Elevance Health Inc. (NYSE:ELV) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Kevin Fischbeck: Great. Thanks. I just want to go back to redeterminations and how you’re thinking about that. I think you said that you expected to keep about 40% to 45% of the Medicaid redetermination growth, which I think is something close to about a 4% CAGRs into 2019, which seems a little high to me given that total employment is up about 3 million over that time period. So can you just maybe refresh how you’re thinking about keeping those people, why they’ll stay on and then maybe the other 55%, if you can kind of give an update on anything you’re seeing there about how those people re-enroll and through the year how we should expect then to come on? You mentioned some delays. Is there a way to think about Q2 disenrollment, when do they show up on either employer coverage or the exchanges? Thanks.

John Gallina: Yeah. Thanks, Kevin. Appreciate the question. Associated with the 40% to 45%, I’m not positive about the CAGR you’re looking at from ‘19 and exactly what’s in the baseline and what all the thought processes are versus qualifications and eligibility requirements. But as we do our review in our work and certainly access a lot of independent studies as well, we feel very comfortable that we believe that 40% to 45% will stay on. And that’s really a projection for what will be the ultimate result a year from now after the entire redetermination process occurs and things shake out. So I think it’s a very reasonable expectation and we feel very good about it. And then in terms of the overall coverage patterns, everything else, one thing to point out that might be inherent in your question is as we look at the second quarter of 2023, actually many of our states, Medicaid states that are not Blue states, actually went a little bit earlier on in the beginning of the redetermination.

So everybody will have started redeterminations by now. But when you look at who started in the April, May timeframe, for us, it was more heavily weighted to the states that are not our Blue states. So we still feel very good about our overall catcher’s mitt and the fact that we think 20% to 25% of these folks will ultimately end up on employer sponsored plans, 20% to 25% will ultimately end up in an individual ACA product, 40% to 45% will stay on Medicaid. And that’s what we’re tracking to and we actually have some insights into the states that are starting in June, it looks very promising that our thought process is going to be validated. So thank you for the question.

Gail Boudreaux: Thanks. And the only thing I’d add to that is, again, there’s a timing lag here, but we feel our expectations are very much aligned. And we are seeing, particularly in the individual change, that — early states that our applications are up at a much higher rate than they were prior to redeterminations, which you would expect and given our commercial market share in our Blue states. So very well positioned in the ACA market for those that will ultimately not keep Medicaid coverage. But again, as I shared in my early remarks, we’re working really hard to make sure that everyone who’s going through this process in conjunction with our state partners understands the options that are available to us. And that’s been very positive.

We’re seeing a lot of really good uptake and we’re actually contacting, having great success rates in contacting individuals where we have the information. So those are very encouraging early signs to us. And again, we’ll continue to update as we get through this process because many of the states are really just in the throes of it, certainly our Blue states. But, thanks very much for the question. Next question please.

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