Essex Property Trust, Inc. (NYSE:ESS) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

John Pawlowski: Okay. Maybe shifting over to the private market, and I joined the call a few minutes late, so apologies if I missed this, but Rylan, I’m curious where you think market clearing cap rates are right now in kind of the urban cores of San Fran and San Jose, I imagine they’re pretty close to redline right now. So I’m just curious, what type of pricing do you think buyers and sellers might agree on pricing in the kind of urban high-rise environment in San Fran, San Jose?

Rylan Burns: Hey John, I appreciate the question. I hesitate to give you a specific number, because as you are well aware, when there is not any transactions, it’s very difficult to pinpoint where buyers are. I also would take some pause with the idea of a redlining a whole city. We are still seeing — or we’ve seen some transactions occur, year-to-date, and the buyer profile is different than what we’ve typically seen. I think you’re seeing some family office buyers who are coming in and looking at the basis versus replacement costs that are still continuing to transact in some of these sub-markets that you mentioned. So obviously a challenged market fundamentally over the past year or two, but as those turn, I suspect you’re going to see people, investors come back in and — so I’ll leave it at that, without giving you a specific number, but hopefully that color is helpful.

John Pawlowski: Yeah, no, it definitely is. Maybe one follow-up. Just curious, I know you’ve been talking more suburban over the last few years. What — like what pricing becomes interesting to you to go back into these urban markets that have not really healed from COVID? What kind of range of cap rates would you be willing to be a buyer at?

Rylan Burns: Thanks, John. Another good question. As you know, we force rank our 30 plus sub-markets and forecast a rent growth for five years, forward looking based on our fundamental analysis. And so the cap rates have to accommodate for a higher IRR based on those rent growth estimates. So there is a price at which we would be willing to invest in these submarkets. I will say, given the performance we’ve seen over the past several years with the suburban strongly outperforming and where we’re looking at supply for the next few years, I would think, on average, incremental dollars will go towards our portfolio investments that look similar to what our portfolio mix currently is demonstrating. But there is a price and we have our — we’re turning over every rock and looking for opportunities and I’m optimistic we’re going to see more in the next few years.

John Pawlowski: Okay, thanks for the time.

Operator: Our next question comes from Connor Mitchell with Piper Sandler. Please proceed with your question.

Connor Mitchell: Hey, thanks for the time. Just wanted to follow up on some of the in-migration discussion. Would you be able to kind of give a waiting or the amount of impact that you’re expecting from international migration maybe compared to historical figures, whether that’s 10% of the growth compared to the current return to office we’re looking for? How much of an impact do you think that could have versus the other demand factors looking forward?

Angela Kleiman: Hey Connor, It’s Angela here. That’s a good question. The one thing I can point you to is California historically has a negative net in-migration, so 17 out of the last 20 years, even during years when we have significant growth. And so — but once you factor in international, net migration becomes positive. As far as the exact percentage, that’s influenced by a lot of factors. It’s influenced by, of course, supply and the demand and where the macroeconomy generally is. And of course it’s influenced by the affordability ratio. So I don’t think I could do you justice by making a straight line from migration number to a absolute percentage of increase.