Genius Sports Limited (GENI): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Genius Sports Limited (GENI) on wallstreetbets Subreddit Page by not_totally. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on GENI. Genius Sports Limited (GENI)’s share was trading at $9.53 as of Feb 20th. GENI’s forward P/E was 238.10 according to Yahoo Finance.

Genius Sports (GENI) is setting up for a major move, and investors who aren’t paying attention could miss a massive opportunity. The stock has a technical breakout forming, a strong earnings catalyst on deck, and industry momentum pushing it higher. With Q4 earnings set for March 4, the numbers already suggest a blowout quarter. Revenue is projected to hit $511 million for 2024, a 24% YoY increase, while EBITDA is expected to jump 61% to $86 million. Cash flow has surged to $135 million, nearly doubling from last quarter’s $69 million. The company is firing on all cylinders, and a strong earnings beat could send shares soaring.

The chart is flashing all the right signals for a breakout. The $10 resistance level is the key battleground—once breached, the path to $15.50 is wide open, with $22 as the next major target. Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD are turning bullish, and volume has been increasing on recent breakout attempts, signaling strong buyer interest. This is the kind of setup that traders dream of heading into a major catalyst.

DraftKings (DKNG) just provided further validation for GENI’s upside. DraftKings’ latest earnings report crushed expectations, with revenue up 13% YoY and an increased 2025 revenue forecast. More importantly, they are doubling down on live and in-game betting—exactly where Genius Sports thrives. GENI earns three times more revenue on in-game bets than pre-game wagers, and with sportsbooks prioritizing real-time betting, Genius is positioned as an essential data provider in the industry.

With the stock coiling under key resistance, the upcoming earnings report could be the spark that ignites a major rally. If GENI breaks $10 with volume, the upside potential is massive, making this a high-reward play leading into earnings.

Genius Sports Limited (GENI) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 32 hedge fund portfolios held GENI at the end of the third quarter which was 27 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of GENI as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than GENI but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.