Fluence Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:FLNC) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Fluence Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:FLNC) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript November 26, 2024

Operator: Good day, and welcome to Fluence Energy’s fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question and answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, this call may be recorded. I would like to turn the call over to Lex May, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Lexington May: Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Fluence Energy’s fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. A copy of our earnings presentation, press release, and supplementary metric sheet covering financial results along with supporting statements and schedules including reconciliations and disclosures regarding non-GAAP financial measures are posted on the investor relations section of our website at fluenceenergy.com. Joining me this morning on our call are Julian Nebreda, our President and Chief Executive Officer, Ahmed Pasha, our Chief Financial Officer, and Rebecca Boll, our Chief Products Officer. During the course of this call, Fluence management may make certain forward-looking statements regarding various matters relating to our business and company that are not historical facts.

Such statements are based upon the current expectations and certain assumptions and are therefore subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Many factors could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings for our forward-looking statements and for more information regarding certain risks and uncertainties that could impact our future results. You are cautioned to not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of today. Also, please note that the company undertakes no duty to update or revise forward-looking statements for new information. This call will also reference non-GAAP measures that we view as important in assessing the performance of our business. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measure is available in our earnings materials on the company’s Investor Relations website.

Following our prepared comments, we will conduct a question and answer session with our team. During this time, to give more participants an opportunity to speak on this call, please limit yourself to one initial question and one follow-up. Thank you very much. I’ll now turn the call over to Julian.

Julian Nebreda: Thank you, Lex. I would like to say a warm welcome to our investors, analysts, and employees participating on today’s call. I will review our Q4 and full-year results briefly and then provide an update on our business and the strong growth prospects we continue to see. Ahmed will then go into more detail on our financial results and outlook. Beginning with slide four, we delivered strong financial performance. More specifically, we reported a profit for fiscal year 2024, our first ever on a full-year basis, and generated free cash flow. These results demonstrate that we can generate strong profitable growth at scale. We also met or exceeded our outlook in all key metrics. More specifically, we generated a record of approximately $2.7 billion in revenue with a 12.6% gross margin, earned $78 million of adjusted EBITDA, which is almost $140 million higher than fiscal year 2023, and $18 million better than the midpoint of our expectations.

Second, we made good progress in demonstrating the value of our services and digital businesses as we achieved our goal of increasing our annual recurring revenue by 80% to $100 million. We continue to make strides in our digital software, and it is getting acknowledged by the market. Earlier this month, Fluence was named the top integrator on the Guidehouse Insight leaderboard for energy storage software. The recognition highlights our exceptional technological development and strong partner relations. Third, to support our future growth, we continue to add to our backlog with another strong quarter of more than $1 billion of order intake. Our backlogs have grown this year by 55% to $4.5 billion, providing strong visibility to future revenue.

And finally, due to our proactive approach to margin expansion and working capital management, we generated $72 million of free cash flow for the year and ended the quarter with $518 million of cash.

Julian Nebreda: Turning to slide five, I would like to provide an overview of the market growth of energy storage, which continues to surpass expectations and why we do not expect the growth to decline in light of the recent changes in the US government administration. First, after a long period of stagnation, we are seeing electricity demand growth globally, which is driven by rapid economic development, the growing deployment of data centers, and electrification of sectors such as transportation, commercial building, and selected industrial processes. As an example, the US electricity demand is projected to rise 15% to 20% in the next decade, and we are seeing similar trends in other countries. Second, renewable energy has been the fastest-growing source of power generation for a significant time already.

Current growth projections will put renewables at about 50% of global electricity production in 2030. This rapid adoption reflects the attractive levelized cost of renewable energy and the faster deployment time for renewable energy as compared to gas and nuclear. For most markets, renewable energy paired with battery energy storage systems (BESS) is the fastest and most economical way to meet electricity needs.

Julian Nebreda: Third, the energy storage industry has been benefiting from declining lithium carbonate prices, which declined by almost 50% year over year. The lower input cost has reduced the cost of battery storage systems by 40%. These more favorable price levels have resulted in a 140% increase over the last twelve months in our volume of orders from existing and new customers as their projects became more attractive. Turning to slide six, customer demand for energy storage is reflected in our current backlog of $4.5 billion, the highest level in our history. It is important to note that during the last two years, we have experienced the highest interest rate in three decades, and despite that, our backlog has doubled since 2022. This higher volume sets a good foundation for future growth in our recurring services and digital business.

Julian Nebreda: Turning to slide seven, the strong growth prospects for energy storage are also reflected in our pipeline. As a reminder, our pipeline is a rolling 24-month view, thus giving us confidence in our ability to continue our growth trajectory. I am pleased to share that we have increased our pipeline by $500 million from the end of last quarter to approximately $21 billion currently. This is particularly impressive considering that during the quarter, we converted $1.2 billion into backlog. To provide more perspective, our pipeline has increased 60% from this time last year, which reflects significant growth prospects for energy storage. We continue to see a very robust international market, which will further diversify our geographic mix in the coming year. Nearly half of our $21 billion pipeline is in the US market, and the rest in the international market, with Germany, Australia, Canada, and Chile representing the bulk of it.

