Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE:ESRT) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

John Kim: Great, thank you.

Christina Chiu: Thanks.

Operator: Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Michael Griffin with Citi. Please proceed with your questions.

Michael Griffin: Great, thanks. Maybe going back to the guidance for a second. If you strip out the $0.015 of non-core in the quarter, you do about $0.235 for run rate for 2024. If you look at the other pieces, it looks like you had about a $0.015 benefit from the Observatory NOI increase, call it $0.01 benefit from occupancy. I was just curious, are there any other puts and takes on the guidance? How should we think about kind of getting to that midpoint?

Christina Chiu: I think on the guidance, as always, we point to our building blocks, and we try to provide a lot of transparency. And what you could see is same-store NOI, cash property NOI is roughly flattish. And we do pick up the midpoint does represent a pickup from where we ended 2023 for the Observatory. So that gets us to our initial guidance range with the revenue at modest growth, modest positive growth and same-store operating expenses at 6% to 8% up, and we’ll continue to narrow as we have better visibility over the course of the year.

Michael Griffin: All right. That was helpful. And then just maybe going back to kind of capital allocation opportunities. You’ve kind of stressed in the past that the simple structure, no joint ventures out there. But it seems like there are opportunities, I reason that there’s nothing off the table. If the right joint venture opportunity came up, would you entertain it? Or that’s just not part of the long-term strategy?

Tony Malkin: Griff, Tony here. Absolutely we’ll entertain the right structure the right structure, the right capital at the right price. And if it’s more logical to incorporate the use of third-party capital, we will.

Michael Griffin: Great, that’s it for me. Thanks for the time.

Operator: Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Camille Bonnel with Bank of America. Please proceed with your questions.

Camille Bonnel: Congrats everyone on a solid quarter and to Christina and Steve on your promotion. Last quarter, you had around 200,000 square feet of leases in negotiation. And looking at the activity you’ve done to date, it looks like you were able to get those all over the line. So following up on earlier comments, Tom, could you quantify your leasing pipeline and what’s currently under contract?

Thomas Durels: Sure. Well, look, first of all, Camille, we’re off to a great start in the first quarter with approximately 125,000 square feet of new leases signed between the Burlington and Sol de Janeiro leases. We’re constantly adding to our pipeline. But where we sit right now is we have roughly about, call it, about 190,000 square feet of additional leases out in various stages of negotiation or final term sheets. Most of that is in our Manhattan office properties, around 160,000 square feet. So that’s our current pipeline in addition to the Burlington and Sol leases that we just signed. In addition to that, we have probably a few 100,000 square feet of active proposals in various stages of negotiation. Now not all of those will transition into leases, but it gives you an indication that we have a good healthy pipeline of activity.

And this — in the backdrop of very modest lease expirations and very little exposure to tenant move-outs in 2024. So I think we’re incredibly well positioned to improve our leased percentage in 2024.

Camille Bonnel: Appreciate the color there. Just shifting to your liquidity position is very strong, and your earnings outlook has some good momentum. I was wondering how you’re balancing various capital allocation decisions with the potential to increase the dividend. Do you expect to grow this at some point in the near term? Or do you need to see more visibility in operations first?

Christina Chiu: So on the dividend, what we’ve mentioned is it will track the business. However, we’ve also mentioned that we do have a net operating loss carryforward in the balance of approximately $100 million in an environment where capital markets conditions are uncertain, increased cost of capital, it does seem prudent if we have the ability to monetize on that and utilize the cash to return capital in other ways, whether it be share buybacks or pursue opportunities, that’s something that we should consider. So our current dividend level allows us to continue to pay a dividend very comfortably. We’ll continue to monitor the business, we’ll monetize on our NOL, and we’ll see what the conditions are and when it makes sense to raise the dividend.

Camille Bonnel: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Jay Poskitt with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your questions.

Jay Poskitt: Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I was wondering if you could just help bridge the gap between the total office and retail portfolio forecast, which you show on Page 14 of the supplemental and the just 170 basis point uptick in occupancy that guidance implies. I assume a lot of this has to do with the signed leases not yet commenced. But I just wanted to put those two buckets together.

Thomas Durels: Sure. I think we’d given an awful lot of detail on that Page 14, but I think that more simply, if you go back to my earlier comments about the fact that we only have about 183,000 square feet of known vacates that are not — they’re not covered. The balance of our leases expiring in 2024 have been covered by expected renewals, relocations or new leasing. And then only about 75,000 square feet of undecided tenants. Were you looking for — does that answer your question? Or did you have something else on office and retail?

Jay Poskitt: I guess, just to that point, of the roughly 400,000 square feet of the signed leases not yet commenced, would you say that the majority of that will commence in ’24? Or is that kind of over the next two years when that will commence?