Essex Property Trust, Inc. (NYSE:ESS) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Daniel Tricarico: Great, thanks for the time.

Operator: Our next question comes from Steve Sakwa with Evercore. Please proceed with your question.

Steve Sakwa: Yeah, thanks. First, Jessica, could you provide a kind of a loss to lease [Technical Difficulty] and an earn-in figure for the portfolio?

Jessica Anderson: [Technical Difficulty] is consistent with periods pre-COVID, the three years average pre-COVID. And as far as earning goes, typically in the past we look at using roughly 50%, maybe a little bit more of that loss to lease number, which gets us to roughly 70 basis points or 100 basis points. And then we’ll look at whatever our market rent forecast is for the year and take 50% of that and it’s still early and we’ll be evaluating that and providing more information on our fourth quarter. We do see some other building blocks as far as earning for next year with some other income initiatives as well that will contribute to revenue growth as well next year.

Steve Sakwa: Great, thanks. And then maybe just on the investment side, I guess, I think Barb might have talked about some repayment of some of the preferred investments. I guess just what are you seeing in the marketplace today from other developers or other investors who might be in trouble form a financing perspective?

Rylan Burns: Hi, Steve, Rylan here. We are still seeing a few opportunities. I would say just a little historical context. The majority of our deals up until last year were development based. This year it’s been a mix, I would say about 50-50 between development and stabilized recaps and I anticipate next year we’re going to see more opportunities for stabilized properties that are seeking recaps. We’ve seen several deals in the past couple of years with above 50% leverage and very low-interest rates capped or swap that will roll in the next few years at a very different interest-rate environment. So with limited NOI growth we’ve seen in several of our markets, we think there are going to be opportunities to put some capital to work.

Steve Sakwa: Great, thanks. That’s it from me.

Operator: Our next question comes from Joshua Dennerlein with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Joshua Dennerlein: Yeah, hey guys. I appreciate that your markets have lower supply than a lot of other markets out there across the country. But just kind of curious on what you’re seeing as far as demand goes in San Francisco and Seattle and then maybe what do we need to see to kind of see an acceleration of that demand in those markets?

Angela Kleiman: Hey, it’s Angela here. I think on the demand side for Northern California, we do want to acknowledge that it remains soft, but I do think that we got two things happening. One is from a year-over-year comp perspective, September was still quite robust last year because that was before the tech sectors began their retrenchment. And at this point what we’re seeing is that, that has stabilized and so that’s a — definitely a good indicator. As far as other indications, we look at, of course, unemployment claims that remain stable and WARN notices, it’s back to pre-COVID levels. So that all points to that the market is functioning as it should. In terms of looking forward, we do think that the technology sector, the hiring needs to return in a more robust way.

It’s — this is — what it looks like is that they’re going through kind of the tail end of the retrenchment and so we do see light at the end of the tunnel from that perspective. And of course, having the remote job hiring, which is now in 8% versus it was 25% last year, and of course 100% during COVID, that need to continue to decline, and which we expect that to happen. And then, of course, the last piece is really the international migration, which has been quite muted as a result of COVID and of course, the various retrenchment. And so with those three elements, those are all potential upside for our markets.