General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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This was done by exiting unprofitable markets, strengthening the portfolio, leveraging our strong brands to significantly improve pricing and mix, all while simultaneously driving down costs. They’ve done amazing work as a team and they should be lauded for that. GM Financial delivered strong results with Q4 EBIT-adjusted of $800 million, down $400 million year-over-year, primarily due to lower net lease vehicle income and higher cost of funds, partially offset by growth in the retail and commercial loan portfolios. Used vehicle prices have declined but continue to run above the contract residual value with a Q4 off lease return rate below 10%. Overall portfolio credit metrics continue to be strong in part due to a predominantly prime credit mix with net charge-offs up slightly due to moderation and credit performance, but still running below pre-pandemic levels.

GM Financial paid dividends of $1.7 billion in 2022, and we expect similar dividends in 2023. Corporate expenses were $400 million in the quarter, flat year-over-year as we continue to invest in growth initiatives and drive productivity. Cruise expenses were $500 million in the quarter, up $200 million year-over-year, driven mainly by modifications to equity awards resulting in an accounting change in compensation expense. Our optimism continues to grow based on the great progress Cruise made in 2022, and their plans for rapid scaling and operationalizing of the business will result in a modest increase in cost during 2023. Let’s now look towards 2023 for GM overall, which I know is a key focal point for everyone. While the environment remains uncertain, at a high level I’m pleased to report that when you exclude the impacts of lower pension income and GM Financial contribution, we expect to drive consistently strong core auto operating performance in 2023.

This continues the trend we saw in 2022 and highlights the strong execution throughout the organization. Our plan is to continue to prioritize growth initiatives such as Cruise and BrightDrop, while investing to accelerate our transition to EVs to take advantage of our vertical integration and local sourcing strategies. Assuming a 15 million total industry volume and under current conditions, we expect EBIT-adjusted in the $10.5 billion to $12.5 billion range, EPS diluted-adjusted in the $6 to $7 per share range, and adjusted automotive free cash flow in the $5 billion to $7 billion range. At GM Financial the strong credit performance in historically high used vehicle prices resulted in extraordinary results over the last two years. For 2023, we expect earnings to normalize in the mid $2 billion range.

We expect volume and mix combined to be a slight tailwind with volumes up 5% to 10% year-over-year, and mix partially offsetting as we continue to increase production in the sedan, small SUV and crossover segments along with GM International volume growth. Regarding North America pricing, while we anticipate incentives will increase from the record low levels we saw in 2022, we expect this headwind to be partially offset by realizing the full year benefit of MSRP increases on many model year 2023 vehicles, particularly full-sized SUVs and trucks, as well as pricing we expect to achieve on our new launches in 2023. We’re also anticipating pricing actions outside North America primarily to help offset FX headwinds. Overall, we see commodities and logistics costs as a slight tailwind.

Our longer-term steel and logistics contracts, which help protect us from higher market costs over the last two years, renewed at higher rates in the second half of last year. This combined with the strategic initiatives to locally source battery raw materials is expected to largely offset the tailwind we’re seeing from lower raw material prices on our spot and indexed exposures. The $1 billion lower pension income impacts our fixed costs. This non-cash item does not impact our core auto operating results, but will be a headwind when comparing year-over-year in 2023. As Mary mentioned, we are very focused on keeping automotive controllable fixed costs in check despite our growth initiatives, which is why we are announcing a cost reduction program to take out $2 billion of costs over the next two years.

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