GATX Corporation (NYSE:GATX) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Bascome Majors: Bob, to follow up on that last question, what is the shape of the expiring rate of your North American portfolio as we go forward one, two, three years, understanding that, that portfolio may change and this won’t hold?

Tom Ellman: Yes. So as you know, we provide guidance at the January earnings call every year, and we’ll give some information about the exploration profile going forward. If you looked at us over a long period of time, you’d see that in some of the lower years, it’s 13,000 to 15,000 railcars expiring. Some of the higher years, it’s a little over 20,000. So we’ll give more exact guidance in January, but it’s — it –, that gives you some kind of range of where you might expect it.

Bascome Majors: Yes. But from a rate perspective, does the expiring rate go down similar up next year in the North American portfolio?

Bob Lyons: Yes. It’s — we will get into that in January, Bascome, we’ll lay that out for you. But as I said previously, in terms of my confidence level and positive differential, there’s a lot of runway there.

Bascome Majors: Thank you for that. And just we don’t talk as much about that concept on the International book. Is there anything unique there? Should we think fairly pro rata similar cyclical economics to kind of the tops-down directional view we just talked about in North America?

Bob Lyons: Yes, the actual lease terms in Europe are much shorter, typically than they are in North America. That’s been the case for decades. It’s really hard just from a commercial standpoint to move the needle much on term. So you see a greater percentage of the fleet rolling over each year in Europe. But also, historically, the lease rate variability is much lower than it is in North America. That tends to be a single-digit up or down percentage-wise. Good environment, bad environment, you don’t see the rate swings like you do in North America. We’re certainly pushing rates higher because in certain car types in Europe right now, the environment is in our favor to do that. But nothing on the magnitude that you would see in North America, for example, an LPI of plus 33%. You know, a really good renewal in Europe is in the 5% to 10% plus range, and a bad day if a couple of percentage points off.

Bascome Majors: Thank you for that clarification. Just one last one. The — you’ve talked pretty constructively about your momentum in a lot of your businesses, both last quarter and this quarter. As we look into next year without necessarily getting into quantitative guidance, but what keeps you up at night? What are the risks in you’re continuing to deliver the kind of results we’ve seen from you over the last couple of years here? Just curious where we should watch and sharpen our pencils on downside potential. Thank you.

Bob Lyons: Sure. Well, from a — I’ll go back to a question that came up previously in the call with regards to, the one area of outperformance this year has really been Portfolio Management on the engine side. But what’s encouraging to me is behind that, whether it’s Rail International, Rail Europe, Trifleet, what have you, India. We have continued to build a really solid foundation for the future here, whether it’s managing the existing lease portfolio and certainly, through the investment volume that we’re seeing last year and this year, we’re putting a lot of capital to work in really attractive returns for GATX for our shareholders for the long term. So I feel very good about that. I feel really good about where the business is today, how it’s been managed in the position we’re in.