We recently published a list of 7 Best Small Company Stocks To Invest In. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Elastic NV (NYSE:ESTC) stands against the other best small company stocks to invest in.
Rate Cuts Could Boost SMid-Cap Companies
The Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September significantly impacted the market. This decision, motivated by concerns about the labor market’s health, is part of a broader plan to lower interest rates over the next few years. While some analysts believe a 50-basis point cut is too aggressive, others argue it could benefit small and mid-cap stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average also recently reached a new all-time high, indicating strong investor confidence. However, experts believe that small-cap stocks offer significant growth potential, and despite their recent underperformance compared to high-risk investments, small-cap stocks are expected to outperform large-cap stocks shortly.
We went over the anticipated high returns from small-cap stocks in greater detail in one of our other articles, 10 Best Performing Small-Cap Stocks in 2024, where we discussed Richard Bernstein’s opinion, who is the CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisers currently. Here’s an excerpt from that article:
“He elaborated on his bullish stance regarding mid-cap and small-cap stocks, emphasizing that these categories are expected to experience substantial earnings growth. By the end of this year or early next year, Bernstein forecasts that small caps will grow at a rate significantly higher than the MAG 7 tech stocks. He pointed out that this phenomenon is typical when profit cycles hit a trough; small caps tend to be more sensitive to upturns in profitability, and noted the Fed’s current easing policies are occurring simultaneously with an environment of accelerating profits, an unusual combination that could fuel economic growth.
When asked about the current market dynamics favoring mega-cap stocks over smaller ones, Bernstein acknowledged that many managers are indeed gravitating towards these larger companies. However, he cautioned that from a fundamental investment perspective, mega-cap stocks are generally slower-growing and more expensive compared to other market segments. He argued that historically, a combination of cheaper and faster-growing stocks has proven to be advantageous for investors.”
The misallocation of capital towards less productive areas can create inflationary pressures and hinder economic growth. The overall sentiment is that investors should be cautious and focus on small and mid-cap stocks that could benefit from a lower interest rate environment. Pausing and looking into diversification are the best options right now, instead of making impulsive decisions that could backfire in a highly volatile environment, until the economic outlook becomes clearer.
In a recent discussion, Curtis Nagel, senior US SMid cap internet analyst at BofA Securities, joined ‘The Exchange’ at CNBC on September 28, to discuss how rate cuts could impact small and mid-caps companies (or SMid cap companies), and where to find opportunity.
Curtis Nagel shared his insights on the performance and potential opportunities in small and mid-cap stocks following the Fed’s rate cut. While the Russell 2000 index has underperformed the major averages since the rate cut, he believes this could spell big opportunities for SMID-cap stocks across various sectors, including home furnishings and subscription services.
Nagel specifically pointed out Restoration Hardware, noting that it is a household name that often flies under the radar. He mentioned that it reported its results a couple of weeks ago, which came in slightly below guidance. However, the key takeaway was that demand for their products is beginning to accelerate at a notable rate. This uptick is attributed to several factors: it is launching new products, reaccelerating its gallery growth, and maintaining a strong presence in the premium segment of the real estate market. Unlike some of its competitors, it is starting to gain market share, which Nagel believes is crucial for investor sentiment toward the company.
When asked about the volatility associated with it, Nagel acknowledged that it can be a wild stock in terms of performance. However, he emphasized that the company has undergone a significant product transformation and is reinvesting in marketing through its sourcebooks. The resurgence of gallery growth is historically important for its expansion strategy. He believes that with these factors combined, market conditions and unique company attributes, it should continue to perform well.
Nagel’s overall thesis focuses on updating price targets for companies with high sensitivity to interest rates and strong prospects for revenue and earnings growth in a soft landing scenario. ACV Auctions was highlighted as an intriguing opportunity. Nagel described it as a digital marketplace for wholesale vehicles where dealerships trade cars. He noted that this market has not been fully digitized yet, placing the company at the forefront of this transition. Although the wholesale vehicle market has faced challenges, down about 25% relative to historic averages, Nagel theorized that as interest rates improve and car affordability increases, the company could see a market rebound. He views this stock as potentially overlooked but having significant upside.
Overall, he is updating his price targets and raising them on companies with the highest rate exposure and the best opportunity for revenue and earnings upside in a soft landing scenario. He sees SMID-cap stocks as an area of potential opportunity for investors.
Methodology
For this article, we have defined small-cap stocks as those trading between $1 billion and $10 billion. We used the Finviz stock screener and sorted our screen by market cap. We looked through the top 20 stocks that matched our criteria. We then selected 7 stocks that were the most popular among elite hedge funds and that analysts were bullish on. The stocks are ranked in ascending order of the number of hedge funds that have stakes in them, as of Q2 2024. The hedge fund data was sourced from Insider Monkey’s database which tracks the moves of over 900 elite money managers.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
A group of software engineers working in an open, futuristic office.
Elastic NV (NYSE:ESTC)
Market Capitalization as of September 27: $7.93 billion
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 58
Elastic NV (NYSE:ESTC) is an American-Dutch search company that builds self-managed and SaaS offerings for search, logging, security, observability, and analytics use cases, helping organizations discover, analyze, and act on their data. Its flagship product, Elasticsearch, is a highly scalable and distributed search engine that can be used to index and search large volumes of data in real time.
Revenue grew 18.27% year-over-year in FQ1 2025, with cloud revenue growing by 30%. The company’s customer base is expanding, with over 1,370 customers spending ~$100,000. Elastic is also capitalizing on generative AI opportunities to drive growth in its Search business.
Of the 1,300+ customers using Elastic Cloud for GenAI, over 200 are larger customers. It has introduced a new incentive program called Elastic Express Migration to streamline the transition to the Elasticsearch AI platform. This program offers comprehensive migration services, helping companies avoid the costs of working with multiple vendors.
It’s also a prominent player in the 5G sector due to its powerful data analytics and search capabilities. Its Elastic Stack is a key product, enabling organizations to effectively manage and analyze the vast amounts of data generated by 5G networks. Elastic Security, another key offering, provides comprehensive security solutions, including SIEM, SOAR, and endpoint protection.
The recent reorganization of the sales team to focus on larger customers caused temporary delays in closing deals, especially in the Americas and EMEA. However, management expects most of these deals to close soon. Despite the challenges, the recent deals and partnerships demonstrate the company’s ability to adapt to customer needs and capitalize on the growing demand for AI-driven solutions, positioning it for success.
Artisan Global Discovery Fund stated the following regarding Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:
“During the quarter, we initiated new GardenSM positions in Liberty Formula One, Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC) and Onto Innovation. Elastic is a software company that specializes in search and data analysis solutions. Elastic’s search, observability and security solutions are built on the Elastic Search AI Platform, which thousands of companies use, including more than 50% of the Fortune 500. Customers use the software to gain visibility into their data, reduce mean-time-to-resolution and drive actionable outcomes. We believe the company will benefit from the rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI). It provides a differentiated offering due to the combination of a unique pricing model based on consumption, products that handle numerous data types and volumes, and an open architecture environment that offers generative AI development flexibility.”
Overall ESTC ranks 3rd on our list of best small company stocks to invest in. While we acknowledge the potential of ESTC as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold great promise for delivering high returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than ESTC but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
