Fathom Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:FTHM) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Marco Fregenal: Yes. No. Churn for the quarter was 1.9%, so a little higher, but the significant increase came from agents that did one and one transactions, we saw an increase of 73% of agents that from Q3 of this year compared to Q2 of this year, the agents that closed zero to one transactions prior when leaving. So the increase in churn from typically 1.3%, 1.4% to about 1.9%, 74% of that really came in that increase in the one to one transactions. And if we go to zero to three transactions, it’s probably close to 85% increase. So the message is, yes, we lost a few more agents, but the agents that we lost were typically lower producing agents.

Joshua Harley: Which, by the way, it’s right in line with what was happening in the industry, right? Industry year-over-year saw a 1.6% decrease in agent population from end of September to end of September 2023. And so you can imagine that, obviously, we’re not immune to that. So we saw — we probably saw that same 1.6% decrease while at the same time, even grew by 13%. I think that number could have been a little higher if we didn’t have that pressure.

Raj Sharma: Right. And then — Thank you. And then I know that you’re not giving guidance and it’s a volatile period to give guidance, and it’s tough to tell. But is there any sort of sense — and I know you also closed these walkovers which you said happened in Q4. But any sense on what we should assume as ongoing agent growth in this environment? Is it okay to assume and think that it would be mid-teens for the next foreseeable few quarters?

Joshua Harley: I think it’s safe that we continue — I mean we look at last quarter, 14%, this quarter, 13%. I think it’s safe to assume that we’re going to — we can continue to maintain at least that. Obviously, our goal is to push beyond that. I mean I’ve been working harder and harder with the team to see if I can help move those numbers higher through these walkovers. But we feel very confident we can at least maintain what we’ve been sharing, but our goal, ultimately, the goal is to increase that dramatically. We’re not satisfied with 13% growth by any means. I know a lot of our friends would be very happy with it, but we’re not.

Marco Fregenal: We also try to be as transparent as possible, and that’s why we shared the number that our onboarding starts have increased by 25%. And so that hopefully also give you some indication. That doesn’t mean they joined yet, I mean, they’re starting the onboarding process. But we’re — and I think we’re trying to share — even though we’re not giving guidance, we’re trying to share as much as we can in order to help you continue to model the business. And that’s why we shared that 25% increase in onboarding starts.

Raj Sharma: And this is for the month of October or…

Marco Fregenal: That’s Q3 compared to Q2.

Raj Sharma: Got it. Sequentially. And that’s the agent growth. And is transactions, the number of transactions done? Is that purely a function of the market or do you try to solve for that in the walkovers you accept in the agency you acquire? Or as your referral rates go up, is it safe to assume that you’re also — the agents are more productive where you have a bigger share, your transactions would go up? Any sort of help in that would be good?

Marco Fregenal: So typically, Q4, as you know, Q4 is a lower quarter, right? And so you have the seasonality of the industry, which is there is a reduction in Q4. And roughly, it’s 20% or so Q4 — Q3 to Q4. Having said that, one of the things that makes this year kind of interesting is that we — throughout the year, seasonality did not play as much factor this year because of interest rates. So I think what you can look at the typical seasonality of the industry, you can discount some of that as well. And for us, we are adding more agents. If you look at the net number of agents quarter-over-quarter for this whole year, the number kept increasing, right? And so we’ll see greater transactions coming in from these other agents who are joining us, right?

So — but there definitely will be a reduction in transactions from Q4 — from Q3 to Q4, but we hope that it will be in par or perhaps even flat to last year. And that’s kind of the indication that we have right now. But I think it’s very important to note that this market is very fluid, right? Anything can happen in this market and there are a lot of other factors that are happening in the world right now that can affect the market as well, right? And so that’s why it’s very difficult to give guidance because it’s not so much that we’re running the business. We have visibility into our business. There are so many other factors going on besides even interest rate, right? What’s happening in the world overall that we just felt more prudent not to give guidance.

Raj Sharma: Right. Right. Fair enough. Thank you again for answering my questions. I will take this offline. Thank you.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Josh Harley for closing remarks.

Joshua Harley: Thank you for joining our call today and for your interest in Fathom. For those of you who are Fathom shareholders, thank you for your trust. We’ll continue to work hard and look forward to sharing future updates with you. So with that, have a wonderful week.

Operator: The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.

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