Global Blue Group Holding AG (NYSE:GB) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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So if in Europe we are now back to almost 80%, the recovery of France is dragging down the performance in Europe because usually choice want first to go in France and then go on other countries. Last element in terms of information about China is the visa issuance, which show that, one, things are going better because we see more and more countries where Chinese can get their visa in less than seven days, but we still see that France and Germany, which are two key countries in terms of traction for Chinese, remain, I would say, difficult if you want or lengthy if you want to get the visa. So those things should improve in the coming months. But for now, obviously, they are still one of the reasons why we see this lower number of shoppers versus air capacity.

But again, this should improve. Last but not least, if we project ourselves in the coming months, coming quarter, obviously you know this slide it’s how we simulate based on the recovery on Mainland China what could be the recovery of the EBITDA of the Group. And as usual, I will give you a little bit of detail. So in gray, you will recognize the Q3 annual figures at €159 million that Roxane mentioned a few minutes ago, which implied a 52% recovery in terms of mainland China, if we simulate a recovery, which hopefully will come in the next quarter of this level of recovery. For example, being at 100% of recovery, you can see that the implied level of EBITDA would be around €200 million in this slide to be precise, €202 million. This slide is just there to help you to understand based on different level of simulation of Chinese, what could be the impact — positive impact on Global Blue EBITDA of next year, which is a good transition to talk about guidance and targets.

So, we issue guidance and target in September. So two comments there, first, we are confirming our guidance for full year ’23 and ’24 of €145 million to €165 million. Having in mind that we reach after nine months, €150 million, and for ’24, ’25, we are looking for an EBITDA above 200 million. With that in mind, you see also the reiteration of the objective of leverage ratio below €2.5 million. Nothing has changed, but we want to reaffirm those targets and guidance. And last but not least, just to remind you that Global Blue is well aged in terms of inflation, because the top line of Global Blue, i.e., the volume, the SIS is directly linked to the luxury bronze price increase, which have grown and which will continue to grow higher than the inflation.

And there and on the opposite side, just to remind you if ever we are getting into a recession, which seems to be not the case in the latest academic scenario, but if ever this is the case, to remind you also that we are well hedged against that, thanks to this high network individuals, which are less sensitive to the economic shock that I was showing to you before. So, in summary, a very healthy Q3 with a positive trend in January and a very strong work of the team in order to strengthen the balance sheet and then leverage the Company. So, thanks for the listening. And as usual, you can contact our Investor Relations, Frances Gibbons, who will arrange a one-on-one meeting between you, Roxane, and myself. Thank you very much.

End of Q&A:

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