Global Payments Inc. (NYSE:GPN) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Jeff Sloan: Yes. So, what I would say is our cycle guide, I would like to start with that Will and just work in reverse. So, our cycle guide of low-double digits includes M&A in it. For example, on the revenue side as well as the expense side, capital deployment has always been a part. And what we have said historically, Will, even before €˜21, probably going back to €˜15, €˜18, is that M&A, for example, can add up to a couple of hundred basis points of revenue in any given period. And capital deployment generally gets 2 to 3 points kind of earnings growth and has historically for a company, whether it’s buybacks or M&A or anything else. So, that’s the overall generality. Then if you go to your question, on Pages 9 and 10.

So, what we are trying to get at is we only have three quarters of EVO in 2023. Obviously, we have a disposition coming in 2023, where our cycle guide doesn’t assume we are selling 10% of the revenue of the company, which is what’s in the disposition. So, we tried to back that out to give you a better sense of the 8% to 9%. And then obviously, the exit period also has a currency assumption, as I mentioned a minute ago, and there is a bit of a currency headwind over the year. So, I think the answer to your question is as we accelerate merger integration with EVO, we expect to see revenue acceleration, 125, Will, is just an expense number. So, as we integrate EVO towards the end of the year, as we look at revenue opportunities when it closes beyond expense opportunities, if you add those 1 to 2 points, which is back to our cycle guide over the last number of cycles, you are exiting the year at 8% to 9% on Page 9.

Obviously, it’s a bit of a currency thing there, 7% to 8%, add 1 to 2 points, just on EVO alone, and you are going to get to double digits of revenue. I mentioned a minute ago in response to Jason’s question that on earnings ex dispositions this year were 15% to 16%, and EVO were 17% to 19%. So, I think we are kind of at the earnings number with a full year effect of EVO ex the disposition. And I think we are within sharing distance on the revenue side. Then lastly, I would say, we kind of alluded to this in the investor conference, the shifting business mix on the issuer business towards more B2B, I just mentioned a minute ago in response to Vasu’s question, our 4.5% to 5.5% of 5% in the middle, I think it’s right in line with what we said historically.

But obviously, that 5.5% is towards the high end of 6%. So, it’s still like we would have said 4% to 6%, like here it is 5.5%. And obviously, it was a lower number in €˜21 and for most of €˜22 to end up the year at 5%. As that mix continues to shift, we see another 50 basis points, 60 basis points coming from B2B as the wins continue to roll in from things like CaixaBank, etcetera. That business should accelerate. Now, you are on top of 10% to 11%, which is our cycle guide with M&A in it. So, I think Will, exiting this year, we are kind of right on track to be where we would like to be from a cycle guide point of view. I would also say, as we said both in the press release and our prepared remarks today, we hit the sight for calendar €˜22, let’s not lose sight of that, constant currency neutral and ex dispositions.

So, I think we are right, we are at we want to be despite all the uncertainties in the current macro environment.

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