Equifax Inc. (NYSE:EFX) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Faiza Alwy: Okay, understood. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Toni Kaplan from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now live.

Toni Kaplan: Thanks for taking my question. Historically, pricing wasn’t really a big contributor to growth for the bureaus overall, but it seems like it’s more of a driver in recent years for you and especially now. Obviously, work number has been an area you’ve been able to increase price. I think you’ve also talked about introducing new products at higher price points in other parts of the business, too. So I guess when we think about like a 7% to 10% normalized organic growth rate for Equifax, how much of that should come from price increases and maybe help us out with regard to like the segments as well?

Mark Begor: Sure. First, I’m not sure when you talk about history, I’ve only been here five years, but over the past five years, price has always been a lever for Equifax and, I believe, for our competitors. I think it’s one of the things that data analytics companies have is if you have more valuable data, you’re able to charge more for it. Price, as you point out, we really execute two ways, pure price, meaning we do annual price increases. And we also get price through delivering new products with either more historical data or data combinations that deliver more value to our customers. And remember, our sale is an ROI sale. So with regards to the 7% to 10% organic, which is the subset of our 8% to 12%, if you go back to our Investor Day from a couple of years ago, there’s charts on each business where we talk about the levers to deliver that 7% to 10%.

And as a reminder, the 7% to 10% is really driven by EWS being north of that and International and USIS being south of that. And if you think about we have levers that are fairly balanced to deliver that 7% to 10%. You’ve got a few points over the long term of market in GDP. You’ve got a few points of price. You’ve got a few points each of these are kind of a couple — 2 points to 3 points, a couple of points of product driving that top line. And then you’ve got penetration in new verticals that we move into. And that’s kind of how you walk up. And then in EWS uniquely, we get a couple of points from records. So I think 2, 3, 4 points from record additions over the long term that drive our revenue. And as you know, on the records is because we’re already getting inquiries and when we add a new record to the data set we monetize.

So that drives the revenue growth. So I wouldn’t characterize price as being disproportionate in — versus the other levers that we have, and it’s been fairly consistent over the time I’ve been here about how we’ve executed it.

John W. Gamble, Jr.: And then we’ll publish a supplemental deck here in the next couple of hours. And then in that deck for each of the business units, we’ll provide a walk kind of for the long-term model that gives you price and depending on the business unit records, etcetera, that can provide perspectives on how we expect to be able to drive benefits for the drivers between — the drivers of our revenue growth on a long-term basis. So hopefully, that will help as well.

Toni Kaplan: Yes, terrific. And then if I caught your comments earlier correctly, you mentioned that 50% of your revenue is coming — within EWS is coming from products containing historical records. Has that mix meaningfully changed versus like a year ago, just wanting to understand?

Mark Begor: It’s probably up slightly from a year ago, but it’s up meaningfully from three, four, five years ago. And it’s really — as you may recall, Toni, and we talked about it, as we’ve moved EWS to the cloud, call it 18 months ago almost, it really opened up the window for them number one, to deliver new products; and number two, a lot of those new products are using trended or historical data, which was more challenging to do pre-cloud. So — and you’ve seen EWS’ Vitality Index, which kind of pre-cloud was in the 3% to 5% range, something like that, probably at the low end. And now as we talked about earlier this morning is north of 20. And all those products, either our data combinations or predominantly our trended historical data.

And if you think about it, just quite — it’s common sense, Mark’s income today is very valuable as a data element, but Mark’s income over the last 36 months is even more valuable if it’s going up. It’s a very important indicator if it was going down. And then if it’s stable, it’s an important indicator. So that’s the value that we’re able to deliver in that massive historical data set we have. And we would expect that 50% to move up, but it’s probably up 20 points in the last three or four years.

John W. Gamble, Jr.: It’s up certainly significantly, right. And I think if you just look at it by line of business, mortgage has grown substantially, as Mark’s talked about, because of mortgage 36 and the use of trended data across mortgage very broadly now, and that’s moved up towards 50% of transactions. The government is less, right, in terms of trended information. It tends to be more point in time. Talent is virtually all trended information. And then so as the mix of our business moves, that ratio can mix a bit, it can change a bit. But generally speaking, in all of our verticals, we’re driving the mix to trended data from the levels they’re at today.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is coming from Ashish Sabadra from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now live.

Ashish Sabadra: Thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to drill down further on Toni’s question on pricing. And particularly, FICO price increases was a significant tailwind for mortgage revenues within USIS or OIS this year. How should we think about those tailwinds going into next year and offsetting some of the mortgage inquiry headwinds for next year? Thanks.

John W. Gamble, Jr.: Yes. I don’t know if you follow FICO or you talked to the FICO team, but I would expect that they’re going to do a price increase in 2024. You should talk to them. And if they do, we’re obviously the conduit along with you and Experian to deliver that to the marketplace, and that’s something that we would execute on.

Ashish Sabadra: That’s very helpful color. And maybe just on the Boa Vista earnings accretion. So that was pretty positive $0.02 accretion in the quarter. Is that the run rate that we should think about going into 2024 or can you talk about the puts and takes from an earnings accretion perspective in 2024? Thanks.