We recently compiled a list of the 10 Best Stocks to Buy According to Value Investor Oldfield Partners. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Embraer S.A. (NYSE:ERJ) stands against the other stocks recommended by value investor oilfield partners.
Investors, in general, follow herd mentality, causing share prices to drop too low after bad news and rise too high after good news, a tendency further amplified by momentum investing. However, Oldfield Partners LLP, a boutique, owner-managed fund management firm, believes that price discrepancies generated through hyped up news about a certain theme could easily distract investors from finding potential bargains – lowly valued stocks, trading at a healthy discount to their intrinsic worth.
Oldfield Partners was founded in November 2004 by Richard Oldfield. Richard holds a BA (Hons) in History from Oxford University and authored the investing book Simple but not Easy, published in 2007. He has a distinguished career in investment management and governance with his tenure at Oxford University Investment Committee and Oxford University Endowment Management Ltd as Chairman from 2007 to 2014. He is also a director of Witan Investment Trust plc and a trustee for both the Royal Marsden Cancer Charity and Canterbury Cathedral Trust.
Oldfield Partners serves a global clientele, including endowments, pensions, charities, and family offices. Oldfield Partners employs a value investing strategy with a focused, diversified portfolio, no leverage, and a long-term approach. It employs several distinct strategies: Global Equity, EAFE, Global Equity Income, Global Small cap and Emerging Markets (including EM ex China) through separate accounts or a variety of pooled funds.
An example of Oldfield Partners’ contrarian investment philosophy is that of South Africa where political and economic crises can create opportunities to purchase quality assets at significant discounts. However, the country’s structural issues, driven by poor policymaking, weakened institutions, corruption, and a hostile business environment, make the potential for high returns from low valuations less certain. Over the past decade, South African capital markets have underperformed, with negative total dollar returns compared to the S&P’s annualized return of over 12%. The recent elections in May further disrupted the political status quo, adding to the uncertainty.
Opportunity drives Oldfield Partners’ investment strategy, which is why their Emerging Market Fund includes a single Russian investment—Lukoil, a low-cost oil and gas producer. Before the war, the rationale for investing in the stock was its production of a globally traded, dollar-denominated commodity, making it less susceptible to Russia’s domestic economy. Since the war, however, the stock has impacted the fund’s performance, though it remains one of the better “performers.” Over the past three years, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has declined by 17%, the oil and gas producer has risen by 62%. Despite this, sanctions have made it impossible for foreign institutions to trade its shares on the Moscow Exchange, forcing the fund to hold them at a “nil value” (zero). The shares remain in custody with dividends still accruing, and the fund continues to seek a legal exit strategy.
Oldfield Partners currently sees more attractive bottom-up investment opportunities in other emerging markets. Although the emerging markets are still generally improving, they make strong valuation targets. While the firm avoids making short-term predictions, their bottom-up valuation models indicate that the fund’s holdings remain appealing, both in absolute terms and relative to other opportunities.
Our Methodology
Stocks mentioned in this article were picked from the investment portfolio of Hosking Partners at the end of the second quarter of 2024. In order to provide readers with a more comprehensive overview of the companies, the analyst ratings for each firm are mentioned alongside other details. A database of around 900 elite hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey in the second quarter of 2024 was used to quantify the popularity of each stock in the hedge fund universe.
At Insider Monkey we are obsessed with the stocks that hedge funds pile into. The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here)
An engineer examining a detailed blueprint of an aircraft.
Embraer S.A. (NYSE:ERJ)
Oldfield Partners’ Stake Value: $14,404,604
Percentage of Oldfield Partners’ 13F Portfolio: 2.72%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 29
Embraer S.A. (NYSE:ERJ) designs, develops, manufactures, and sells aircraft and systems. Embraer recorded its first firm orders from NetJets, with deliveries starting in 2025, and a total of 250 aircraft expected over the next 14 years. Additionally, Embraer (NYSE:ERJ) signed an MoU with Mahindra to pursue the sale of the C-390 Millennium to the Indian Air Force.
Although the division’s revenue declined year-over-year due to supply chain delays and seasonality, Services & Support saw a 12% revenue growth and maintained a record $3.1 billion backlog. The division also began ramping up GTF 1100 engine induction at its Portuguese MRO, expecting revenues to reach $500 million by 2028. EVE, Embraer’s urban air mobility venture, is on track to achieve key milestones in 2024, including the completion of its first prototype and Urban Air Traffic Management trials.
Embraer (NYSE:ERJ) delivered 18 executive jets in Q1, a 125% increase from the previous year, and maintained a strong backlog of $21.1 billion, the highest in seven years. The company reported $900 million in Q1 revenue, a 25% growth year-over-year, driven by strong performance in Executive Aviation and Services & Support. However, Defense & Security and Commercial Aviation faced challenges due to supply chain issues and limited deliveries. The company recorded $47 million in adjusted EBITDA, though adjusted net income was negative at $13 million, reflecting typical first-quarter seasonality. Despite these challenges, Embraer reduced its gross debt by $276 million in Q1 and remains in a strong liquidity position.
Overall ERJ ranks 8th on our list of the stocks recommended by value investor oilfield partners. While we acknowledge the potential of ERJ as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than ERJ but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.