Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULCC) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Daniel Shurz : So, first I want to mention with regard to this is, we are obviously growing at the moment faster than our intended medium term trend line growth. We’ve committed to mid-teens growth being our standard medium term trend line. And as we kind of come out of COVID, we are to recover capacity and we’re continuing to grow up and we are continue to grow this year at a rate in the 20s percent. So that tended to push this up on and rapidly scrambling to get you an actual number. That is already, but we are – But look, we’re always going to have our – we are going to tend to have a higher percent of the network in development broadly, because we are growing and we have a – we are always looking to add – we are always looking to add new capacity. And it’s – look, the thing at the moment is we are adding new airports to the network. We are adding join the dock service around the country. I’ll get back to you on the other exact on the current percentages.

Barry Biffle: But the only thing I would say is look, if you’re in the 20s on growth, that just tells you right there, that is all new and then, at every given moment, you’ve got anywhere from 15% to 35% of your implying you did a year before that didn’t work. So you redeploy it. That’s kind of how growth airlines work. And so, that’s going to push you, I’m just say 20% or 25% from last year 30% actually. So you’re in the over 30% is immature,

Michael Linenberg: Okay.

Barry Biffle: And so, yes, we have a significant amount and I think this is an underappreciated part of Frontier. I mean, people have picked on us about underperforming our historical margins, but I think what people don’t grasp is that, when you’re growing and 10 plus points higher than your target rate and you take a 20% to 30% discount on that that’s just a flat-out three-point drag on margin and it could likely be even more just simply because you’re also still coming out of COVID. So, but that’s a long way of telling you. Yes, it is over 30% in the immature stage and that will come down as our growth moderate into 2024 where we’re now expected to be in the mid-teens, mid to upper teens.

Michael Linenberg: Okay. And the reason I was asking, Barry and Daniel is that, look, you’ve done a nice job on ancillary, right? I mean you’re up, year-over-year five bucks moving, you’re at 80 now. But when I look at the base fares, you’re down almost $20 and so the question is, what you’re making up on ancillary, you’re losing on base. And presumably, you’re a growth carrier and demand stimulation, but we’re also in a pretty high inflationary environment and we are seeing average fares for a lot of carriers they’re flat up and now they’re moderating as we move forward. But to see that down as much as it is in the June quarter, presumably that’s because they’re like, you said, you’re in a lot of relatively new markets call it a third.

And so, you’re engaging in demand stimulation, which is your model I guess. And maybe, maybe I’m answering your question or maybe I’m missing it. If there’s anything you can add on that, because that’s a pretty meaningful drop on the base fare.

Barry Biffle: Look, we are very aware, Mike and that is why we’re extremely focused on getting back to double-digit margins. And a big part of that is getting our growth rate normalized, and we’re largely back to a normal growth rate once we get to 2024. Yes, we have swallowed a lot of capacity to get the utilization back and, and we’re finally do most through that. And yes, it has a corresponding impact to fares and we need that to stimulate. The good news is, we’re growing everything, whether it be your emails, your frequent flyers your Discount Den members should go out. So the good news is that, those things are keeping up with our growth. And so as that moderates, we expect to see the benefit of that as we move into 2024.