Julian Nebreda: Turning to slide eight, speed and innovation are key elements of our strategy for growth. To that point, we have been the first to bring innovation to the US by offering domestic contained battery technology to the US storage market and to establish a robust US supply chain. Even before the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), we recognized the need for a US-based supply chain and began localizing our operations to reduce reliance on Chinese imports. As shown on slide eight, this US supply chain is essential to delivering our domestic content offering. Today, we can offer a 100% non-Chinese product supported by six US production facilities owned and operated by our supply chain partners, five of which are located in states that were won by and benefit from the IRA manufacturing incentive.

Development of this domestic supply chain has created thousands of associated jobs and strengthened our commitment to US energy security. Even though we believe that a full repeal of the IRA is unlikely, we have positioned Fluence to be successful both under the current regime or under a new regime defined by hard times. I am pleased to announce that in September, we began producing our first US-made battery modules at our Utah facility. This model production line is equipped with cutting-edge robotics and automation technology, enhancing both our production efficiency and product quality. Additionally, this month, we received our UL 1973 certification at the module level, signifying that our modules meet the highest standards for safety, performance, and quality.

The certification is a significant milestone, reinforcing our commitment to delivering reliable, top-tier energy storage products.

Julian Nebreda: Moving to slide nine, as you may recall, in the summer of 2023, we reached an agreement with ASC to secure two dedicated battery cell production lines at their facility in Tennessee. This US-based cell production provides us with a distinct competitive advantage, allowing us to offer American-made products to our customers, a unique capability among our peers. The first line started producing its initial batch cells as part of the commissioning process and is expected to begin ramping up production at the end of the year. As battery cells are produced, they will be transported to our dedicated manufacturing facility in Utah. Here, we will produce our US-made battery modules and integrate them with other components to create finished products ready for deployment at customer sites.

We anticipate a gradual ramp-up in module production over the coming quarters as we scale this capability, which is a key step in fulfilling our commitment to our robust localized supply chain. We have recently made the strategic decision to upgrade the second cell production line to manufacture the 530 amp-hour cells instead of the 305 amp-hour cells. By taking the strategic step to invest in manufacturing the 530 cell, we will be among the first to bring this technology to the US market, which provides superior density resulting in slower degradation and longer battery life, thus providing significant value to our customers. Furthermore, these enhancements double our US cell manufacturing capacity, which enables us to meet our entire near-term volume and expectations in the United States with qualified domestic content products.

Additionally, it secures our exclusivity for a potential third line to support our long-term growth objectives.

Julian Nebreda: Finally, I would like to discuss the impacts of any potential increase in tariffs on Chinese VAT. Today, imported VATs pay a duty of 7.5%, and this is set to increase to 25% in 2026. If the tariff is raised even further, or ahead of the current schedule, it could cause some short-term disruptions in the market while the market digests the new price. However, we have taken proactive measures to mitigate the potential impact on our US products that are planning to utilize foreign cells in 2025, which include bringing these foreign cells into the country sooner than planned. We have also secured contracts with cell manufacturers that provide a cost-sharing of tariff increases, thus further mitigating our risk. Our view is that in the long run, higher tariffs should benefit US-based storage providers, such as Fluence, given us a competitive edge over other players that lack domestic manufacturing capability.

I am confident that in a high tariff scenario, our domestic content strategy will be able to deliver significant value to our customers and shareholders. We remain steadfast in our ability to grow and thrive in this new political environment regardless of tariff policy. We have solidified our business model for potential policy shifts, and we believe we are best positioned to capture the growing demand for resilient, cost-effective energy storage solutions. This concludes my prepared remarks. I will now turn the call over to Ahmed.

Ahmed Pasha: Thank you, Julian, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will give you our fourth quarter and full-year 2024 financial results and our outlook for fiscal 2025. Overall, as Julian mentioned, we are pleased with our financial performance, which reflects significant improvement across all dimensions of our business. We achieved strong growth in both revenue and profitability while continuing to invest in maintaining our leadership position and delivering substantial value to our customers and investors. So let me begin by summarizing my thoughts on the fourth quarter. Turning to slide eleven, we generated our highest ever quarterly revenue of $1.2 billion, which was approximately 82% higher than the same quarter last year and a 154% improvement from Q3.

Furthermore, we generated $159 million of adjusted gross profit, representing a gross profit margin of approximately 13%. This was our fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit gross profit margin. The results for the fourth quarter reflect our laser focus on project execution, which has enabled us to achieve project milestones on time and on budget. After operating expenses, we generated a record $87 million of adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter.

Ahmed Pasha: Turning to slide twelve, now I would like to take a moment to discuss our full-year performance for fiscal 2024. We delivered approximately $2.7 billion of revenue, representing 22% growth from fiscal 2023. We continue to build on our strong presence in the Americas and also saw revenue accelerate in Europe and Asia. With growth across the world, Europe and Asia now represent 40% of our business versus 30% in the last two years. In terms of gross profit margin, we exceeded our goal by a percentage point, yielding an adjusted gross profit margin of 12.9%. These strong results helped us deliver $78 million in adjusted EBITDA, which is well in excess of our guidance range of $55 million to $65 million. This outperformance is largely driven by our strong execution that enabled us to come in under budget on select projects as we benefited from key initiatives that leverage our scale and improve structural cost.

In fact, as you can see on slide thirteen, over time, we have steadily increased our gross profit margin, which had been negative until 2022. This continued improvement demonstrates our focused approach to better drive quality, cost, and execution productivity across the value chain.

