Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (NYSE:EBS) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

We are forecasting NARCAN Nasal Spray sales of $480 million to $490 million, an increase of $50 million at the midpoint over the prior guidance, primarily reflecting robust demand from the U.S. public interest channel, Canada and the launch of NARCAN OTC in September 2023. We expect smallpox MCM sales of $180 million to $185 million, a reduction of $8 million at the midpoint from the prior guidance. The reduction reflects a timing shift of international sales for the remainder of 2023. We expect other product sales of $100 million to $110 million, a reduction of $5 million at the midpoint from prior guidance, primarily reflecting a slight reduction in revenue expectations for RSDL. We are forecasting CDMO revenue of $70 million to $75 million, which is within our previous range.

Shifting to profitability metrics. We are forecasting adjusted EBITDA of between negative $25 million to positive $75 million, a decrease of $50 million at the midpoint from the prior guidance range. This range reflects the potential funding timing for the remaining 2023 CYFENDUS procurement, as well as potential one-time costs. And finally, we are forecasting adjusted gross margin of 32% to 38%, a reduction of 250 basis points at the midpoint from the prior guidance range. To conclude, please turn to slide 15 for some summary comments. Our results in the third quarter were strong and we delivered on a variety of important milestones. We are continuing to progress on our initiative to strengthen our business fundamentals by focusing on our core products, serving existing CDMO customers, driving profitability and improving our balance sheet.

We continue to strengthen our quality and compliance across the organization and achieved a key milestone with the warning letter closeout at our Camden facility. In short, our progress through Q3 provides a strengthened foundation for the business to build upon going forward. That completes my prepared remarks and I will now turn the call over to Haywood for closing remarks.

Haywood Miller: Thank you, Rich. We look forward to answering your questions in a moment. But first, I want to reiterate our go-forward priorities. We are continuing to strengthen Emergent’s financial position and our operations by aligning to demand and capitalizing on opportunities in our products business. We are focused on delivering quality products, including NARCAN Nasal Spray and maintaining the manufacturing standards necessary to be a leader in the MCM business. And finally, we are positioning Emergent for strategic future growth by preserving our unique capabilities to help protect and enhance life. By focus on these three priorities, we are becoming a more agile organization that can manage across market cycles and support a broad range of customers.

Over the past 25 years, Emergent has never lost focus on its mission or its people and that is one of the many reasons why I am confident in its ability to drive value for all of our stakeholders, and importantly, continue protecting enhancing life. Now I will turn the call over to the Operator for the Q&A session. Operator?

Operator: Certainly. [Operator Instructions] And I am showing we have a question coming from the line of — for speaker with TD Cowen. Your line is open.

Nick Lorusso: Great. Thanks. This is Nick on for Boris. One for me on NARCAN. Can you speak a little bit more to the uptake in the public interest market in Canada? I know that last quarter, you said that you have seen an increase there in this quarter, you said that it’s been strong, have you also seen an increase there? And then also on the OTC launch, what are you seeing on that and are you seeing an increase in the retail space? Just a little bit more granularity on NARCAN revenue would be great? Thanks.

Paul Williams: Thanks, Nick.

Haywood Miller: All right. Thanks, Nick. We have Paul on the line and so, I think, Paul, those are good questions for you to take on.

Paul Williams: Yeah. Nick, thanks for the question. I think to the PIP and Canada question, I think, the most important thing, I think, at the very top is, the opioid crisis continues to worsen and that trend is growing this year. I think this has really led to an increased need and demand for NARCAN at the state and local level through the PIP channel and recognizing that these organizations are at the front lines of the opioid crisis. In a similar fashion, we are seeing the similar trends happening in Canada, as well as they look to allocate more funding to NARCAN in both U.S. PIP and Canada to address sort of what’s happening at the — at sort of the frontline level with the crisis. To your question around the OTC launch, I think, we are in a really good spot, about six weeks into the launch.

I think, we are we were able to shift to all of our retail customers and online customers and e-commerce customers that we expected to do. This is a new channel for us and as much as expanding access is critical to — for folks to be able to access it on the shelf or online, but the awareness piece is equally as critical. And so the launch of the Ready to Rescue campaign on top of offering NARCAN in the retail setting right now is really in line with what our expectations would be at the first phase of the launch.

Nick Lorusso: Got it. That’s helpful. And just a follow-up on that, I know it’s still early into the launch, of course. But I know that you mentioned at least when you first launched the OTC NARCAN that you shipped out thousands of doses, are you planning to do it in a similar fashion where you will be shipping out thousands of doses or will it be more like an as needed or as needed basis to the different retailers, at least for retail, because e-commerce I am sure is different?