Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

So we’re in a very good place. And I think the strategy is playing out the way we anticipated which is those businesses would have more durable, higher growth rates and ultimately, that would benefit Fortive not only on the growth side but on the margin front. We certainly saw that in ’23, you absolutely see that with our double-digit EPS kind of numbers that we’ll show in ’24.

Robert Mason: Very good. Just as a follow-up, specific to Sensing. How do you, some of your semi cap customers are certainly starting to tee up expectations around a better ’25I assume that’s, you didn’t mention that end market, specifically aerospace, defense, food and beverage, maybe do better this year. But how are you thinking about that market turning in that business for you, semi-cap equipment?

James Lico: Yes. Well, in Sensing, we’re about 6 quarters of negative order rates. So we don’t anticipate to see the overall over rate start to change the book-to-bill there probably in and around 1, in the second half, for sure, probably starting in sometime in the second quarter. So we start to see things move. We didn’t talk about it but number, maybe more broadly about Sensing. One of the things we saw in the fourth quarter was rather than get 12-month blanket orders which we would typically get with OEMs. We got 3-month [indiscernible] orders. So we will see that those orders pick up probably in the second half. So that’s the state of the world. Relative to the semi index and where it’s at, we’re starting to see the green shoots of customers that are starting to talk about orders and our businesses that are maybe in the earlier stages there, a little bit of Setra, a little bit in our KEITHLEY business at Tektronix.

they’re starting to see customers talking about the second half of this year. So, we would — I would think that just overall, we’ll start to see some things. We’re not anticipating a big step up there. We’ll let the [indiscernible] patterns determine that. But we do anticipate at least seeing some of that turn in the second half of the year.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin from Bank of America.

Andrew Obin: Yes. Just maybe and I don’t know if, when you were talking before Sensing, you were specifically referring to Sensing or Tek. But maybe just to confirm, what’s happening with Tek book-to-bill? And what kind of exit rate are we at a Tek right? Just sort of if you look at the peer orders, Keysight, NATI, you still have orders down, let’s call it, mid-teens. So to understand correctly, we’re thinking that based on the feedback we’re getting on the comps, revenues will be up low to mid-single digits next year, right? Is that the right framework?

James Lico: For Tektronix, we think business will be about low single digits for the year. So just from a revenue perspective, we’ve had 5 quarters of negative orders there. We’d probably see that in the first quarter. We’ll start to see things turn. The book-to-bill starts to turn in and around the second quarter there; so just to kind of give you a sense. And that’s — we’ve had aerospace and defense has been good. It continues to be good. but it’s mostly broadly around electronics and things like that. So some semiconductor customers as well. So and the comments I made around Sensing, semi, I also made a comment about KEITHLEY which is the most of the exposure we have in Tektronix relative the semiconductor. So we think the business is a good place.

Obviously, low single digits in the fourth quarter against a 20% comp from a year prior. So still in a good place, record year for Tektronix from a revenue perspective. But probably a quarter or 2 here of absorbing, continuing to absorb some of the market dynamics we described and but the business is in a good shape and exit rate into ’25 probably in a good place.

Andrew Obin: And where are we on book-to-bill, sorry?

James Lico: Well, I think in fourth quarter, probably 0.85, probably but we’re always below 1 in the fourth quarter.

Andrew Obin: Got you. And just a broader question because it’s certainly been a weird ’23 and it seems like ’24 is going to be strange as well. But I think at your Analyst Day and it’s just sort of going back to Julian’s question, you did outline the ’25 target but you also outlined longer-term targets, right? And if you look at ’25 target with sort of, I think, CAGR is 12.5% and longer-term targets, 13.5%, right? We printed 9% EPS growth last year. This year, target is 9% to 12%. I told to get there, there’s cushion here, right? Invetech is out of the way. We’re probably going to do some M&A. But from your perspective, what needs to sort of go back to normal change from a macro standpoint, what’s the biggest lever that needs to change, right, to sort of get back “normal” where you guys can sort of accelerate EPS growth from what we’ve seen last year. And what we’re sort of guiding to this year? Or is that all just M&A? Sorry for an extensive question but yes.

James Lico: Well, I think when you look at our track record over 4 years and what we try to do is not take any one particular year because when you average them out, when we’re talking about the out years here, we’re talking about the average, right? And when you look at the average, they’re not too different future versus prior history. So I think what passes a bit pull-off here. If you look at the success we’ve had over the last 4 years relative to EPS growth and you sort of fast forward, we continue to use our free cash flow. Obviously, we had interest expense a little higher last year than we anticipated which is why that number would single digit will delever through the year, as you know. So that has some improvements as well.