Ecopetrol S.A. (NYSE:EC) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Ricardo Roa: [Interpreted] Thank you. Lily for the question. Yes, we have an expectation of construction for the roadmap for 2024, 2025 and 2026 is a tri-annual plan and we are considering the board of directors for the goals of investment in 2024. We can tell that we expect to have the levels of production that we are going to have this year and based on these levels, we are determining the investment possibilities to be presented to the board of directors for the expenses and investments for next year. Milena, you have the floor for more details.

Milena Lopez: [Interpreted] Thank you, Ricardo. Hi, Lily. The only thing I could add to what Ricardo said, because we are building the plan at this moment and maybe at the beginning of December, we will be able to tell you how we see the investments and production goals, etc. But we have to see that we have an investment plan that is in line with the production, which is 6 to 7 billion and I think we will be within these figures. We will give you details in December. Thank you very much.

Catherine Ortiz: Catherine Ortiz from Davivienda. Stakeholders take into account the strategic plan of Ecopetrol that we just knew and its energy is focused on gas. Is there the possibility to import the gas from Venezuela? And also, if the government has increased the price of oil to close the FETEC gap, how much corresponds to oil and how much to diesel? And when will the increase begin in the FETEC?

Ricardo Roa: [Interpreted] Thank you, Catherine. First of all, we are evaluating in the medium and high levels this balance of offer of natural gas in the country, where we are studying alternatives of supply or source in the different sources that Colombia has imported natural gas, especially to balance this relation of offer demand that we have very tight with the presence of phenomena such as El Nino, where there is larger demand for thermic production in the industry and the commerce and residential consumption. So, facing these expectations, our scenarios allow us to see that there would be some gas deficits for next year from 31 GTWA for 2026 to 250 GBT per day. And we are considering different alternatives in order to leverage this deficit of the country in these medium range scenarios. So, I give the floor to David Reaño.

David Riano: [Interpreted] And for the second question, we have already explained in detail which are the expectations that Ecopetrol has in closing this gap that began this year with FIPEG resources that has significantly been reduced with the policies of the government with liberating this price and getting to this parity price. And we would be by the middle of next year, the third trimester, we would be facing this parity cost that will be translated to the users. First part of the question, Mr. Reaño, and then for the second part of the question, Milena will tell you as for the participation of gas and diesel in closing this FIPEG gap that would increase the demand of these products in the country.

Milena Lopez: [Interpreted] Yes, Mr. President. We are working very hard in guaranteeing the energetic security for this oil, covering the expected demand without problem. We’re looking at different options and we will see which portfolio will allow the best efficiency in answering to this demand. As the President said, it is an option and the country in the third quarter of 2023, importing about 2.3 GBTVA per day, which could cover a percentage of the national consumption. The import in Colombia has allowed us to guarantee the supply of gas in the country and we have to say that there is a source of energy that has to be contemplated among others because there is not only one possibility for import. And in the group, we have analyzed several additional to the one we have today and always looking for the best efficiency in responding to this demand and guaranteeing the supply in the short, medium and long terms.

As for your question for the differentiation of the feedback in oil and diesel, the accumulated deficit corresponds to oil, to gas or petrol in monetary terms. The third quarter has COP 2.7 billion, where 8700 were from gas and the rest were diesel. So, next year we’re going to have the parity with gas and so the next deficit will be due to diesel.

Daniel Guadalupe: [Interpreted] Thank you very much, Daniel Guadalupe VTC. Awesome. Which would be the gas oil prices to have the offshore infrastructure prices covered, investment covered?

Milena Lopez: [Interpreted] Thank you for the question. On this, of course, all the exercises that could take us to a price of offshore gas for it to be, for the exploitation to be viable, all these analyses are being evaluated for there are important reserve of volumes and on the quantity in order to develop the necessary infrastructure for each export and all these elements, once we do all the analysis, will give us a very clear sign. We have not designed clear figures on this and we could give us a price, reference price, the prices that are being in the market and that have been compromised. And this would be a reference, but it is not the one that is giving us the reference value for gas that could make viable its exploitation or its commercialization in the system. Thank you.

Diego Sanchez: [Interpreted] Diego Sanchez from Alianza Valores, which is allowed for refrigera and the potential indemnity. Has it been considered to sell stocks 50% in order to contribute that the market doesn’t go beyond the border?

Ricardo Roa: [Interpreted] Thank you. This would be one of the alternatives, but we do not have in the agenda or the administration of Ecopetrol or the board of directors a proposal of this type. There are elements that we are going to study in the strategy that the country could consider. But for now, more than thinking in a placement of additional stocks in the market, we are first thinking about the reinforcement of the traditional lines in generating greater wealth. And of course, it would be one of the actions that we will evaluate together with the board of directors. But today, this subject is not in the agenda of Ecopetrol. With the Laudo? Yes. And for the Laudo and the evaluation with the CBI, we have worked in the Board of Directors with the Cartagena Refinery in getting all the funds ready where we can follow these resources.

We expected last month, by the end of last month, the sentence in the judiciary in this refinery in the court of New York. It has taken some time so that CBI in the markets do not have many active. So, we could continue with the CBI. We are talking about a billion dollars. And these resources we are following. We are talking about the United Kingdom, Holland. And we have important resources. And in the declaration of CBI of these markets to do a renegotiation or a review of the passives, we have had to hire the best attorneys and follow the best process for this penalty. And this is going to be in the New York court. And also the judiciary levels that could accept this renegotiation, the CBI would do from the passives. And this is why we are continuing to see, we’re seeing this study and the decision on the future of the Cartagena Refinery.

Thank you.

Janice Caceres: [Interpreted] Janice Caceres from Acciones y Valores. Can we expect an increase of a level of debt facing 2024?

Milena Lopez: [Interpreted] Milena here. As for the debt for next year, we have a series of credits that we will be refinancing. So the question is from the incremental debt. There will be no substantial increase in the debt next year, depending on the level of payment of dividends and the speed of the increments of diesel, of the increase of diesel. We could have a marginal debt too for our additional investment, but figures very low compared to these years. There could be something marginal from Ecopetrol, but nothing really significant. We do not have more questions at this moment. We will give the floor to Mr. President for a final closing words.

Ricardo Roa: [Interpreted] I want to reiterate and thank all the team of Ecopetrol and to you all. Thank you for your participation in this third results call for the third quarter. A great end of day for all of you. Thank you very much. So we finish our conference.

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