While recognizing challenges in these two markets, overall, our business remains healthy. Even with these now muted expectations, 2023 is on track to deliver very strong same-store revenue growth with several positive trends that we expect to continue into 2024 and support our business. First, our residents remain in good shape financially with rent-to-income ratios remaining at 20% portfolio-wide. Resident lease breaks and transfer activities to reduce rent, often early indicators of resident economic stress remain below pre-pandemic levels and in line with seasonal expectations. Overall, the job market and our residents remain resilient, which would expect — which we expect to carry into 2024. Our resident retention remains very good. Turnover in the portfolio remains some of the lowest that we have seen.
Single-family home purchases continue to be an expensive housing alternative, especially in our established markets. In fact, only 7.5% of our residents who moved out, bought home as the reason in the third quarter which is one of the lowest numbers we have seen since we started tracking the data back in 2006. At this point, we are not seeing anything to suggest that the overall turnover rate in the portfolio will not remain low. As I mentioned earlier on the demand side, generally, the employment picture, particularly for the college educated, remain solid and supportive of continuing demand into 2024. So, as I already noted, the high-quality job creation machine in San Francisco and Seattle recently paused, but longer-term fundamentals support the potential future growth.
On the supply side, overall, we are favorably positioned, particularly compared to those concentrated in the Sunbelt. We should benefit from less direct competitive supply pressure in most of our established markets while DC will be about the same and Seattle will have elevated supply in 2024. When looking at new supply as a percent of inventory, there are significant differences between the overall Sunbelt and our expansion markets — as compared to our established markets. The average new supply as a percent of total inventory in our established markets is around 2%, which includes the Seattle market at 4.5% which is the only outlier both on an absolute percent basis and relative to historical norms. Meanwhile, the Sunbelt markets are forecasted at just around 6% and our expansion markets range between a low 4% in Atlanta and a high of nearly 10% in Austin, which will result in pronounced supply pressure.
This shouldn’t be overly impactful for us since only 5% of our NOI is located in these expansion markets and, in fact, may present acquisition opportunities for us as financially stressed developers sell properties. So, putting all of these factors together, our overall revenue outlook for 2024 right now anticipate solid growth led by the East Coast markets. As you can see in the management presentation, our embedded growth going into next year is trending slightly above pre-pandemic norms and loss to lease is generally in line. With bad debt net, it is hard to predict the exact amount of tailwind from improvement, but our view is that we will continue to gradually work our way back towards pre-pandemic levels. The eviction process is taking twice as long as it did pre-pandemic, and this speed is not yet sufficient to both clear the backlog and allow for new typical volume of evictions to be processed.
That said, we see no decline in the credit quality of our resident and their propensity to pay. We continue to believe that we will see meaningful improvement in 2024. In addition to the tailwind from bad debt net, we expect to see some incremental lift from several of the operating initiatives that we have in place around renewals, parking, connectivity, and other income opportunities. Moving to expenses, which continued to trend in line, we would expect our 2024 same-store expense growth to be slightly below this year. We will feel continued pressure on the repair and maintenance lines with some of the new technology fees like Smart Home and Wi-Fi, although the comp period from 2023 is pretty high, so that will help offset some of that growth rate.
Insurance is clearly in for another significant increase. And right now, we expect real estate taxes to be higher than this year, but nothing that will create too much overall pressure. Some of the growth in these expense categories will be mitigated by continued operating efficiencies in the payroll line being created from our centralization initiatives. Let me wrap up by saying that the apartment business continues to be good with favorable demographics driving demand and limited new supply in most of our markets. We will continue to enhance our operating platform to take advantage of the opportunities that the markets present while delivering a seamless customer experience to our residents. I want to give a shout out for our amazing teams across our platform for their continued dedication to their residents and focus on delivering these results.
With that, I will turn the call over to the operator to begin the Q&A session.
Operator: [Operator Instructions]. And we’ll go first to Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI.
Steve Sakwa : Thanks. Good morning. Michael, I was just wondering if you could expound a little bit on the October numbers on the new side. If you do sort of the — I guess the implied change, if you stripped out Seattle and San Francisco, the number was only down 30 bps, but that kind of implies that those markets were down kind of high single digits to almost 10% in October which is sort of like a month-free or rents are down with some concessions. Are we thinking about that right? And I guess, just trying to figure out what really turned the market to be that south. And it sounds like it’s really in the urban core as opposed to less in the suburban communities?
Michael Manelis : Steve, this is Michael. So yes, you are thinking about it correct. When you look at the October new lease spreads and you drill into Seattle, San Francisco, and I kind of put the expansion markets in there as well, they are running in the new lease change rate in the high negative single digits. If you drilled into San Francisco and Seattle, I’ll tell you about 400 basis points of that is driven from the increased concession use. So, you can almost look at that negative 8%, negative 9%, split it in half, and say half is from increased concession use. The other half is from rate. Some of that rate decline is really a function of who moved out, when did they move in, but the rates are down about 2%, 2.5% in those markets on a year-over-year basis.
And if we drilled in even deeper into there, it is heavily concentrated into those urban cores of both Seattle and San Francisco. But as I said in the prepared remarks, the suburbs aren’t completely immune from it. When you went around San Francisco, we are using some concessions on the East Bay concentrated in Alameda. But when you look at the value of the concessions, we’re up at like six weeks, call it, 55% of the applications receiving six weeks in Seattle and San Francisco, which is very different than what you see in the suburbs, which are running less than a month.
Steve Sakwa : Great. And then just maybe a follow-up on the transaction market. Mark, you sort of talked about maybe starting to see some increased activity, particularly in the Sunbelt. I’m just curious where that transaction market is? Where is the bid ask? I know you’re sort of maybe a little bit indifferent on cap rates based on where you can sell. But just how are you thinking about pricing? And how have you may be changed your underwriting?