Ahmed Pasha: Turning to slide fourteen, I would like to highlight that in fiscal 2024, we generated positive free cash flow for the first time as a public company. More specifically, we delivered $72 million of free cash flow versus negative $115 million last year. This was largely driven by significantly improved profitability as we saw a $140 million positive swing in adjusted EBITDA versus last year. Given the capital-light nature of our business model, growth in free cash flow should track growth in EBITDA, excluding any changes in working capital. Free cash flow will be an important source of funding for the long-term growth of our business.

Ahmed Pasha: Turning to slide fifteen, we are initiating revenue guidance for fiscal 2025 with a midpoint of $4 billion. This is in line with our prior expectations and represents 50% growth from fiscal 2024. We feel confident about our ability to achieve this target, which is primarily driven by three factors. First, approximately two-thirds of our 2025 revenue is currently in our backlog, consistent with where we were at this point last year. Second, we are in advanced and exclusive negotiations on a number of projects totaling $1.5 billion in value. And third, we have an increasing number of opportunities illustrated by our growing pipeline of projects across the world, as Julian mentioned. For fiscal 2025, we expect an adjusted gross profit margin of between 10% and 15%.

As a result, we expect to deliver an adjusted EBITDA midpoint of $180 million. And for ARR, we continue to see traction in our platform and expect to end the fiscal year with $145 million of ARR. Additionally, from a timing perspective and consistent with last year, we expect fiscal 2025 revenue to be back-end loaded with approximately 20% of annual revenue in the first half and the remaining 80% in the second half of the fiscal year. Due to the relatively flat nature of our fixed cost versus our quarterly revenue profile, we expect adjusted EBITDA to be negative in the first half of the year, consistent with last year. Finally, looking ahead to fiscal 2026, we continue to expect strong growth as Julian discussed. Using our fiscal 2025 revenue guidance midpoint of $4 billion as a base, we expect our growth to be in line with the energy storage market as a whole or approximately 30% plus annually for fiscal 2026 and beyond.

Ahmed Pasha: Turning to slide sixteen with an update on our liquidity. As you can see, we finished the year with $963 million in total liquidity, roughly half of which is cash on hand, and the rest is availability in our credit facilities. Our liquidity reflects improving profitability and our new revolver we signed earlier this year, which further enhances our solid liquidity profile and financial flexibility.

Ahmed Pasha: Turning to slide seventeen, in terms of our 2025 liquidity outlook, we see the need for approximately $300 million of additional working capital to support the significant future growth that we are projecting. This is split roughly evenly between, first, working capital required to support substantial growth in revenue in 2025 and beyond, and second, working capital needed to invest in our domestic manufacturing capability to enable 100% of our US demand to qualify for domestic content. To fund this opportunity, we have several options available to us, including our existing cash, which will be augmented by future free cash flow, borrowing capacity under our revolver, and balance sheet capacity for either debt or debt-like securities, as we currently have no debt.

Overall, we believe that we have flexibility with respect to funding that will enable us to capitalize on the enormous opportunity in this business, cementing ourselves as a global leader in battery storage. As we consider these funding options and the timing, we will be guided by our commitment to maintain strong liquidity and optimal capital structure. In summary, we are pleased with our current year performance and entering fiscal 2025 with momentum. With backlog and development pipeline at record levels, we are well-positioned to deliver continued profitable top-line growth. With that, let me turn the call back to Julian for his closing remarks.

Julian Nebreda: Thank you, Ahmed. Turning to slide eighteen and in conclusion, I want to emphasize the key takeaway from this quarter’s results. First, our Q4 performance demonstrates our ability to deliver profitable growth. This was an important test for us as we generated 45% of our fiscal year revenue in the final quarter of the year. Second, US demand for energy storage is not going to be impacted by the changing political environment. We are seeing real load growth for the first time in decades, and renewables plus storage is one of the fastest and most economic ways to serve this load. Third, we have a clear competitive advantage as we have established a US supply chain that will enable us to meet US demand through domestic sources of production.

And fourth, our strategy of rapid innovation allows us to meet our growing customer needs with solutions that are resilient to a changing world, provide our customers with a secure route to value, and the profit returns our shareholders seek. With that, I would like to open up the call for questions.

Operator: Thank you. If you’d like to ask a question, please press star one one. Please press star one one again. Our first question comes from George Gianarikas with Canaccord Genuity. Your line is open.

Q&A Session

George Gianarikas: Good morning, Julian. How are you? Doing great. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. Maybe just to start off with your guidance for fiscal 2025 and your backlog coverage. Given all the changes in Washington and the back-end loaded nature of your revenue guidance, can you just discuss how cancelable or solid your backlog is just to give some sort of confidence that you can reach this 20/80 split going into next year? Thank you.

Julian Nebreda: Thank you, George. So as we said, we have roughly two-thirds of our revenue midpoint guidance in our backlog already. And we are roughly around $1.5 billion in contracts that we’re in late stages of negotiations, so we are selected by the customer for the contract. That roughly $1.5 billion, more than half will be revenue that will be covered in 2025. So we feel very confident of our midpoint guidance range. We have some wood to chop. There’s some more contracts that we need to sign, but we feel very good with where we are today. In terms of our backlog, as you know, we take a very, very strict view of our backlog situation. And we really look at, in order to have things considered into our backlog, they need to be things that are signed and that we believe we can, you know, that there is a real commitment from our customers to take those projects on time and deliver.

