Enphase Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ENPH) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Praneeth Satish: Okay. Fair enough. And then, I guess, second question here on the C&I market. Just wondering if you could give us an update on the IQ8P introduction, how that’s progressing. And whether we would see meaningful revenue this year or whether that’s a 2025 event?

Badri Kothandaraman: You’ll see meaningful revenue this year. However, let me step back and tell you about our product and then Raghu can talk a little more. So we introduced the product in the fourth quarter in December. And this is a 480-watt three-phase 208 volt market, primarily addressing the U.S. We estimate the market size approximately a gigawatt. And basically, this helps us to service 20 to 200 kilowatts of installation. And we are talking about examples could be schools, could be hospitals, could be gas stations, could be motels, basically small businesses. So that’s the 20 to 200 kilowatts we are talking about. Our product called IQ8P that generates 480 watts of AC. It can service up to 650-watts DC panels. It has got rapid shutdown.

We have per panel monitoring, and of course, highest quality levels, 25 years of warranty. And there’s now, our long-tail installers have been asking us for this product because they expect the same quality as the residential product. So therefore, they’ve been asking us. Now we are able to service. In addition, we also have the Solargraf software, which is the design and proposal software for those commercial installations. So we did ship a nontrivial amount of units already in Q4 ’23. However, you should understand this is the business where it’s got a little bit longer time, and it’s a project-based business. So therefore, you have multiple parties here in play, which is the building owner, and then he assigns it to program manager, basically employees and installer.

So the sale is a little bit longer compared to residential sales. So it will take us more time to establish a pipeline. But what I know is our product will be good. Our product is very high quality like what I said. So we expect to get our fair share of the market. And we also expect our shipments into the channel to be continuously up quarter-on-quarter through the year.

Operator: The next question comes from Eric Stine of Craig-Hallum. Please go ahead.

Eric Stine: Hi, everyone. So pretty clear from your commentary in the second half, you’re expecting to get somewhat back to normal when the sell-in or the under shipments starting to go away. I’m just curious, as you think longer term, I mean, do you see a scenario where you can get back to, I think you mentioned $700 million, those types of levels potentially in ’25. I mean is this a market even if the inventory in the channel is cleared. Do you think that growth is possible in a higher interest rate environment. How do you think about things? And I know you don’t guide, but how do you think about things as we get into ’25 first and second half?

Badri Kothandaraman: I mean that’s the whole point where we are starting to diversify our product portfolio rapidly. We are planning to introduce — we already introduced IQ8 microinverters in 21 countries last year. All of us haven’t seen those results yet because of the inventory. But once the channel is lean, we should start to see results from all of those countries. So that’s one. We plan to introduce even more number of countries in 2024, which is there are still a lot of markets in Europe, Nordics that are untapped. We are going to introduce microinverters there. In addition, there are also countries in Asia that we are going to introduce. So you’ll see that. Next, batteries, you come to batteries. Batteries, I already topped out the sell-through continuously increasing.

Already talked about our product introduction into places like Australia, U.K., Italy, these places, we are not that big. And we’re going to be introducing batteries into other places as well. India is a big untapped market, for example. So many more places in Asia as well as even, I would say, Latin America, for example. We got a lot of countries there which need both solar and storage. So we are focused on multiple countries for both solar plus storage. In addition, we talked about for Europe, we talked about social housing and balcony solar. These two social housing for example is apartment complexes as well as row houses in Netherlands. In the picture each house, having a small system, about three kilowatts, six panel system and our microinverters shine when it comes to small systems.

Balcony Solar is another exact countries like Germany, Italy, Austria allow you to export energy into the grid and 800, basically 800-watts of export into the grid. And we plan to basically leverage those markets as well. And each of those is a 250-megawatt market. So that will help us address 500-megawatts. In addition, the other thing we talked about is EV chargers. We are planning to introduce EV chargers in a lot of countries in Europe. And as you know, Europe is at the forefront of electric vehicles. So EV charging, for example, U.K., Netherlands, Germany and France. We will have products in the third quarter that are shipping. Additionally, bidirectional EV chargers. Bidirectional EV chargers, yes, you can argue that the price on an EV charger is under $1,000.

But when you have a bidirectional EV charger, all of a sudden, value is a lot higher. We are already working on a GaN-based bidirectional chargers, which will interface to the car’s battery around 800 volt D.C and that will convert DC to AC there. And it will plug right into our Ensemble Energy Management System that consists of solar and a home battery. So I talked about microinverters. I talked about batteries, usual markets going into many countries, talked about social housing, Balcony Solar, talked about EV chargers, which is into Europe as well as bidirectional chargers overall. And then the last one is software. We are going to have energy management software. This is AI-based software, which will do production, consumption forecasting and make the right decisions, particularly when it comes to serving markets with the dynamic tariffs and imbalance.

And that is going to be worth quite a bit for customers. So we do expect to have our fair share affair. So of course, we are always looking at how to increase our revenue per home, and that’s our focus. But we have a lot more revenues in front of us that we need to execute on.

Operator: Okay. Thanks for all the detail.

Operator: The next question comes from Christine Cho of Barclays. Please go ahead.

Christine Cho: Good evening. Thank you for taking my question. I just wanted to get some more color on the Netherlands and these dynamic rates. And I was curious, with the way they’re structuring these rates, is there any sort of risk that homeowners might elect to just take a battery and no solar system to play the arbitrage in rate. And could you give us an idea of how much better the payback is for Solar Plus storage versus just storage under the dynamic rate structure? And then just with how things are progressing there, is there any real reason why anyone would buy a solar system without a battery at this point?

Raghu Belur: Yes. So you have to look at the intent, the Dutch market is really very, very focused on converting to renewables. So if we see the solar plus battery to be the predominant market. Of course, there may be some corner cases where we may see people purely doing it for arbitrage purposes, but we primarily see the market to be that battery gets associated with solar. It could be battery plus solar — sorry storage plus battery plus EV charger plus heat pump and all of that managed by as Badri mentioned in artificial intelligence and machine learning-based energy management software. So we don’t see in the future that there’ll be any system that would be solar only, it would be storage only or solar only as well. We expect that it will always be an energy system, and that’s the transition that the Netherlands market would also undergo very quickly.

And by managing dynamic tariffs, which you need very sophisticated software to do because it’s a day-ahead market and the rate is going to change on an hourly basis, you need very good forecasting of both production as well as consumption. You need to be able to manage all of that. You need to be able to steer, when am I going to charge my battery? When am I going to discharge my battery? When I’m going to charge my EV soon? When am I going to be able to discharge my EV? Manage your heat pump, buy and sell energy from the grid. All of that is done by that sophisticated software that we have. And layer on top of that, grid services to participation in an imbalanced market. This is a direction in which the entire Dutch market will move towards, but always solar will be a key element of it because that’s the intake.