Essent Group Ltd. (NYSE:ESNT) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

You’ll grow organically and you’ll complement that with acquisitions, but that’s down the road.

Bose George: Okay. Great. Thanks. And then just in terms of financing it, can you give cash at the insurance company for buying title insurers?

Mark Casale: I am sorry, could you repeat that?

Bose George: Like, is it’s funded with HoldCo cash? Or I mean, is it possible to buy title insurers at the insurance company itself?

Mark Casale: Good question. This will be €“ the acquisition will be at Essent U.S. Holdings. So, just to remind everyone, Essent U.S. Holdings, is a sub of Essent Group. And Essent Guaranty is under Essent U.S. Holdings. So this will be a sister company to Essent Guaranty. So, different pots of capital, for sure.

Bose George: Okay. Great. Thanks and then just one last one. On the expenses for next year, I didn’t know if you said that, but did you give guidance for what we should expect for OpEx for next year?

Mark Casale: We’re right around $175 million, but that does not include title. So it’s just the MI business and obviously, we’ll include title upon the close and we’ll add that. But €“ so it’s pretty much business as usual in terms of expenses. Little noise in the fourth quarter due to the deal and there will be a little noise with some of the transaction costs, but in terms of the core business, we feel pretty good about that number.

Bose George: Okay. Great. Thanks.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Geoffrey Dunn from Dowling & Partners. Your line is open.

Geoffrey Dunn: Thanks. Good morning.

Mark Casale: Good morning.

Geoffrey Dunn: Wanted to look at the credit this quarter a little bit in terms of the current period provision, so ex the development. The average provision there is up a bit. So I was just curious, did you change your claim rate at all? Is that a seasoning of the early-stage delinquencies? Can you provide a little bit more detail?

Dave Weinstock: Yes, Jeff, it’s Dave Weinstock. On the whole, we haven’t really made any significant changes. We have a model €“ an actuarial model that we feel really good about. I think we’ve talked about in the past that our expectations on early claims is somewhere in that 8% to 9% range. And if you look at where our reserves are at December 31, we are at 8% for those early delinquencies. So really nothing significant there as it relates to what came in, in the fourth quarter.

Geoffrey Dunn: So probably more just geography and average loan size?

David Weinstock: Yes, I think that’s fair. Yeah, I think that’s a fair assessment.

Geoffrey Dunn: Okay. And then, Mark, you brought up the cash flow for ’22 in your prepared remarks. And obviously one of the things that’s helping that is, the industry doesn’t really have any paid claims. I was expecting out of COVID once forbearance plan started ending you have a jump in paid claims as you could proceed with those. But it seems like that hasn’t been happening. So is that something that we’re just waiting for the spike to happen? Or has the embedded equity really taken that spike out of the recovery? And if it’s just going to gradually phase up as the notice inventory continues to build out?