So they’re binding deals. So we feel very confident that we have seen very little to none, you know, as delay. As you know, we have talked last year, but we have not seen real cancellations of projects on the backlog once we signed it. Essentially, because we take a very, very strict view. As I always said, there are contracts we have signed that are still subject to certain conditions that are in pipeline. They’re not in backlog because they’re not at a stage where they can be considered at that point. So we feel very confident about the 66% coverage in our backlog. The contracts were in late stage of negotiation or will be selected that will represent around $1.5 billion of backlog or around $800 million of revenue for the year, for 2025.

And then, you know, a small portion we need to cover, we believe we will be able to cover from now to March of next year.

George Gianarikas: Thank you. Maybe as a follow-up, just to ask about your market share. Can you help us discern what’s happening in your bake-offs, particularly as it relates maybe to Tesla or Wärtsilä? How comfortable do you feel that you’re maintaining your market share levels and the deals that you’re winning or losing? Thank you.

Julian Nebreda: Good. Very, very good point. We, you know, we were in front of the meter outside of China. No? Which is a lot of some of our players do, you know, behind the meter and C&I and some of our competitors and some of our competitors do work in China. So we have to kind of build our own view of what the time we are. But with our view of time, we see our market share sustained. No. It moves up and down a little bit, but generally, sustaining over time. We have a very competitive offering and Tesla is clearly a very important competitor. Some of the Chinese have become very, very aggressive as of late. But, generally, we feel, you know, that we have a competitive offering that wins, and we’ve been able to keep our market share.

Having said that, we more and more and we try to highlight this in our presentation, ours in our prepared remarks. Innovation is the driver of value here. Being ahead of the market and, you know, what we have done in the US and some things we’re working on. To really keep the market being ahead of the market. That’s a way we’re gonna win at the end of the day. Having an innovative problem having a resilient supply chain, that can deliver value to our customers as we work. So it’s a competitive industry. As I tell my team all the time, I love competition. Long as I’m winning. So, you know, I love it. It’s great to be in a place that you’re required to think about what to do, how to do it better, and to find a route to win it. We’ve been very successful.

We are committed to keep being continuing this posture.

George Gianarikas: Thank you.

Julian Nebreda: Thank you, George.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs and Company. Your line is open.

Brian Lee: Hey, Julian. Good morning. How are you?

Julian Nebreda: Hello.

Brian Lee: Hey, Julian, good morning. I’m doing well. Thanks for taking the questions. I wanted to maybe follow-up on George’s question just on the revenue guidance. You have, you know, the parameters you’re providing are helpful. Right? This, you know, kind of two-thirds backlog coverage, the late-stage negotiations. But just I just want to kind of rewind a little bit if you think about this time last year, you know, you had a $3 billion revenue midpoint. Some stuff didn’t really play out the way you want it in the back half of the year. So you’re coming in a little young about 10% shy of what you thought the midpoint was gonna be for fiscal 2024. You’re using the same kind of parameters to set the midpoint, it seems like, for 2025.

So can you maybe just walk us through, you know, maybe, one, what happened in 2024 to make you miss the initial revenue midpoint that you’re expecting coming into the year? Why is that not gonna repeat in 2025? And are there any, you know, parameters in 2025 that look on a year-on-year basis better than 2024 where even with the same backlog coverage coming into the year, you feel even more confident about hitting the midpoint this year versus, you know, maybe not having been able to do so last year?

Julian Nebreda: Great. Good question. Thanks. So where are you know, we had similar coverage than we had the last two years. No? So in both in 2023 and 2024, it hasn’t changed. Roughly two-thirds by the at the beginning of the year. I think the difference this year is the fact that we have $1.5 billion of contracts in late stages of negotiation where we have been selected. Which gives us, you know, very, very clear line of sight to meeting our number. So that’s all I’ll tell you if I were to compare last year to this year. Last year so that’s the main difference, I think, from where we are, and we have clearly a route a very clear route to reaching our midpoint with projects and, you know, customers who are working on that where we have not been selected yet or where we have filled, you know, competing somehow, but that we believe we didn’t normally at normal hit rate, which should be able to get to our midpoint comfortably.

So that’s what I will say where we are today. You know? I think that way you can last year, as you know, what we had was a project that got delayed. Due to certain issues and, you know, yeah, it could happen again, but if you ask me where I am today, looking at the backlog, looking at the project that we have. We’re in late stages. Late stage and looking at the route to meet in the midpoint of Calvera.

Brian Lee: Okay. That’s helpful. And then maybe just quick follow-ups. The $1.5 billion in late stage, can you give us some sense of the mix breakdown? Is that, you know, mostly US? Is that all international? And then on the gross margin guidance, the 10% to 15%, I mean, you ended up doing a hundred basis points better than the 10% to 12% from last year. Why not a tighter range? What’s the better precision from last year versus this year where it’s a wider range? Thanks, guys.

Ahmed Pasha: I will let Ahmed answer that point. Sure. Right?

Ahmed Pasha: So I think the mix is roughly half of that is in the US. And half is in Asia. The mix of $1.5 billion. And the range, you said? And the range for in nine-dimensional, the range was white. Yeah. I think the range for the 10%, I think that if you look at our last year guidance, there was about 10% on the midpoint. Plus minus, and this year is pretty much the same. 10% plus minus from the midpoint.

Brian Lee: No. I was talking more about the last year, you had a 200 basis point range on gross margins. This year, you’re kind of sticking to the 10% to 15% wider range even like you did with the last year.

