Equifax Inc. (NYSE:EFX) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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And then, of course, price. Competition maybe is a different question, you know, we think we have a very strong market position. We don’t feel an impact, from the one or two participants that have much smaller businesses, in income and employment. Frankly, we think about our biggest competitor in EWS and income and employment is manual verifications. That’s really the white space. And when you see the TAM, we had a TAM chart for government this quarter, and then we had a TAM for the whole business in last quarter’s deck. That white space between our revenue and the TAM is all manual verifications. And our focus is on delivering our digital solution and driving penetration in there.

George Tong: Got it. That’s helpful. And I wanted to go back to your medium term mortgage outlook at this point, what proportion of mortgages have rates below 5% based on what you see? And how much would rates need to fall for mortgage volumes to go back to pre-COVID levels?

Mark Begor: That’s a very hard question to answer. The second half in particular, first half I don’t have at my fingertips. We have that. And you can reach out to Trevor or Sam, and they can help us. I think there’s public data out there on that. You know, it’s very available on the number of mortgages below 5%. When we think about a mortgage recovery, we think about it being multifaceted and actually mostly driven by purchase. The purchase activity has come down dramatically as what I would call as normal refis. And as you know, there’s two types of refis that happen. There’s rate refis when the rate decrease, which I think is your 5% point. But there’s going to be some level of consumers when rates go down to 5% to 4%, whatever the rates go to, of rate refis.

There’s also a large number of cash out refis. There’s something like $29 trillion or almost $30 trillion of untapped equity in consumers’ homes. And there’s typically a fairly steady amount of cash out refis that happened. Those have been pulled back. There’s still some happening, but they’ve been pulled back meaningfully from what we would characterize as normal because of the rapid increase in rates. And then purchase is a very big part of the mortgage business, and that’s the one that’s been curtailed more. There’s just not a lot of housing stocks for sale. Consumers are not putting, although it’s starting to pick up, but consumers are holding off upgrading from that two bedroom condo to the three bedroom house, or going from a rental property into an owned home.

We would expect as rates stabilize, which they really have in the last, outside of the increase of 20 bps in the last couple of weeks, that they’ve kind of stabilized at this higher level. But the combination of stabilization and then some level of reduction as the Fed takes rates down is, we think will be the stimulus for, activity moving forward over the medium term, pick your, you can call it long or medium term, but meaning 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027 we would expect inflation to get under control. We would expect the Fed to take rates down, likely not to where they were during the COVID timeframe, but back down to more historic normal levels in order to boost economic activity. And we think that’s going to be a stimulus to start driving our mortgage revenue into that $1.1 billion of opportunity as we return to 2015 to 2019 levels.

Operator: Thank you. We reached end of our question-and-answer session. I’d like to turn the floor back over to Trevor for any further closing comments.

Trevor Burns: Yes. Thanks, everybody, for your time today. Do you have any follow-up questions you can reach out to me and Sam. We’ll be around today and tomorrow to discuss. Thanks a lot.

Operator: Thank you. That does conclude today’s teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

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