Globe Life Inc. (NYSE:GL) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Tom Kalmbach: Hey, Ryan, it’s Tom. I would say that the midpoint, more like $9.25, so it dropped by about $0.10. And really, the main drivers there are the lower premium growth that we had previously — that we mentioned. And then, we are seeing a little bit higher lead costs and agency expenses impacted by inflation. As travel starts increasing and as meetings start increasing, and we have some additional training and recruiting costs that were incurred, we just had that pick up a bit. And then, as I mentioned also higher cost on debt given the higher cost for commercial paper, just the rates are a bit higher. And then, given the share repurchase program, just a slightly higher share count than what we had previously estimated in our prior guidance work.

Ryan Krueger: Okay. Thanks. And then — no, go ahead.

Frank Svoboda: I’ll just say one thing I’d just add on that is with the higher share count, the — wasn’t from the amount that we were anticipating, but just a higher — with the higher share price that we’re at this current time versus where we were back at the time of the last call, obviously, we’re just getting fewer shares purchased with the same amount of dollars.

Ryan Krueger: Good. And then, on the free cash flow guidance of $410 million to $450 million, is there some drag in that still from COVID and non-COVID excess claims that occurred in 2022? I’m trying to think about if there would be a further bounce back as we go beyond 2023 to a more normalized level?

Tom Kalmbach: Yes. The way that we think about that is last year, we had combined — in 2022, we had combined COVID non-COVID about $118 million. And in ’23, we expect about $45 million. So, kind of the difference between those two should result in higher statutory earnings in 2023, which would, therefore, lead to higher dividends to the parent in 2024.

Ryan Krueger: Okay. So, the difference between those two and then tax affected would be basically additive to free cash flow in ’24?

Tom Kalmbach: Exactly, yes.

Ryan Krueger: Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you very much, sir. We’ll now move to John Barnidge calling from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

John Barnidge: Thank you very much. My question is around Direct to Consumer and the mailings. Seems like increased postage and paper cost is more of a secular trend. Are there areas that can be developed beyond just mailings that can be incorporated into the Direct to Consumer marketing efforts?

Matt Darden: Yes. And as I’d mentioned, we’re really focused on growing our Internet and electronic media inquiries in — which results in additional applications and sales. And so that’s been the offset is that, as I mentioned in my comments, continue to grow and is much more a significant part of the business than it was just even three or four years ago. So really, that’s the offset as we’ve declined based on profitability in our models, the direct mail operation, we’ve offset that with an increase on the electronics side. So, overall, those dynamics are going on. But if inflation, depending on how that market dynamic plays out over the next several quarters, we will continue to adjust throughout the year based on the returns that we’re seeing in the profitability.

So, overall, we want to make sure that we’re maintaining our profitability targets on each of these campaigns and we’re flexible enough that we can adjust that throughout the year as market conditions warrant.

John Barnidge: Great. Thank you. And a follow-up question. I know the indirect mortality is in the COVID estimate. Is that — you anticipate tapered over the year or is present an equal level throughout the year? Just trying to dimension if further away that from the pandemic portion of that degrades.

Tom Kalmbach: For 2023, you mean?