Ahmed Pasha: A fair point. And this year, we earned 13% and our midpoint, I think we are giving 10% to 15%, which is consistent with what we gave last time for 2025. And frankly, as we are working on it, I think we still have to sign more contracts that why we thought it makes sense to stick to what we gave the guidance for 2025 in the past. But as we move progress, in the subsequent quarters, we will update you where we stand. But hopefully, you know, we can improve it. But at this point, we thought it makes sense to just stick to 10% to 15%. But this is something that frankly is our key focus to continue to improve our performance as you have seen in the last several quarters. So that is something that is on the top of our priority list. To continue to improve, and that will help improve the bottom line.

Brian Lee: Okay. Makes sense, guys. Appreciate it. Thanks.

Julian Nebreda: Thank you, Brian.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Dylan Massano with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Dylan Massano: Hey. Good morning, everyone.

Julian Nebreda: Good morning, Dylan. How are you?

Dylan Massano: Doing well. So I just want to I guess, check-in on the confidence level of the $21 billion in the pipeline just given kind of the deflationary pricing environment that we’re in. Are you feeling good about kind of those assumptions that underlie the pipeline figure?

Julian Nebreda: Yeah. That pipeline is essentially, you know, constantly being adjusted for pricing changes. So I won’t tell you that 100% it is today, but generally 95% reflect, you know, current prices. So it reflects, you know, where we see prices today it’s reflected in the total value of the partner.

Dylan Massano: Got it. Thanks. And then on the upgrade to the 530 amp-hour cells, sounds like that’s a higher value product. So is it fair to say this would be accretive to the overall gross margins?

Julian Nebreda: Well, it’s difficult to tell you today whether how much gross margin we can capture out of it. I will say that it will be within the 10% to 15%. But if, you know, there’s the most recent technology in batteries and we have made the decision to bring the most state-of-the-art technology to the US. You know, I think that we one something that we wanna prove is that you can build these things in the US. You can manufacture this in the US with the same quality, with the same precision, with the same capability as any other market in the world. That kind of what we’re trying to do. We have the people, we have the energy, we have capabilities, the infrastructure. It can be done here as good as you can do it anywhere else. So that’s essentially the point of bringing that technology. Whether it brings gross margin, you know, we’ll see over time today. I will say it’s between the 10% to 15%.

Dylan Massano: Great. That’s it for me. Thank you.

Julian Nebreda: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Amit Thakkar with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Ameet Thakkar: Hi. Good afternoon. Good morning. Thank you. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to kind of rewind back to, I guess, love kind of the update y’all gave, the 2025 last quarter, I think you’d kind of talked about a 35% to 40% revenue growth rate off of the original $3 billion kind of midpoint. Like, the low end of the guidance range for revenue is $3.6 billion is a little bit light of that or what that would have implied. I know you mentioned you are not really much in the way of project cancellations. I was just gonna kind of speak to kind of, like, are you having some projects that kind of slipped, you know, from last quarter to this quarter’s update, into fiscal year 2026 or any color around that? Thank you.

Ahmed Pasha: I don’t think I mean, this is Ahmed. I don’t think there’s anything you need to read too much into. I think if last quarter we if you recall, we our midpoint was $2.75 billion and but we said that we continue to expect growth from the $3 billion midpoint 35% to 40%, and we are landing it pretty much at the same place with the guidance we gave you. And frankly, I mean, as we discussed, you know, I mean, based on what we have signed and what we have exclusive deals that we are working on, we feel pretty good that we can achieve that threshold. So our range is now $3.6 billion to $4.4 billion. And I think midpoint with $4 billion, I think is pretty much at the same place that we discussed last time. So feel pretty good. Obviously, we as Julian mentioned, we have some wood to chop, but at the same time, I think the pipeline and exclusivity we have on the deals we feel pretty good that we can achieve that threshold.

Ameet Thakkar: Okay. And just one quick follow-up. You’ve mentioned kind of any, like, a $300 million kind of working capital investment for the year. You’re gonna be EBITDA positive by deciding to lease this year. Any view on what we should kind of assume for kind of a cash conversion off of your adjusted EBITDA? And is that $300 million working capital investment, is that kind of your peak need, or is that kind of the average investment over the year?

Ahmed Pasha: That is something that we need for this year. I think upfront, as I discussed, you know, I mean, to secure us our US domestic content strategy, I think, to implement on that. Plus the working capital needs for revenues growing roughly 50%. So cash conversion question, yes. I think cash is we are expecting $180 million. I think our free cash flow will be positive before working capital needs, because we have as we discussed, you know, revenue is back-end loaded. So I think net net cash flow will be positive before working capital. But the cash will be coming in mostly at the back end.

Ameet Thakkar: Thank you.

Ahmed Pasha: Thank you, Amit.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Christine Cho with Barclays. Your line is open.

Christine Cho: Good morning, Julian. How are you?

Julian Nebreda: Good morning. Good. How are you?

Christine Cho: Doing great. So I just have one question. You mentioned bringing in foreign sales sooner into the US. I’m sorry if I missed this, but is this included in your $300 million working capital need? And then if you could also give us maybe sort of idea or a ballpark percentage of how many of your US conversations are actually interested in domestic sales? Have you noticed any changes since the election?

