Equity Residential (NYSE:EQR) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Mark Parrell: Hey Jeff, it’s Mark. I’m going to start. I’m going to turn it over to Michael. I mean, we’re lucky to have a very experienced team here and — both here in Chicago and then across the country, and a great system for feeling the markets. So, when we start seeing a market improve, when we start seeing a market deteriorate, we can react — or frankly, a submarket or an asset, we react in real time. We don’t wait for macroeconomic data. So, we’re certainly aware of what’s going on. We watch all those employment reports keenly. But I think we’re ahead of that. I think we feel that in our leasing in advance. Because again, if someone lost the job and they immediately got a new one, the government’s data may take some time to show that.

The unemployment reports have been really good. So I guess I would say, as we go through the year, we’re going to depend on Michael and his team, and he can elaborate on that in a minute. I have a great revenue management process, great communication on site to sort of see what’s going on in real time and adjust in real time.

Michael Manelis: Yes. And I think, Jeff, the only thing I would add to that is clearly, you’re going to try to maximize rate and you’re going to see whether or not you’re getting that corresponding closing rate or the application volume that you need based on how many units you have to sell. And that’s typically what we’re looking at week in, week out, which is that ratio, and then we’re making decisions whether or not we’re leaning in on rate or kind of letting the rates soften a little bit and kind of position ourselves differently. But, on top of just that feel that you have, we’re watching these demographic changes, the income ratios, I think Mark alluded to before, we’re hyper focused on transfer activity, are they moving up in size, down in size, what are they doing, roommate activity.

And then, of course, we’re watching that new supply in these markets. And that concession volume that they’re issuing is a signal to us whether or not they’re getting the velocity they need because that absorption rate of that supply is going to tell us whether we’re going to feel more or less pressure from it.

Mark Parrell: Yes. Just to add one last thought. It’s Mark again. I mean, we do think about overarching themes. I mean, Michael has been running the business ever since the economy started to feel a little shakier, with a focus on occupancy and retention. He’s opened up some of his renewal ranges. So, we do — macroeconomics and what we feel in the general U.S. economy does inform some of these leans but we’re quick to learn from what’s going on on-site, and that’s more important to us than any set of numbers coming from anywhere else. So I’ll also tell you in places like New York and Boston, we feel so good about the supply picture and heretofore the jobs picture that those markets are places where our lean will be more aggressive than a place where we might have more anxiety like downtown San Francisco or downtown Seattle. So, we do inform some of those decisions, Jeff, with the big picture. But again, we like to watch what’s going on property by property.

Jeff Spector: Thank you. That’s really helpful. So I guess, just to confirm then, as we think about the guidance and the upper half of the range, if this recession is pushed out to the second half, is that kind of the upper end of the guidance range scenario?

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