the cash flow to do it, smart to do it, returns appropriate capital to our investors, and it’s an opportunity that we have and that we’ve created with the investments that we’ve made. And we’re going to set that expectation on ourselves, obviously, approved by our Board, but we see absolute line of sight to a good, steady, consistent and growing dividend as part of who we are as Graphic Packaging. Achieve investment grade. We’ve talked about this a fair amount. It’s not an imperative, but we have the balance sheet and we’ll have the balance sheet. What achieve investment grade also basically fundamentally says is lower debt, a clean balance sheet, drive leverage probably below the 2.5x range. It’s been in the low end of our range. You should expect us to apply cash flow, create that opportunity because it exists.
And we’ll pursue investment grade at the right time in the right place where it makes good sense, where there’s value that comes from it relative to borrowing, relative to investor interest and the like. Peak CapEx, probably not the time to do that. We’ve got to show the realities of delevering, and we’ll do that. We’ll do it at the right time over this Vision 2030 time horizon. But that speaks to a very strong balance sheet and leverage, that is at or below the range that we’ve talked about historically. Repurchasing the company buying back shares. We’ve got a history of doing that, where there’s value to be created. Since 2018, we bought back $900 million of Graphic Packaging. You can look that up against our market cap. That’s a lot of the company.
And we did it at times where it was very value creating. And we did a big chunk of it coming out of the International Paper transaction where we created some equity as part of that transaction as part of the partnership. And we actually ended up acquiring back the company more cost effectively even then it was part of that transaction. And so we’re going to hold, and you should expect us to hold all of our investment decisions up against buying back the company because that’s what you got to do. You’ve got to just smart balance capital allocation approach. How does it stack up? What you’re doing relative to that? So we’re thoughtful about it, we’ll be smart about it, but the cash flow generation that’s about to emerge for the business. It’s a tool that we’ll keep handy for us.
We’ve been acquisitive. You’ve seen us be acquisitive. But the bar is pretty high right now on acquisitions. And as such, we’ll be very thoughtful, and it will end up being about capabilities. It will be about things that accelerate growth if we choose to do so here in the — certainly in the short to medium term because that’s the opportunity to extend leadership. We’ve got a strong business, investing capabilities. And what’s interesting, and I’m sure many of you understand it, and I’ll say the word integration 1 more time just because I will, and then I will be done. But our acquisition lens was in the lens of integration because it had to be because that’s what we are driving. Post Augusta, 90% integrated, 95% of the top line, making an end product.
You don’t have to have that as the lens around which you look to acquire. It actually opens up the aperture quite nicely for capabilities if we choose to do so. But I’ll repeat, we have the company in hand today to execute against the goals that we’re aspiring to on the financial model. What’s not on this page? There’s not another Kalamazoo, there’s not another Waco because we’ve made those investments. We’ve made the investments necessary to create the business. And as Mike said earlier, to have a business that has the capabilities to grow as a consumer packaging company and to make paperboard raw materials, where we have ROIC advantage, competitive advantage, the right to win and ability to do so. And we’ve made those decisions around recycled paperboard, and we’ve made them around some of our wood fiber paperboard in the businesses, those facilities that will be a part of our infrastructure going forward.
And it’s important because we want them to be a part of our business where there’s a reason for it, better returns, ability to grow, that’s why you do it. That’s why — and that’s why there’s not another 1 on the list because we don’t need to have another 1 on the list, and there won’t be. And then Augusta, obviously, we took a decision with Augusta to actually exit out of the essence of making something that made it very well. It’s a world-class facility, by the way, with phenomenal teams, but it’s not required for us to execute on our vision going forward. An arrow with a few numbers on it. This is the next 7 years. Will it play out exactly like this? Probably not. But is this where we’re heading? The cash flow that we’re about to generate is very substantial.
We’re still generating strong cash flow, by the way, even while investing at peak CapEx. But the trajectory for the business, 2024 peak CapEx, 2025 starts to narrow down. During that period of time, we’ll still continue to grow at low single digits, have our innovation pipeline, have our margins continue to stay in a very narrow band and grow them. And then it creates an opportunity in 2026 to begin to earn on Waco, which actually has an opportunity for margin enhancement, which is great because it allows us to have confidence ’26, ’27 to bring to life the next $160 million of EBITDA and earn on it. And that business, if you stand back from it and model it, start with your [indiscernible], move from there, grows, EBITDA grows, cash flows moved from $800 million towards $1 billion.
That’s what we’re focused on. And so over the next 4 years, we’ll generate $2.5 billion of cash flow that we can put to work under the allocations that we just chatted about in the prior slide, about $8 a share in today’s environment. And then we’ll do it again in the following 3 years. So $5 billion of cash flow that we are confident we can create. The model is there for us to grow on a very steady and consistent basis, top line, EBITDA, EPS, generate the cash flow, have exceptional returns on invested capital and build the business and return significant value to our shareholders. And so that just gives you a little bit of a sense for the where to from here. And with that, let me turn it back over to Mike to wrap up, and then we’ll move to Q&A.
Mike?
Michael Doss: Well, thank you, Steve. I really thank you all — I took this off. I don’t like having a mic on when I’m not talking General Counsel advises against it. SP999 There we go. Look, now is the part of the presentation where I’m usually supposed to say, “Boy, I hope you’re excited about our future as all of us are here at Graphic Packaging.” But what I’m really hoping you took away from our presentation today is just how much stronger we become in the last 7 years. And that you can begin to appreciate what it really means to have the ability to provide real lasting value for our shareholders, our customers and our employees. Look, we aren’t just a paperboard packaging company anymore. Steve kind of talked about that, 95% of everything we do is some kind of package.
