Estee Lauder Companies Inc (NYSE:EL) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

So this volatility that we’re speaking about actually started at the end of our fiscal 2022 in the fourth quarter. And we’re coming up on the anniversary of that. So the numbers look particularly large from a from a growth standpoint because we are anniversarying some lockdowns in China and in travel retail in Hainan in particular, which was the start of some of the problems that we have anticipated on this call today. I think we are anticipating for fiscal ’24, we’re not giving fiscal ’24 guidance right now. But given that in the fourth quarter, all markets are anticipated to be open and remain open and traveling will gradually resume and again, uncertain about the pace of that resumption, but we’ve certainly seen encouraging signs in many of our markets.

that fiscal ’24 will be a strong year for us. So I wouldn’t take the the Q4 implied growth and apply it to fiscal ’24. Peter, if that’s what you’re getting at. But certainly, we expect that we — many of — there will still be volatility in fiscal ’24, but the volatility related to the pandemic and some of the things that we’ve experienced this year should be much moderate than certainly what we’ve experienced this year. And if you have any predictions on currency, certainly do let me know.

Operator: The next question is from Michael Binetti of Credit Suisse.

Michael Binetti: Tracey, maybe I could just dovetail on that a little bit. you told us a few quarters back that 20% margin was a North Star. As you think out to next year and many of the moving parts of your business finally start to come back online? Is that — is there any — I don’t know there may be some pull-forward revenue that leaks into the first half of the year. I don’t know, obviously, you gave us the fourth quarter here. But as you look out to next year, is 20% in appropriate North Star for next year given the revenue drivers back online? And then I guess, Fabrizio, can you help us size the travel business a little better since it’s such a big swing factor in the model here going forward. I think it was about 15% of sales pre-COVID, half of it China.

You spoke a little bit about the shape of it at a conference in December that the pre-COVID that Chinese business — the Chinese traveler was largely a Tier 1 international traveler. I think you said Hainan only has completely replaced that, but it’s a different customer, maybe a lower-tier customer. just because this moves the model around so much, can you help us just think about how big that business is today in the non-China markets, Hainan — non-Hainan China to help us think about the model.

Tracey Travis : So let me just — and Fabrizio will pick up on your questions on Travel Retail. But Travel Retail actually was larger. You’re remembering, Michael, our online business was pandemic. Travel Retail was more like 26% pre-pandemic. But in terms of the operating margin for fiscal ’24, as you can imagine, with some of the more recent events, we are still going through what our expectations are for fiscal ’24, and we’ll certainly provide guidance as we normally do in the August time frame. I think 20% is a little ambitious right now for fiscal ’24 based on what we’re seeing. But some of that has to do with how currency moves, which was my previous comment in terms of if you have projections on currency, let me know.