Julian Nebreda: Yeah. I mean, yes. The $300 million includes the acceleration of some, you know, importing some batteries ahead of it. We see very, very strong demand for the domestic content offer. Very, very strong demand. You know, we see that I will say that maybe auto selection, but the people that we’re working with, the customers we’re working are looking for this and see our offering against other peers who are offering their what they offer as domestic content, and they see our offering as providing more security and, you know, and more optionality in terms of doing it. So very, very strong demand. It hasn’t really changed since the election, to tell you it’s real. Significantly, I would say, or at least not something that you know, these are long these are big projects that take time.

I think we have seen either a major, major movement since the election. Before the elections, we did see it was clear that Trump was gonna win people you know, so a little bit more traffic. But after the elections, I don’t think anything has significantly changed.

Christine Cho: Great. Thank you.

Julian Nebreda: Yep. Thank you, Christine.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from John Windham with UBS. Your line is open.

John Windham: Hey. Good morning, Julian.

Julian Nebreda: Hey.

John Windham: Hey. Good morning, Julian. Good morning. I guess for I’m doing good. Hey.

Ahmed Pasha: I could

John Windham: before I get to the question, I’ll say congratulations. It’s been a little bit over two years, and I think slide thirteen really shows the story of what you’ve been able to deal with Fluence with improving gross margins consistently over time. So congratulations for that.

Julian Nebreda: Thank you very much, man.

John Windham: Yeah. No. No problem. It’s been it’s been a fun story to follow. My question is, on the existing contracts that you have, how would if tariffs were applied, who bears the risk of that? Is it the customer or the battery manufacturer you, does it vary on contract? Maybe just a little bit of color on that would be very helpful. Thanks.

Julian Nebreda: Yeah. I’ll tell you. So it varies. You know, there are some where we have some deals with suppliers where we share some of the risk. We have some deals with customers. Which are some of the risks. When you looked at our current backlog, roughly 10% of the total backlog is subject to tariff or Chinese tariff, you know, that where we will have to manage it, the Chinese tariffs. Or the US backlog of the, you know, of our total backlog of $4.5 billion, which US, you know, $1.6 billion, you know, 10%, you know, 10% of that is subject to we’re taking the risk on tariff. And just you didn’t ask, but just to be clear, that this water was announced yesterday or what? The tweet that president Trump said yes or the 10%, that that will be completely immaterial. In our case. We will manage it. If that were to happen.

Ahmed Pasha: In some cases, we have arrangements with our counterparties to pass through increasing tariffs. So I think net net, it’s not material. What we saw yesterday. I think given that only $150 million or so of our backlog has that exposure. And with 10%, I think we have flexibility. To pass on to our customers. So we don’t think this is unmanageable. Yeah. Three. And then we can accelerate the batteries. I think that, in fact, reduces it further. So feel pretty good that we can manage it.

John Windham: Perfect. Thank you.

Julian Nebreda: Thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from Andrew Crocco with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Andrew Crocco: Yeah. I’m doing good morning.

Julian Nebreda: Hey, Andrew. Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. I just wanted to come back to the seasonality point for 2025. I think that the last few years, it’s been roughly a 40/60 split, first half, second half. I just want you know, any more information you can provide on what’s driving the shift to the second half of the year in 2025 more specifically? Is it project related? Is it yeah. Any more any additional color you can give there? Just any confidence around that second half number just given how significant it is.

Julian Nebreda: I will tell you this. I mean, there’s no sense structural in the market. That drives. No. So we have looked in detail what’s driving it in our case. If you looked at some of our competitors, those are peaks. Are in some other quarters all around to be sincere, but generally, so there’s nothing structural in the market. So it’s probably a most likely a function of our internal incentives to our sales teams and our implementation teams. And we’re putting corrections to address this. However, the corrections will take some time to take effect. So we do believe that that know, it’s something that hopefully we will be you will we will be able to see improvements over time. As there are not real restrictions in the market that that’ll tell you why the not it’s not the way where the company needs to run.

So that will be my view. We feel confident that we can do it within this quarter. We will be able to do it next year. We don’t see any problems in that. Our supply chains work very well. Our teams are, you know, very, very good at this, but it’s clearly not necessarily a good state. So we want to address it and we’re working on it.

Andrew Crocco: Okay. Understood. That’s helpful. And then maybe just on the bookings point, obviously, very strong fourth quarter for you guys. Can you just send me a comment around what you’re seeing from customers since the election in terms of their bookings activity or just the sentiment from customers in terms of how eager they are to sign incremental orders with you guys, or they kind of in wait and see mode until the new administration finishes their transition time. Just kind of curious at the state of the customer post-election.

Julian Nebreda: Yeah. I mean, as you know, we are roughly half international, so that hasn’t really been affected by the US, you know, uncertainty. In the US, I will tell you today, I mean, we’re, you know, a month or not even a month from the elections. That it hasn’t really been I also think it has been a major change. Yeah. Questions, that you get from time to time from customers or, you know, how would you manage this do you manage that? And what are we doing? And, you know, we can answer them. So we see our projects progressing in the US progressing normal.

Andrew Crocco: Great. Thank you. I’ll take the rest of the line.

Julian Nebreda: Great. Thanks. Thanks, Andrew.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Mark Strouse with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Julian Nebreda: Hey. Good morning, Mark.

