GRAIL, Inc. (GRAL): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on GRAIL, Inc. (GRAL) on Value Investing Subreddit Page by mike-some. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on GRAL. GRAIL, Inc. (GRAL)’s share was trading at $25.93 as of April 15^th.

A doctor in a lab coat examining a patient’s test results that indicates a hereditary cancer.

Grail, the undisputed leader in multi-cancer early detection (MCED), was spun off from Illumina in June 2024 following antitrust pressures in Europe, despite Illumina acquiring it for $8 billion in 2020. The spin-off, which left Illumina with a 14.5% stake, included a $775 million cash infusion—enough for a 2.5-year runway—making Grail’s current market cap roughly equal to its net cash. Its flagship product, Galleri, is a breakthrough blood test capable of detecting up to 50 types of cancer—many of which have no routine screening options—using machine learning to identify cancer-specific methylation patterns in cell-free DNA. Initial results from the PATHFINDER study were promising, and three major trials are underway: the 140,000-person NHS-Galleri trial in the UK, the 20,000-person PATHFINDER II trial with Medicare, and the REFLECTION study via the VA, which led to Tricare coverage for at-risk individuals over 50. The NHS and Medicare trials, with results expected in late 2025 and 2026, could trigger broad reimbursement approval. A successful Medicare rollout alone—at a $300 reimbursement per test, 30% adherence, and one test every two years—could drive $2.25 billion in sales, implying an $11 billion valuation at 5x sales. That’s a potential 14x return from today’s levels, with minimal market awareness.

GRAIL, Inc. (GRAL) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 28 hedge fund portfolios held GRAL at the end of the fourth quarter which was 25 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of GRAL as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than GRAL but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.