We don’t sell paperboard. We are a global consumer packaging company. That’s a big shift from where we’ve been in the past, and a big shift from many of the conversations that we’ve had with a number of you over time. I hope you’ve been able to see that today. We believe that paper packaging is really the most sustainable median of packaging out there, and ultimately, would become a partner of choice for many of the biggest brands in the world. They understand that both in the packages that they’re making today and the ones that we believe we’ll package again in the future for them. Look, we package consumer staples. We do it well, and we get paid for that, which means, as Steve just outlined, you can have confidence when we outline the types of gains in free cash flow and overall profitability, both in terms of sales growth and what you’ll see on the bottom line in the years to come.
It’s a proud moment for me to stand up here in front of all of you today as we kind of look back over the last 7 years. Look, 7 years ago, I couldn’t have stood up here and made the types of commitments that we’re making you today. I just couldn’t. We didn’t have the investment in capabilities. We didn’t have the investment in innovation. And certainly, we didn’t have the investment in people that we bring to the party today. I can stand here and make these commitments to you today with a lot of confidence, and I’m even more excited about what the next 7 years looks like for our company. Hopefully, really, as you kind of think about this, and kind of put it in context. The last 7 years has been an incredible period of time of heavy investment, strategic change and transformation.
And what’s really going to become apparent over the next couple of years is just all the results that are going to be generated from the investments that we’ve made with the hard work that we put in today. Actually, you have seen and touch our products every day. You’ve got many of them in front of you right now. And I love our tagline that basically says we package everyday moments for a renewable future. And then shareholders, you’ve had the opportunity to benefit in that, and you’ll continue to have the opportunity to benefit in that from what is truly a fantastic company that we’re building here. With that, thank you for listening, and I’m going to ask my team to come up here and join us on the stage, and we’re to that part where we get to take questions now.
Michael Doss: Melanie, I think you are going to handle Q&A.
Melanie Skijus: Alexander in the blue jacket, they will be carrying on microphones. We’ll start here in the room, and then we’ll go to the questions coming in from the webcast.
Q – Philip Ng: Phil Ng from Jefferies. Thanks for the awesome presentation. You talked about spending a lot of capital the last few years, and it’s going to be pretty elevated still — so it give us a sense of how much of that drops off in 2025 and 2026? Could it be more normalized in that 5% range? And I guess the bigger picture question I have is you guys have invested a lot. I think you guys should have a pretty substantial lead versus the industry and most of your competitors. Give us some perspective what you can do as a Graphic Packaging company with all the investments you’ve made that your competitors perhaps can’t do, would be helpful?
Stephen Scherger: Let me start and then [indiscernible] I mean I think cadence-wise, as we just talked, here in 2024, high watermark probably into the [9s]. We spent about $300 million last year, by the way, on Waco. So well along, which is great. And so it’s our expectation. If you kind of cut it in the middle, I don’t have the exact numbers, but in the 9s, probably moves into the 7 range and then back to 5%. And that will be 5%. So we think about that. If we continue to grow the company, obviously, the math there is pretty obvious. $400 million, $500 million a year. So it’s a good cadence down. We’ll generate good cash flow, obviously, still generating cash flow here in 2024. And then in 2025, we’ll start to really see that accelerate, and then 2016 and beyond, it really drives. So that’s a little bit of just the cadence piece of it. I think capabilities-wise — You want to touch on that?
Michael Doss: Yes. Look, our package manufacturing facilities are incredibly well capitalized. And if you think about our paperboard manufacturing facility, they are as well, particularly with what we’ve done with Kalamazoo and with Waco, we’ve got a significant cost advantage, as I mentioned, in the most attractive parts of the market. And really where our growth will come from Phil, in terms of the gains we make is all about innovation and driving this whole sustainability message that we have and what we talked about. You heard Maggie go through a lot of the different examples in the markets where we compete. And that’s why we broke that chart out because we want to talk more about the markets and how we’re actually going to win in those different verticals because where the consumer goes, we go and we built that business purposely to allow us to be able to do that.
Melanie Skijus: Okay. I’ll go ahead and take one from the remote audience. The first question is from Ghansham Panjabi of Baird. Would you establish Vision 2025 targets back in 2019, you gave a specific threshold for EPS. Vision 2030 is more of an algorithm on EPS. Why is that? Is it basically now an acknowledgment that margins have reset higher. And going forward, earnings will be more correlated towards end market growth than perhaps internal improvement initiatives.
Michael Doss: Steve, why don’t you go ahead and take it.
Stephen Scherger: Yes. Yes. I mean, thanks, Ghansham, for that. I think part of it is a little bit of what Ghansham was raising is with Vision 2025, we were setting margin goals and targets and EPS came along with that. I think one of the things we’re very excited about is now that we’ve gotten to that level of margin capabilities. So I think plus or minus 20%, that we can actually — because of the value-based pricing, because of the organic growth, we can actually consistently operate the company in a pretty narrow band of margins. And as such, we’re pivoting more towards an ability to maintain good, strong margin capability and allowing the top line growth to provide steady and consistent EBITDA growth as well as EPS growth. And so I think it’s an important pivot to the model. around earning the right, if you will, earning — having the margin profile that we can build upon and having the top line generate EBITDA growth consistently.
Michael Doss: It’s really true. We got a lot of levers to pull there, too, with the cash flow that you outlined. And I was joking with George at the break. I said, I’ll know that we’ve really established ourselves as a consumer packaging company when we move off the paper packaging list and we move into the packagers portion of it. And so that’s also part of how we’re thinking about the goals that we laid out there today because you think about it, our goals and targets, our aspirations, the algorithm really lines up well with the customers that we’re servicing.
