Forestar Group Inc. (NYSE:FOR) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Daniel Bartok: Yes. At this point, looking at the year in front of us, I would assume that it’s going to stay, the mix is going to stay pretty much the same to be honest with you. I think we’re getting a lot more interest from other builders as I think their development partners are also having difficulty getting financing. But overall, when I look at the lots that we’ll be delivering in ’24, that’s all stuff we own already and in development. So I would expect that, that pro rata share would stay pretty flat.

Operator: The next question comes from Truman Patterson with Wolf Research. Please proceed.

Truman Patterson: Hey, good afternoon everyone. I apologize, my phone has been cutting out. So if this is a duplicate. But I did want to follow up on one of Carl’s questions. When we’re looking at your fiscal fourth quarter lot pricing, it increased like 10% year-over-year to $97,000. And if I’m looking at your ’24 guide, looks like ASPs remain at that level moving forward. Is there any geographical mix shift or perhaps consumer mix shift? I’m thinking larger lots more of a move-up focus or is this kind of a true pricing power that you’re currently recognizing?

Mark Walker: Yes. I think it’s true pricing power. I mean with inflationary costs are going up, obviously, it’s market by market, community by community, again, geography and just the mix of the lots themselves. But we are again pricing our lots to market and trying to phase our deliveries in tune, but if we can grab additional returns, we’ll go out and grab additional returns. But I don’t think it’s anything particular to lot size sell for the fourth quarter, geography.

Daniel Bartok: I think fourth quarter is mostly geography. That spike is not a run rate. It was clearly a mixture of some more expensive lots.

Truman Patterson: Okay. Okay. Got you. And then just looking at your closings range of 14.5 to 15.5 lot sales. Trying to understand what would get us towards kind of the lower end or the higher end of that range. And I’m thinking really whether there are any development or muni delays that are kind of built into this or if it’s just purely a function of market demand and potentially changing interest rates or anything along those lines?

Daniel Bartok: Yes. I mean I think low end, we’re going to continue to — the focus on returns and making sure that we’re moving lots and that the subdivisions are active. The interest rate environment out there today makes it a little challenging to guess how the rest of the year is going to play out. But I think we’ve made our best guess. I think we’ve taken, what our knowledge is of the difficulties in different municipalities into account as we do our forecast. So I feel good about that range. The upside could be, I think we’ll have the lots under development and a strong finished lot inventory that if, for some reason, rates come down and home sales accelerate, I think we’ll be in a position to definitely be at the high end of that range.

Truman Patterson: Okay. Perfect. And if I could squeeze one more in. You all brought up value engineering, your lot positions. Could you just elaborate on that a little bit?

Mark Walker: Yes. As we go through and plan our projects, we’re looking to be as efficient as possible with timing and cost. So looking to value engineer basically our plans upfront for better cost, but also for — and we’ve been very disciplined in phasing our developments and remain very flexible to be able to turn on more developments or increase — to step on the gas within an existing development or if we need to take our foot off the gas. But from a value engineering standpoint, it’s really related to calls and timing. But we look at that on every project and when we’re going through due diligence, even after we own an asset as we phase an asset. So it’s something that the teams are doing day in, day out.