Genius Sports Limited (NYSE:GENI) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

In terms of contract renegotiations, look, we as a business have built this over being good partners to our sports, our sportsbooks, and it’s something we take very seriously. And when we think about our contract renegotiations, obviously, we want everybody to be successful. And, therefore, the way that we help our bookmaker partners be successful is through new product launches, such as BetVision, such as Edge, which is increasing margins even though that product is very young, and it puts us in a place to be deeper integrated with our bookmakers and generally to do a better job and hopefully share from the upside in the industry. So I think, yes, all of these things support the business and the investment strategy that we’ve had over the time, and we feel, as I said, cautiously optimistic.

Jordan Bender: Thank you very much.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Chad Beynon from Macquarie. Please go ahead.

Chad Beynon: Morning, Mark and Nick, team, thanks for taking my question. For ’24, wanted to ask about the guide, particularly the sports betting guide. I think, Nick, you said for ’23 North American GGR rose 50% for the market. You, obviously, benefited from that given the NFL contract. I think for ’24, we’re all expecting North American GGR to be up well into the teens or the 20s. But how are you thinking about that non-NFL piece of the betting market? Can that continue to grow, let’s call it, high-singles, low-doubles outside of the U.S.? Thanks.

Nick Taylor: Hi, Chad, it’s Nick. Yes, Europe has shown some really strong growth, as you can see in our numbers this year, and we commented quite a lot of it, I think, in our Q3 earnings call, Q4 as well. It slowed down a little bit in Q4 in Europe because it was comping against a much bigger Q4 in 2022. I mean, the way we’re looking at it is, broadly, I’d say that we’re expecting our U.S. business to probably grow at roundabout 20% year-on-year, and our European business to be growing at roundabout 15%. So still very healthy growth coming from Europe.

Mark Locke: And I think the sort of macro – sorry to jump in, one of the macros in Europe is quite interesting at the moment. I mean, even though the growth is sort of, I guess, less aggressive than in the States, you’re still seeing positive signs. I mean, Belgium coming online and legalizing betting for people over ’21 is a good sign. And I think that there’s still a lot of potential left in the market.

Chad Beynon: Great. Thank you. And then as you look at additional technology, kind of, tuck-ins or bolt-ons, what are you seeing in the public-private valuation spread? Are there still opportunities to kind of add on to Second Spectrum, BetVision, et cetera, just kind of overall in the market what you’re seeing?

Mark Locke: Yes, it’s a great question, actually. Look, as the businesses move to a cash flow positive and we continue to execute, obviously, our mind is much – we’re much more focused on potential and growth through acquisition. One of the challenges we have is, to be honest, is we sort of have a ton of technology. I mean, we’ve got – with Second Spectrum and some of the other acquisitions, as well as our own internal development, we’ve got an awful lot of stuff that we need. So we’re not seeing any sort of screaming gaps in our technology stack. So when we look at the M&A market, it’s got to be quite compelling on a few fronts. It’s got to be compelling on the basis that the technology is really required and we can deploy it well and generate real profitability from it.

We’ve got to have a bit of a focus on the level of distraction and stuff, and ultimately the price that this technology – some of these technology companies are going for. And we are seeing – we feel very strong, we feel like we’re in a really good place, and we’re seeing, I think, other parts of the market, I think, a bit of opportunity, maybe there’s a few areas that are struggling. But unless the price of these is really compelling, combined with the technology that they’re offering, these are harder deals to justify.

Chad Beynon: Thank you both. Appreciate it.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Robin Farley from UBS. Please go ahead.

Robin Farley: Great. Thank you. So your in-play is growing at a very high rate, and your NFL GGR, I’m sure is, too. I think we only see the total GGR growth for you. I’m just wondering if you could break out the in-play as a percent of total NFL GGR. I see that it’s over 20%. I was thinking about this period versus last year to see that change in kind of share of GGR that’s coming from in-play. Thanks.

Nick Taylor: Hi, Robin, it’s Nick. Yes, the proportion is roundabout 20% of NFL bets were in-play. Yes, the GGR for the year on in-play, I think, was up 140%. And the margins as well, I think we called out in the prepared remarks, win margins were up in ’23 compared to 2022 as well.

Robin Farley: Did the share of NFL GGR coming from in-play grow year-over-year? Is it pretty much sort of in line with the growth of GGR overall for the NFL?

Nick Taylor: Yes, I think the in-play GGR outgrew the other betting on GGR on NFL, and therefore, inevitably the mix will have shifted towards in-play position.

Robin Farley: Okay, thanks. And then if you could just clarify how much FX movement since Q3 added to your Q4 revenue? Thanks.

Nick Taylor: Yes, actually, foreign exchange was a slight headwind, not a tailwind in Q4. I think when we guided in Q3, we’re at 1.25. And I think the average rate for Q4 was around [1.245]. So it was roundabout 300,000 to 400,000 headwind, not a tailwind for Q4.

Robin Farley: Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Eric Martinuzzi from Lake Street Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Eric Martinuzzi: Yes, wanted to talk about some of the emerging opportunities. So what’s your take as far as election year 2024 with any new states that you could potentially kind of green light the sports betting.