Equifax Inc. (NYSE:EFX) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Heather Balsky: Great. Thank you. And on — in terms of your sort of overall non-mortgage business, so you talked about the fact that you’re assuming a weakening economy in the back half. Can you just help us — I know you don’t necessarily guide the individual quarters, but how to think about the cadence from 1Q to 2Q and then into the back half? And just sort of what’s baked into your outlook.

A €“ Mark Begor: It’s tricky to do without getting into the quarter. I think we’ve given you an outlook for the year and an outlook for the first quarter and then — which we don’t typically do. We also gave you some visibility around what we expect margins to do because of the unusual — the acceleration of the cloud cost savings and the broader restructuring of the company, that kind of 30% to 36% EBITDA margins gives you a lot of visibility around the profitability side. What else would you add, John?

A €“ John Gamble: I think it’s about all we can add, right? So I mean, we gave fairly good visibility on how we expect margins to substantially enhance through the year, going from about 30-ish, right, to 36% by the end of the year. And we said we’ll start seeing those cost savings really kick in, in the second quarter. So beyond that, not much more to say.

Q €“ Heather Balsky: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Faiza Alwy with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions.

Q €“ Faiza Alwy: Yes. Hi, thank you. First, I just wanted to follow up on the USIS B2B online growth that looks like it accelerated in 4Q. I’m curious how you expect that business to trend in 2023. Like was there something specific that drove the acceleration, or was it just a matter of comps? And maybe if you can comment on what type of pricing benefit you expect to see in that business in 2023?

A €“ John Gamble: Yeah. So what we — what Mark mentioned is that the way the planning was built is we assumed about a 5% non-mortgage growth. And overall, you were referring to acceleration in online, right? I’m referring to overall non-mortgage growth of about 5%, which is a little lower than it was in the fourth quarter but still very, very strong. And I think the decline from the fourth quarter is principally driven by the fact that we’ve assumed that we’re going to see weakening economic conditions as we move through the year, right? And I think what we’re doing is just reflecting that in the 2023 guidance we provided. So we think that 5% growth with a US economy that weakens through the year, we think is a very nice outcome, and it shows very good performance and continued good performance across banking across auto, across other verticals and then also a return to some level of growth — not high, but some level of growth in our Financial Marketing Services business.

Q €“ Faiza Alwy: Okay. I guess is the cycle price increase that you mentioned, is that primarily in mortgage, or is that you think going to positively impact the B2B online business, the nonmortgage business as well?

A €“ Mark Begor: Yeah, we take price up generally in all our products every year, varying amounts dependent upon our market position and our commercial position, et cetera.

A €“ John Gamble: Yeah. Mortgage has a very defined price change. On January 1, it’s pretty much industry wide, right? So across other verticals, generally speaking, price increases do happen early in the year but that isn’t always the case, right? So they tend to be more distributed throughout the year. So it isn’t as unified an event outside of mortgage. But yes, we do expect to continue to get price. We certainly had a price benefit in the fourth quarter, and we expect to continue to have price benefits as we move through 2023.

Q €“ Faiza Alwy: Got it. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Andy Grobler with BNP Paribas. Please proceed with your questions.

Andy Grobler: Hi. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Firstly, just one on the compensation. Just to clarify, you’ve noted that it’s going to come back in 2023 relative to 2022. Where would that stand versus 2021? In other words, it was just 2022 kind of artificially are unusually low, and we’re going back to a more normal level now?

Mark Begor: Yes. I think that’s the right way to think about it. In 2022, we set out a plan for the year at this time last year, where we didn’t anticipate a mortgage market change or interest rates going up or inflation where it was. And we missed that plan. And the way our compensation structures are aligned, as you might imagine, are tied to the performance against our plan for the year, and we underperformed that. So our compensation was substantially down in 2022. In 2023, we’re assuming we get back to target levels, which would be more like 21%.

John Gamble: 2021 was a very good year, right? So our comp was strong in 2021 because 2021 was a strong year overall.

Andy Grobler: Yes. Yes. And just to kind of follow-up on the costs and so forth. You had cost savings plans from the cloud transformation baked into expectations anyway. And now you’ve talked about the $120 million of savings next year. What is the increment versus your previous expectations within the $120 million?

Mark Begor: Yes. You said the $120 million next year, it’s actually this year, which I think you meant is 2023.

Andy Grobler: Yes, this year, sorry.

Mark Begor: Yes. And we didn’t break that out for you, but the $120 million is a combination of accelerating some of the cloud cost savings that we had planned. So the — I think we said in the call earlier, no change in what we expected to deliver from the cloud savings. We’re accelerating some of that into 2023. We also said we expect additional cloud cost savings in 2024 and likely some in 2025. And then on top of that, in 2023, inside the $120 million is at a broader restructuring and efficiencies across the company to deliver additional cost savings that are incremental our long-term cloud savings that we’ve talked about for the last couple of years.

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