Bob Hau: And Bryan, I’d add, obviously, it’s, what, February 7th. January came in well, good. There is certainly some benefit of comparisons January last year. We were actually coming back out of COVID in a couple of spots. And so it’s a little bit easier that will moderate a bit as we go through February and March, but things seem to be generally holding. And if you listen to the talking heads on TV or read Wall Street Journal or FT or whatever, there’s more folks now talking about maybe not a recession. We think the baseline is a slowing of the GDP, and that’s obviously, US — 84% of our revenue is US based. Obviously, Europe, particularly in the UK and Germany are seeing a tougher economic environment. Who knows what happens with China.
And for us, China directly isn’t an issue, but the implications, particularly in APAC. So we think it’s appropriate prudence to have that baked in. And it’s tough to know whether we’ll have a mild recession let alone when. But right now, things are holding.
Operator: Thank you. And for our final question comes from Dave Togut from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Dave Togut: Thank you. Good morning. With fourth quarter organic revenue growth of 12%, well above your midterm guide and annual guide for next year of 7% to 9%, how should we think through the cadence of organic revenue growth and margin expansion, thinking through the higher supply chain and wage inflation you had in the first two to three quarters of last year, combined with any callouts on periodic revenue comparisons.
Bob Hau: Yes, Dave, in port element, I think that the easiest way to think about this. So maybe the most straightforward way to think about that is to look at some of the ebbs and flows that we had in 2022. Obviously, fourth quarter margin came in quite strong. Inflation eased as we ended the second half of the year. So it’s a different comparison point. Margins will expand better in the first half, first 90 — excuse me, first nine months of 2023 than they did in 2022 because of that timing. Certainly, from a periodic revenue standpoint or a non-recurring revenue standpoint, Q3 of 2023 will be against a much easier compare, which was 1% in Q3 of 2022 that jumped to 8%. So you’ll see variations like that. I don’t necessarily see anything in 2023s results hat’s going to drive great variation.
So it’s more against the comparisons. Of course, other than broad economy and that manageable timing of when a recession might actually hit. But given that, it is expected to be mild. You’re not going to see shocks like we did in 2020 in second quarter when the world just shut down, knock on wood.
Operator: And that was our final question.
Frank Bisignano: Well, I’d like to thank everybody for your attention today. Please feel free to reach out to our Investor Relations team with any questions, and have a great day, and thank you for your time.
Operator: Thank you all for participating in the Fiserv fourth quarter 2020 earnings conference call. That concludes the call for today. Please disconnect at this time, and have a great rest of your day.
