Greg Silvers: Yes. I think, again, I think right now, I’ll take the second part of that first is the $9.4 billion is really about that runs from kind of July 31st to next year. As long as we don’t see a lot of titles moved, that number feels pretty good, because if you think about that’s the first-half of the — last half of this year and first-half of next year. So I would say the risk is, if it is prolonged, is to the $9.8 billion, that meaning that the second-half of next year, but I still think that we feel that the good thing, RJ, is this trajectory is probably at risk of just balancing out, meaning that if we have if we thought it was going to be $9 billion and $9.8 billion that it balances to $9.2 billion on both. If you look at currently what’s going on, we’re not making any changes, because as I said, we’ve really had one film that we’re aware of, of any meaningful expectation that’s moved.
And we’ve had such outperformance to-date that we’ve overcome that. So this year’s numbers, we haven’t seen really a lot of people move. But if anything, people probably would be moving their number up this year, but they’re kind of holding it right now. But Greg, do you have any?
Greg Zimmerman: No, I agree. I mean, I think, RJ, the critical point is that whatever movie might have moved has been more than offset by the outperformance of Barbie Oppenheimer and…
Greg Silvers: Sound of Freedom.
Greg Zimmerman: Sound of freedom. Thank you. Sorry, yes.
RJ Milligan: Got it. But the Barbenheimer, duo is not — would not be in your lease year for renewal. When you…
Greg Zimmerman: Yes. [Multiple Speakers] Yes, some of it will be. I mean, right now, we’re in the last week, we’re in the Barbenheimer period. And as, you know, Greg noted, second highest weekend ever. So there’s still — we’re still benefiting again, anytime if you talk to somebody in the industry when you’re in August, and you have a — even this weekend where we’re going to have probably between those two approaching $100 million or over $100 million out of those two films this weekend is a really strong August.
Mark Peterson: Plus Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.
Greg Zimmerman: Yes. So I mean, we’re probably easily going to have above $150 million top 10 film weekend. This is, would be great in any August.
RJ Milligan: Thanks. That’s helpful. I want to — I think it was Todd that commented on the clarity, on the deferral and other revenue collections. So that’s very helpful. Thank you. But, Mark, I’m thinking about sort of the 2023 guidance and bridging to 2024, I think that you’re going to see, at least according to this, it’s about $35 million of lower stub and deferral payments expected ‘23 versus ‘24. And then there’s, I think, a $17.8 million reduction in a Regal rent. So that’s about $52 million that’s going to be coming out of ‘23 as we look into ’24? And then what you need to add back is the operating theater profit and then the percentage rents? What else am I missing?
Mark Peterson: Yes. Let me take that a little differently, because I think maybe the Regal part of that might have been a bit overstated. So if you take the $5.10 guidance this year, as you mentioned, we have $35.7 million most of which is non-recurring, that’s worth about $0.47 gets you to $4.63. As far as regal, if you think about it, we had once you get rid of all those deferrals, which I just did in stub payments and so forth, you end up with really we had seven months of full income in ‘22 that we don’t expect in ’23, because the last five months will be the same for both periods. So you have seven months. So if you take those seven months, it was around $7.3 million a month is what the old rent used to be and you take about 22% of that because that was the base rent cut.
That’s worth about $11 million year-over-year. So base rent going down $11 million. And then you have to add to that, what you said, the percentage rents, let’s call that $8.7 million we’ll take a look at that as we give guidance in February, but that’s what we put out and it seems to be tracking. And operating theater property profits of another $6.3 million, that’s $15 million going the other way. So it’s actually once you back out deferrals and all those noise for Regal, Regal is actually going up next year, again, subject to box office, up about $3.7 million. And then as we mentioned, we’re also putting Regal on accrual basis accounting, which is worth about another $2.5 million. So kind of a $6.2 million increase for Regal. So again, you take the $5.10, subtract the $4.7 here at $4.63 add in about $0.08 for the Regal impact.
You’re kind of sitting at $4.71-ish before any growth from this year and next year and all the other puts and takes in G &A and so forth. But that kind of gives you a sort of a starting point.
