Eni S.p.A. (NYSE:E) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Guido Brusco: On the integration and the feedstock, I mean, the 30% is, of course, at a regime. So, when we mentioned this level of integration was at the back end of the plan. As you know, we have quite an exciting ramp-up of production over time. Just two years ago, we were producing a few thousands of tons of oil, vegetable oil. Last year, we produced around 40 and this year, 100. So, you can see the scale of the ramp-up. We have currently projects in nine countries, Kenya Congo, Ivory Coast, Mozambique, Angola, Rwanda, Kazakhstan, Vietnam, Italy and more countries, and we are adding more countries over time, which provides us kind of diversification by geography and by kind of feedstock, which makes us more confident on our ability to deliver those volumes at the end of the plan.

Operator: The next question is from Peter Low with Redburn Atlantic. Please go ahead.

Peter Low: The first question was on the Plenitude results. Pro forma EBITDA, we did double Q-on-Q. And you’re already a third of the way to the full year guidance of €1 billion. Can you perhaps give a bit more color on what’s driving that improvement and whether there are any seasonal or one-off effects in there? I was just trying to gauge whether you’re kind of running ahead of plan there. And then another question on the biorefining business. How do you see margins evolving for the rest of this year? In the U.S., it looks like they’re still quite weak, but we have less visibility as to what’s happening in Europe.

Francesco Gattei: Yes, the first question, Plenitude to Stefano Goberti, they said they had Plenitude, and then again to Stefano Ballista.

Stefano Goberti: Peter, the first quarter 2024 was a good quarter for us, but we are taking advantage of what we have done so far also last year. So, putting in production our renewable capacity. And also, we see good result in our retail activity, both in Italy, where we maintain good marginality, and also abroad where we are recovering marginality because the market conditions are better off compared to prior period where the regulator put in place a measure to protect the vulnerable clients. So, now better prices, better market condition, we could do our job clearly better. So, there is no, let’s say, one-off element in our result, it’s just putting together our activity and then get into results.

Stefano Ballista: Yes. On margin, 2024 is a transitional year, both in Europe and in U.S. This is well known. It’s given from, let’s say, macro dynamics, supply and demand. Main reason is Sweden change of mandates. We expect, in any case, increasing margin in the second half of the year, in Europe for two main reasons. First, we got the approval from Holland of the new mandates, it gets to around 30% in terms of energy content. This means an upside of about 400,000 tons per year. And given current market size, this is pretty much 10% of increase. That’s the first comment. The second one, there is ongoing an antidumping procedure related to, let’s say, flows from Far East. And this could revise the market dynamics and market competition with a significant effect on margin.

Looking forward on the following year, of course, we have a big change related to the refuel aviation and to the deployment of the RED III that has been approved, but will be — each state will have 18 months to get it deployed. So it’s going to be effective from the following years. Last comment on U.S., again, let’s say, similar expectation and more focus on 2025. We are waiting for the last — the final approval of the revised target for — from the carb related to the GAG reduction for California. Rumors are talking of an increased step-up already in 2025, initially was expected 5% increase. Now there is a chance to have between even 7% and 9%. This will drive a significant step up in terms of demand and in terms of market dynamics.

Operator: The next question is from Michele Della Vigna with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Michele Della Vigna: Congratulations on the higher buyback. Two questions, if I may. The first one is on LNG. You’re probably negotiating some long-term contracts for some of your new projects, including Congo. The second floating LNG in Mozambique. And I was wondering how you’re finding the appetite to sign long-term contracts at this time? And if the shape still looks more or less 12% to 13% of Brent prices? And then second, I wanted to come back a little bit to your buyback framework. It’s very clear how you’re distributing to shareholders 60% of the extra cash flow from the initial forecast you made at the Capital Markets Day. But I was wondering if perhaps, it wouldn’t be worth also considering some of the value from the proceeds you’re getting from some of your high-margin businesses as part of something that you may want to share with investors in the formal buyback?

Francesco Gattei: The first on the buyback, and then I leave to Guido, Cristian, the answer related to the LNG market. On the buyback, we prefer to associate or to link our distribution policy to the strategic evolution of the Company, in terms of clearly of cash flow distribution, higher distribution in case of upside, et cetera. It’s clear that once you proceed with the overall rebalance from the point of view of leverage, from the point of view of the portfolio activity, then you have a different configuration of your assets, of your setup. And therefore, you could think to policy that will, let’s say, support a distribution in terms of cash flow from operation with different percentages. But we don’t want to consider some one-off element of distribution related to the portfolio.

Portfolio is an element that is used — was used for designing the Eni or Eni setup of today will be, again, an element to fine-tune the value or exiting certain mature assets or extracting the cash flow, anticipated cash flow from exploration. But this is clearly is a part of a broader strategic view where the distribution is as an element connected to the cash flow from operation. And then I leave to Guido for the LNG.

Guido Brusco: Michele, I — following my comments in the — when we were we were discussing the fourth quarter result. We still see appetite. And I mean, at that time, we are commenting some results of some of our bids. We have now more data indicating that there is appetite, particularly in the Far East where there is, I mean, interest to sign long-term contract. Clearly, this is based on the view of those players on the growth of the economies and also the pace of the phaseout of the coal in the energy mix of that part of the of the world.

Operator: The next question is from Alastair Syme with Citi. Please go ahead.

Alastair Syme: Francesco, apologies if I missed this at the Capital Markets Day, but can you explain on Plenitude, what was behind the reduction in equity that was sold to ERP from 9% to 7.6% at close? Is it something to do with the amount of debt that was put into the business? And then my second question was, you’ve — press reports having you sold down a little bit of Ghasha in Abu Dhabi, was a little bit, you’ve gone from 25% to 10%. Can you just explain what’s driving this change? And you haven’t disclosed the price, but maybe you can give us some sort of broad context as we look at the deleverage question?

Francesco Gattei: Yes. About the Plenitude deal, if you remember, the EIP had, let’s say, they presented an initial offer with an option to increase and raise that option for a certain amount that is not covering the overall full option. Clearly, it has nothing to do with us. It’s a decision by the potential buyer. Discussion are going on and still continuing on potential upside of this stake, but it’s something that is related to the funding capability of the buyer and the — from their point of view of the willingness to proceed with an higher stake. About the Ghasha in Abu Dhabi. I leave to Guido.