Mark Strouse: Hey, Julian. It’s Drew on for Mark. Thank you very much for taking the questions. First one, just on just on what you’re seeing for 2026 the 30% target. I mean, is that based off of, you know, conversations you’re having with customers or is that more of just, you know, third-party market outlooks? And then in that 30%, you know, how much do you think there’s a chance where, you know, you start really taking some share in the US given your, you know, first to market here with the US sales?

Julian Nebreda: Our, you know, view of 2026 is based out of our pipeline. So we have a very strong pipeline. We see still projects coming in. This quarter even though our pipeline grew only by, you know, $500 million in reality, $500 million on top of converting $1.2 billion and it’s tough on top of adjusting the pipeline for pricing. So we feel very, very confident that we can meet the, you know, 30% growth that we were seeing it already in our pipeline. So that’s how we come up with our guidance for 2026 today.

Mark Strouse: Okay. And then just on a different topic here, I mean, really, really big number in the digital orders or hitting backlog and then also in the pipeline as well. Can you just talk about some of the traction you’re seeing in the digital business right now? Maybe what changed quarter over quarter?

Julian Nebreda: Those $100 million includes both digital and services. And, you know, and these does roughly, you know, 75% is services, 25% is digital just to give you a sense of where we are. Both are doing very, very well. Our digital business, we have we continue what we announced, you know, a couple of years back. Re four no. Re re we we are relaunching Mosaic with a new system that allows us to enter into new markets much faster. So we are we enter in ERCOT. We now have a MISO project, and we now going into Japan. We’re probably, you know. So that’s great. It’s working very well. And with our NISPERA product, what we have done is we’ll continue investing in it. But we have created a lot of value a lot of value in integrated into our service organization.

So we’re not only offering to our customers, but we are also creating value to our service organization. So at the end of the day, we see this business as a conjunction. And finally, we are making good progress with very, very good customers. We signed a few deals with Mazda. We are, you know, moving forward with them, and we’ve been very happy, you know, once you get you these customers see the value that we can bring to the table, they we see that movement really move forward. So very happy with it. Know, today, it’s still not material to our number or not the materiality we want from this business. But we are very, very confident that it will be material very soon and that the strategy we’re putting together is going on the right direction.

Mark Strouse: Great. Thanks again, Julian.

Julian Nebreda: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Kashy Harrison with Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

Kashy Harrison: Hey, Kashy. Hey. How’s it going? Good morning, and thank you for taking the questions, actually. So, Julian, I want to go back to the late-stage negotiations $1.5 billion with $800 million that would ship if net 2025. Can you give us what those equivalent numbers those figures would have been entering the prior year or are you saying that there just wasn’t a significant amount in late-stage negotiations at this time last year?

Julian Nebreda: I don’t think that you know, last good question. Last year, we did not have this, you know, the amount the contracts that were late stages were significantly smaller than what we have this year. So we are this is particularly, I think if you look at, you know, as I mentioned, our behalf of that is in New Hampshire. Yeah. I don’t think we have that at all. Yes. That’s at that time. At that time. So that’s significant. This is a much better from that point of view, we’re in a much better position than we were last year.

Kashy Harrison: Got it. I appreciate the additional color there. And then just my final question is on the gross margin range of 10% to 15%. Can you just help us think through some factors that would push you towards the high end of guidance or the lower end of guidance?

Julian Nebreda: It’s you know, our gross margin is a combination of execution put, you know, deliverance things and commissioning and putting into reaching substantial completion and final completion at a lower cost. That’s what drives. You know, and that’s what what, you know, what we’ve been driving it this year. And I think our ability to get to the higher side of our range will depend very much on that. What I think is a challenge for 2025, but I think it’s important for you to understand, we have new products that are coming on. We’re GSP 2000, the GSP 5000. And, you know, we and so the combination of revenue for next year is gonna be a little bit different. Different, so we decided to go with a conservative a more conservative view on where we where we’re gonna end.

But, you know, we are committed to doing this, and we have done a great I think our team has done a great job at testing our new products in our labs and putting them through all the things that could happen. So we believe we will be able to do very, very well, but the reality is that there will be new products coming out in 2025 that, you know, will make it slightly more challenging.

Kashy Harrison: Got it. Thank you. Appreciate it.

Julian Nebreda: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris Dendrenos with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Chris Dendrenos: Yeah. Good morning. Thank you.

Julian Nebreda: Hey, Chris. Good morning.

Chris Dendrenos: Morning. I wanted to kind of ask about pricing, and you kind of highlighted some of the price trends and the change in lithium pricing has brought down the average selling prices. I guess with where you sit today and, you know, thinking about some of the competitors out there, the, you know, the CATLs and the LGs that are going direct to the consumer. I guess how much price competition are you seeing in terms of, you know, prices continue to move lower? Obviously, you guys highlighted a solid backlog here, so you’re able to compete. But just trying to get a sense of where price sits today and that competitive environment is kind of shaping up for 2025.

Julian Nebreda: Good. Very good question. I mean, we do see a very competitive market. As I said, the Chinese have been, you know, more active recently, you mentioned too. What is the big change? And I think that puts us in a very competitive as the price of the CapEx part has come down, the relative value on the other parts. The EPC part. The commissioning, the logistics, the ability to provide reliability to meet the needs of customers faster has become more relevant. And if you’re right, the Chinese might have some competitive advantage in some the CapEx option, you know, maybe. We meet it today. But, you know, they clearly don’t have it on the other one. So that’s how we win. We offer our customers a total cost of ownership.

