Tim Baxter: Absolutely, Jay. So, the outlook that we provided for 2022 clearly indicates that we’re seeing the same behavior in the fourth quarter from the consumers that we saw in the third quarter. And so that is slightly different than our expectation. Coming into the fall season, our previous outlook we did expect to see improvement in the fourth quarter based on Omicron and the impact of that last year and all sorts of other factors. The macroeconomic environment and the consumer sentiment that I described earlier, spending less on discretionary categories like apparel, and looking for deep-deep discounts that still seems to be in play in the quarter. And I would say the discount side of that is even more in play in the fourth quarter as it is typically a more promotional quarter anyway.
Thinking, you know going forward, we have not shared an outlook for 2023, yet we will do that when we share our fourth quarter results, but we are approaching 2023 with conservatism, particularly in how we’re buying merchandise. And we have a great go to market process that as the supply chain challenges and bottlenecks have, sort of evened out, we’re going to be able to get back into chase mode, which is something that works very, very well for us. So, we are testing things right now in the southern part of the country that will influence product we chase into for the first quarter and the second quarter. So, we’re going to approach it with conservativism and we have the mechanisms and the ability to chase into trends as we see consumer behavior rebounding.
Jay Sole: Got it. And so, maybe just a follow-up on that. I mean, is your comparable today to what it was pre-pandemic? I mean, can you just talk about how much lead times have shrunk from like, sort of like the worst of the supply chain issues like the last couple of years versus where they are right now?
Tim Baxter: I’m going to let Matt Moellering, our COO take that one Jay.
Matt Moellering: Yes, Jay. So, what I would say is they are getting better. They’re not to pre-pandemic levels yet, but they’re getting closer. There is a lot of capacity available out in the €“ out of the factories right now, which helps out a lot. We’re still and the logistics is getting better, supply chain, timing is getting better. So €“ but it’s not back to pre-pandemic levels. So, we’re still being a little cautious about that to make sure we get the product in on time, but everything is definitely improving. And as it’s improving, we are increasing our ability to chase into product, which is obviously really important for a fashion business.
Jay Sole: And Matt, do you have visibility into when it really gets better? Is it sort of depending on China and lockdowns ending or what does getting back to really pre-pandemic levels of lead times really depend on?
Matt Moellering: I think once we get into the first half of next year, we’re going to be in much better shape. We’ve already started to shorten our lead times based on certain getting better. As it relates to China for us specifically, we had low double-digit exposure to China this past year. We’re down to single-digit exposure in product next year. So, we feel good about our positioning and China will have limited impact on us specifically. There obviously could be a knock-on effect as people move out of China into other geographies if necessary, but we feel good about where we’re positioned right now.
