Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ:XGN) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Kyle Mikson: So I guess, guys, could you maybe just talks about some of the reasons why you didn’t want to provide full year guidance, like I understand that visibility is not great, given the reimbursement sub that you keep talking about. But some of the levers that you’re just describing, I mean, it sounds like you have momentum and everything, just maybe what could be a reasonable reasonably think about this going forward. And I just want to point out the strategy you’re doing like the $47 million for the year, that’s like basically flat to 2022 with like quarterly revenue being kind of going up sequentially moderately each quarter. Is something like that a good way to think about the year? Or is it too early to kind of comment?

John Aballi: Sure. Thanks again for joining, Kyle. I appreciate the question. From my perspective, we’re making quite a few changes to the organization, obviously, right? We’ve communicated. We’ve changed the overall strategy focused on AVISE CTD. This is a shift from the prior own the hilltop strategy. We’re pairing down parts of the existing portfolio. We’ve resized the sales force. We’re revamping our entire billing policy and the operations associated with that aspect of our business. We’re taking a look at our pipeline. And originally, I think the Company had communicated launching some of those pipeline products this year, and I’ve been very clear that we won’t be launching products until we have at least Medicare coverage, given the patient population we serve.

So I think with a lot of these changes, providing full year guidance is tough because the impact is can be difficult to predict. And I don’t have clarity, to be honest with you, is on the exact timing of some of these impacts. I think you saw that a little bit in Q4 where we had provided the guidance at the — in the middle of the quarter, and we expected some volume impact to start the year, and yet we are continuing the momentum we had in Q4. So, we continue to execute well, but there will be some of these changes, which are designed to improve ASP longer term. Take effect in a specific quarter and what have you. And I think just the lack of clarity that we have there really precludes us or prevents us from providing longer-term guidance.

But we’ve committed to communicating the changes as we go about executing on them. And then when we do have that clarity, we’ll be providing that guidance. So, I think that’s — that’s really the way that we’re looking at it internally, and we want to have a high degree of certainty when we do provide that information to everyone. Did that answer your question? I think there was a second part. I may have not touched on in great depth.

Kyle Mikson: I mean that was great, John. I mean the second one component of that was like the actual numbers, but I think it’s — on one that we don’t have to go there. I think I understand what you’re kind of getting at so we can move on, but I appreciate it though. Maybe just thinking about the metrics that kind of drive results here going forward. So volume test fund has been pretty solid as well as the providers. I know you’re not going to be providing that going forward. Test provider has been an interesting metric. I think that’s kind of moved around a bit. How should we think about that going forward? And then separately, just a question on ASP, look, obviously, it sounded very important going forward as like a measuring stick for the Company. Is there like a range for the year, maybe like a lower bound that you think is appropriate going forward?

John Aballi: Certainly. Thanks for the chance to answer this a little more completely. So from a metric standpoint, if you’re looking at commercial efficacy, if you will, the way that we’ve laid this out is you’ve got ASP, I think that’s a very key component to evaluating how the Company is performing. You’ve got — and specifically over time, where as I communicated, we’re looking at prior 12-month periods. You’ve got your physician base and you’ve also got overall volume. And we will provide the number of ordering positions on an annual basis. I just — there’s somewhat of a competitive disadvantage in providing that metric, which is why we switched to maybe more of an annual update there. But that allows you to derive orders per physician.

And so obviously, when you’re working to grow your business, you can either charge a higher price, expand the number of customers or sell more to the existing customers you have. And I think you’re able to take a look at trends in all three of those areas with the metrics we outlaid, which is why we’ve moved to this bucket of analytics, if you will. So from a lower bound ASP perspective, our strategy is focused on improving ASP over time from here on out. So whether we see some future decrease, I can’t predict. We had — in Q2 and Q3 combined, we had $4.9 million in commercial write-downs because we were subjected to a greater number of medical policy reviews, that didn’t materialize in Q4. So that was some of the upside we saw there. But whether that happens here in 2023, we’ll communicate, but difficult to predict.

So when there’ll be a lower bound there at some point, I kind of hope were there, if you will, but it’s not necessarily that we are. I think improvements over time are what we’re looking for as an organization. That the ASP continues to grow over time in a consistent fashion, and I think there’ll be periods that it grows faster than others, and that’s just a result of some of the efforts culminating or overlapping at a given time. But hopefully, that gives you some view as to how we’re looking at it internally and really in all of those areas, physician-based, the number of customers we have, along with the penetration within those customers, I think similar time lines or time frames are applicable to ASP as to each of those, and you want sustained success, right?

So that’s what we’re working to deliver.

Kyle Mikson: Okay. That was great. And just one more before I hop off. I just want to ask about payer coverage, I guess, something important for the Company’s history has been the obtaining a number of coverage from payers, whether it be larger payers or kind of like smaller regional payers. I mean, is that isn’t really mentioned much during the prepared remarks, but is that something that will help performance going forward in your view? Or is it more of these other metrics and levers that we’re talking about throughout the call here? I’m just curious what you think about in terms of payers and winning a large one maybe in the near term, something like that.

John Aballi: Certainly. And I think it’s actually at the heart of our strategy, to be honest with you. So, apologies if it was not fully transparent in the remarks. But certainly at the heart of our strategy since the Company switched over to a PLA code, higher level of scrutiny has been applied from commercial payers regarding whether this — whether AVISE CTD is medically appropriate, we believe it is. We believe we have the data to support it, actually, a very strong data package and are just working from an awareness standpoint to bring that to the payers’ perspective. Again, the new PLA code went to effect last April. And so this is a fairly new effort for the Company. Previously, I know there’s been comments around in-network contracting.

And I think that the way that I view it as medical policy, positive medical policy with individual payers will certainly help, and that’s our primary aim. We’ve adjusted the incentive structures for our managed markets team and heavily focused on that as well as that’s what some of the efforts in our revenue cycle process improvements are focused on is bringing that level of awareness and really working on the appeals process to pursue positive policy, either on a per claim basis or more broadly, for the test. So very important there. Obviously, we had to have Medicare coverage as we’ve updated in the last earnings call. So we have a good portion of it, but we have quite a bit of work to do on the commercial payer side, I think it’s always tough to predict when you’re going to have a specific payer never mind a large national payer fall online.

But we’re actively engaged with all. And I think we have a good strategy in place to do so. Our results will obviously be very important here.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from Dan Brennan with Cowen. Please proceed with your question.

Dan Brennan: Maybe to follow up on Kyle’s last question. I don’t know what you guys have disclosed in the past. But just in terms of coverage and contracting, have you guys disclosed a number of lives on the commercial side that you have under coverage? And anything about like how pricing changes when you go coverage to contract?