That’s better than what they can get from any of these people. You know? And that’s how we do it, and that will continue to work to deliver that. And that’s how that’s what’s gonna drive the success in this market. That’s why I said that if technology, is innovation. It is looking at and really understanding the customer and helping them resolve their needs in a way that’s more efficient than what, you know, the other one thing, though, the Chinese clearly have an advantage of some of the because they’re more vertically integrated, and they can, you know, build these things in China probably cheaper but we they do not have an advantage in the other parts of the value chain. We feel very, very, very, very confident that, you know, we’re not only willing today that we will continue to win no matter how aggressive.

Where the Chinese players play.

Chris Dendrenos: Got it. And then I guess maybe following up on the comments around playing the value chain. I mean, do you see an opportunity to maybe increase the role you play in that value chain, whether it’s taking on, you know, maybe more of the EPC role or something like that in the future? Are you kind of comfortable with where you all sit today? Thanks.

Julian Nebreda: We do offer EPC to some of our customers with partners. And, you know, we’ll continue doing. I don’t see a reason why to expand it or not expand it. You know, when a customer needs it and we can offer them a good offer, we do it. If not, they find another solution. That won’t change anything.

Chris Dendrenos: Thank you.

Julian Nebreda: Great. Thank you.

Operator: One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Julian Dumoulin-Smith with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Julian Nebreda: Julian, good morning.

Hannah: Hey. This is Hannah. Good morning. On for Julian. Clearly not Julian. I know. I sound a little bit different. No. Julian’s out in Europe marketing.

Julian Nebreda: Good morning. Taking the question.

Hannah: Good morning, and congrats on the quarter. So a similar question that others asked before, but what would get you to the high end of the revenue guide versus the low end you know, slightly lower as we saw in full year 2024. So does the low end assume some scenario mix of project delays and maybe risk to the IRA and domestic content? And I know the focus is on the midpoint, but I’m just trying to understand what scenarios are baked into that $600 million range in guidance.

Julian Nebreda: Great. Good point. Good question. The driver of our ability to meet the higher range or, you know, will be essentially capturing backlog. Entering, you know, that’s what will drive it. You know, if we can contract the backlog, bring the orders same, we will be on the upper side of the range and hopefully even better. If we don’t, we’ll be, you know, closer to a midpoint. So that’s what I would say will be the big driver, and that’s where we’re working on and we are dedicating all our things are concentrated on that because that will define say, from here, to March, generally, when this can happen, but so we have some time to do it, but that’s our concentration.

Hannah: And just as a quick follow-up there. Thank you. So is that am I reading this incorrectly then that there is no real adjustment to any potential delays?

Julian Nebreda: No. I you know, when we enter into these deals, there might be delays of, you know, weeks or, you know, small delays. But, generally, once we have signed the backlog, they put in a significant amount. The sites are ready. We you know, it’s the delays are minor, you know, if there are some, you know, yeah. Transforming got led to a site, and it takes us a little longer to do hot commission. It seems all that sort that that happened in project, but nothing that’s you know that I will say will be meaningful will affect our ability to deliver our commitments substantially. Or materially. I think our objective convert pipeline into backlog, into order from now March of next year. That’s what we need to.

Hannah: Okay. Thank you.

Julian Nebreda: Great. Thanks.

Operator: Thank you. We have time for one final question. And that question comes from Ben Kallo with Baird. Your line is open.

Ben Kallo: Hey. Good morning. Thanks for fitting me in.

Julian Nebreda: Good morning, Ben.

Ben Kallo: Hi. So just two lots of questions been asked, but just on the order pattern, the question around the election, could you just talk about how much, you know, safe harboring is entering into discussions at this point? And then my second question is, you know, the talk around Chinese competition. I think there’s a worry there that there would be, you know, Chinese companies coming and saying, you know, shop the United States. You know, have you seen any of that, or do you think that gets stopped with the election? So thank you for those.

Julian Nebreda: Yeah. You know, the Chinese competition is that global phenomenon. I’ll answer it, and then I will give it up to Ahmed for the first question. It’s a global phenomenon. We see it globally. I say that it’s less intense than in the US than outside of the US. It’s less intense in the US. Hey. If they come to the US and put a factory here, you know, they should come allowed to compete and maybe they’ll do it. Yeah. I understood that to your question. We believe that we compete with them, you know, irrespective of trade policy. You know, we will compete with any markets with are completely free. Like Chile. Like Australia, like the UK. So, you know, if they were to come here and put a factory here in the US and get the advantage of some of the and, you know, I welcome them to do it, by the way.

Because I think bringing technology and jobs in the US is something that we should entice. The level of competition will be no different from the level of competition we see today in markets where we are open and we win projects for the round. The first question, I will you know?

Ahmed Pasha: Yeah. Your first question, I think, was on the customer behavior, and I think what we have seen since the election, I think we have not frankly seen any material change. And in terms of the impact, I think Julian already talked about, you know, I mean, our backlog US backlog, where we have roughly $1.6 billion of US backlog. There’s very little impact of the tariff, which so net net, I don’t think there’s any material impact with what we have seen yesterday.

Ben Kallo: Okay. Thank you, sir.

Operator: Thank you. I’d like to turn the call back over to Lex May for any closing remarks.

Lexington May: Thank you for participating on today’s call. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me. We look forward to speaking with you again when we report our first quarter results. Have a good day.

Operator: Thank you for your participation. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.