GATX Corporation (NYSE:GATX) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Bascome Majors: I mean — but to follow up, it certainly seems like your enthusiasm on something happening sooner rather than later is different than it has been in recent quarters. I’m just trying to understand if there are new assets that have presented themselves or if valuations are coming down broadly across the board, and really just trying to square that with your enthusiasm for continuing to generate quite a bit of remarketing income in the North American rail business? Thanks.

Bob Lyons: Well, I don’t think our view has changed materially over the course of the last few quarters, or last few years for that matter. There’s often more portfolios talked about than actually come to market. That proves through up or down markets. Would be an interested buyer? Always. Are we going to be extremely disciplined? Always. I think the earlier — the comment earlier on this call really referred to smaller opportunities that we’ve seen, one-off asset-type acquisitions that we’ve been able to execute because we like a particular asset. But as far as bigger portfolios are concerned, I don’t really have any other comment to add on that. Would we be interested? Of course, but have no insight or thought on anything taking place in the market.

Bascome Majors: Thank you both.

Bob Lyons: Yes, thank you.

Operator: The next question is from Justin Bergner with Gabelli Funds. Your line is open.

Justin Bergner: Good morning, Bob. Good morning, Tom. Good morning, Shari.

Shari Hellerman: Morning.

Bob Lyons: Paul is offended, Justin, that you left him out.

Justin Bergner: Oh, good morning, Paul. I haven’t met you in person. Yes, but good morning as well.

Paul Titterton: Good morning, Justin.

Justin Bergner: First question would just be on some of the market dynamic, so, you talked about, I think, sequential low double-digit lease rates in tank and freight which would — have been acceleration from my guess, the 5% or less last quarter. So, what’s going on to drive that acceleration from your vantage point?

Paul Titterton: So, it’s really more of the same phenomenon we’ve talked about in recent calls, which is to say you have an existing railcar market that is relatively tight, and that’s been driven by a fair bit of scrappage. It’s been driven by relatively low velocity on the part of the railroads. And it’s been driven by the fact that, thanks to high new car prices and labor availability, the new car production that we’re seeing is not consistent with past upswings in the market. So, you have less new capacity coming in, you’ve had older capacity going out, and you’ve had relatively low velocity, coupled with what we think is a continued relatively robust underlying demand to move freight by rail. So, it’s really all of those things that have created tightness in the fleet and that have allowed us to increase prices.

Justin Bergner: Got you, all right. So, the new car production constraints are maybe not something that were as high like before, but a part of the equation, I guess?

Paul Titterton: Yes, that is correct. I mean, if you look back to the crude boom, you had an industry that produced new cars at a rate of up to 80,000 a year. And at current production levels, the industry is going to be nowhere near that level. So, that’s one of the key differences in this market.

Justin Bergner: Okay, that’s helpful. And then the scrappage rate, I guess, at least on your book, so about 500 cars per quarter. That’s still a healthy scrappage rate. And I assume it’s reflective of what’s going on industry-wide. Is that sort of a reasonable run rate going forward or are going to go below normal scrappage given how many cars were scrapped in 2021?