Forestar Group Inc. (NYSE:FOR) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator: Up next, we have Mike Rehaut with JPMorgan. Please proceed.

Douglas Wardlaw: Hi guys, good afternoon. Doug Wardlaw on for Mike. You guys mentioned throughout this call, your advantage in this industry as other competitors don’t have the same kind of scale as you’ve got. And I was wondering if you can give any — what kind of trends you saw throughout the quarter as the kind of rate volatility progressed throughout the summer, any trends that you saw? In addition to that, what you’re expecting, at least in the early stages of 2024 maybe likely continued rate volatility?

Daniel Bartok: You’re a little fuzzy on the speaker here, but are you looking more from a lot demand standpoint or from a development competition standpoint?

Douglas Wardlaw: More so from a development competition standpoint.

Daniel Bartok: Well, we’re definitely seeing opportunities where other developers are having a hard time getting financing in place and their cost of that financing has run up. So potentially either deals that they’ve tied up that they can now not close on or get developed or literally their banks are saying, no more. I think we saw more of that this last quarter than we did in prior quarters. And it feels like a trend like maybe it will continue to be a little bit more difficult while we have a high interest rate environment and the banks are nervous. But we’re definitely seeing — at least from our standpoint, we’re seeing more opportunities to pick up positions that other people can’t perform on.

Operator: The next question comes from Anthony Pettinari with Citi. Anthony, please proceed.

Anthony Pettinari: Hey, good afternoon. On the full year guide, I’m just — from a big picture perspective, I don’t think you’ve provided full year guidance for the past maybe four or five quarters. Can you talk about what’s giving you confidence now in terms of giving the next year outlook given we still have a fair amount of rate volatility and macro uncertainty?

Daniel Bartok: I think I’d attribute to a couple of things. Last year, between still a lot of supply chain problems and understanding what was happening at the municipal levels for — to get kind of final sign-offs and deliveries, I feel like that has leveled off or at least we have a better understanding of what those impacts are. Where last year, it was a little bit of a wild guess, which is why we didn’t give guidance. The other is the interest rate environment. At this point, if you would have told me that builder sales would still be this strong when mortgage rates are approaching 8%, I would have probably laughed at you and yet the market thinks the builders continue to be selling homes and finding the right market price.

So I think that I feel like there is that little bit more consistency in the builders being able to deliver even in this higher interest rate environment. So I think both of those things make us feel pretty good about giving that guidance at this point.

Anthony Pettinari: Okay. That’s very helpful. And then just in terms of the full year guide, understanding the business is choppy. Is there a way to think about kind of quarterly cadence of deliveries implied in the full year guide? Is there any kind of seasonal dynamic that we should kind of keep in mind? Or any kind of specific cadence kind of baked into your current contracts?

Daniel Bartok: It’s really hard to put any kind of a guess on that. But the one thing I would say, when I look back the last few years, our fourth quarter has always seemed to be the better quarter. But I don’t know that it’s contractually any reason for that or how lots are being delivered. It’s just — again, it feels like the — when you look back and try to analyze the numbers, there appears to be a trend there. But it really varies. I mean, just look at the last 4 quarters of this year, how different one quarter was to the next. I wouldn’t be able to give you a good cadence.