Frontline Ltd. (NYSE:FRO) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Greg Lewis: Lars, clearly, you guys have been doing a lot of work. Thank you for the presentation. I did have some questions around the impact of the Russian crude embargo. And really, I guess, a couple of questions I have is as these volumes need to go farther field because they got diverted away from Europe, what types of port restrictions are there from these export areas? And really, what I’m wondering is, can there be the potential for — in a place like the Gulf of Mexico, there’s a lot of wide — transfers as smaller vessels then move out to move oil on larger vessels for their final destination. Is that something that logistically we should be thinking about happening, which probably further tightens the market?

Lars Barstad: Yes. It’s — first of all, it’s a good question. And this is kind of evolving as we go along. I’ve previously been kind of talking a lot about the dark web of oil and the markets involving Iran and Venezuela. I’d say the Russian trade, I tend to refer to as a gray market because these are all good vessels that sailing in accordance to class uninsured potentially in other markets than shipping normally does and so forth. But what you’re referring to here is that this largely inefficient trade, which is going on now will kind of grow and that you would use bigger tonnage to take kind of benefits of volume of scale and so forth, at least if Asia is going to continue to take Russian crude. And yes, we’re actually already seeing this, not inside the kind of EU territory, but we are seeing other areas where STS operations are happening.

The very, very concerning part of that is that not all of these areas are suited to do an asses safety and pollution risk increases. So — but we’ve also seen there’s been a very high activity in the sale and purchase market or the asset market for kind of more vintage tonnage, which we are expecting to see kind of entering this market. I’m talking about the 17 to 17.5 or even 15-year-olds of Suezmaxes — that have been purchased recently that may kind of appear in order to make this trade a bit more efficient and to scale it towards the price cap coming in.

Greg Lewis: And then my other question was more around — and you touched on a little bit around the un-insurance or insurance. Realizing that every trade — this has happened in the past in parts of the Middle East and elsewhere. As I think about a cargo looking for insurance, I guess, in the gray and the black market, I guess is that cargo — generally speaking, are those partners insurable and really, is it something that’s usually provided by the buyer or the seller for the shipping?

Lars Barstad: It’s — so it’s kind of the environmental risk, once the cargo is aboard ship, it’s taken care of by the ship owner. But you’re pointing to a very good question here. Kind of Russia has a big insurance market, like internal insurance market. But if that insurance market can underwrite this type of risk is obviously a big question. And — but then again, kind of with this price cap — and we don’t know how this is going to play out. We have received some indications from OFAC on how they kind of look at — look to organize the price cap. But we don’t really know the fine details on how this price cap is going to be imposed. And — but I’m saying that because there could be a scenario here where actually oil will be sold according to the price cap and then actually the sanctions wouldn’t apply.

So, the insurance market would actually be able to — or the western insurance market would actually be able to service it, so. But just to repeat, there is a question mark. If this oil continues to trade in a manner where insurance is not certain, that’s obviously a big concern and a problem.