Ecopetrol S.A. (NYSE:EC) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

I will pass the floor to Maria Catalina, who will talk to you about our transmission and toll roads, line, and the mine financial milestones.

María Catalina Escobar Hoyos: Thank you, Ricardo. In the first quarter of the year, the transmission and roads business maintained good financial results despite the strong impact of the Colombian peso revaluation against currencies such as the dollar, the Chilean peso, and the Brazilian real during the period. EBITDA decreased by around 16%, standing at COP 2.3 trillion. However, when eliminating the exchange rate effect on EBITDA, the results are at similar levels to those of 2023. Furthermore, committed to our strategic objective of diversifying our operations, the transmission and roads business continues its sustained growth in Ecopetrol Group’s results, reaching a 16% share of EBITDA for the first quarter of 2024. Some of the most relevant milestones for the first quarter of 2024 include, in Panama, ISA was awarded the tender to rehabilitate, improve, and maintain 246 kilometers of the East Pan American Highway.

The Panamanian Ministry of Public Works awarded this project to Intervial Chile in January with an estimated investment of COP 1.1 trillion. In Colombia, ISA was awarded the contract for the design, construction, operation, and maintenance of the second transformer project at the Primavera substation and the fourth transformer project at the Sogamoso substation. Additionally, it signed a private connection contract for the execution of the [indiscernible] project for the expansion of the Sabanalarga substation. The awarded projects amount a reference CapEx of COP 146 billion. With these significant awards, the total committed investments up to 2030 amount around COP 29.4 trillion consolidating the growth trajectory of our subsidiary in different geographies.

Finally, on April 1st, the sale of Internexa Brasil was closed with a final estimated price of COP 2.1 billion equivalent. Please move on to the next slide to detail the group’s financial performance. In the first quarter of 2024, we maintained competitive levels of profitability, supported by excellent operational results and efficiencies captured worth over COP 600 billion. We achieved an EBITDA of COP 14.2 trillion and an EBITDA margin of 45%, keeping us within the average of the last eight years for this period and at competitive levels compared to the industry. Additionally, the return on average capital employed, ROCE remains in double-digits, recording 11% and above our annual target of around 9%. On the path to diversifying our business lines, in the first quarter of 2024, the contribution to the total EBITDA from the exploration and production business was 54%, followed by transportation with 20%, transmission and roads with 16%, and finally, refining with 10%.

On the other hand, we maintain healthy debt metrics with a gross debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.9x at the end of March. This is in line with our long-term guideline where we aim to maintain a level below 2.5x for this indicator. Regarding debt maturity management, we maintain a dynamic of anticipating refinancing needs. Thus, Ecopetrol successfully issued bonds in the international market in January of this year for $1,850 million and obtain approval from the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit to carry out the debt management operation for $1.2 billion in March. These resources are committed by banking entities and are expected to be disbursed in the second quarter of the year. With these operations, Ecopetrol addresses its debt maturities for 2024 and 2025, in addition to demonstrating its commitment to refinancing strategy through the capital markets and access to different credit alternatives with local and international banks.

As for our investment plan by the end of first quarter of 2024, the Ecopetrol Group invested around $1289 million equivalent to COP 5 trillion, with dollar investments being the highest recorded since 2016 for the same period. Investments were mainly made in Colombia with a 57% share, while the remaining 43% was at the international level, mainly in the United States and Brazil. Investments in the hydrocarbons line accounted for 67% of the total investments, grouping the exploration and production, transportation, and refining businesses. For exploration and production activities in Colombia, investments were concentrated in the Rubiales, Castilla, Cano Sur, CPO09, and Chichimene fields. Meanwhile, internationally, exploration investments focus on the Permian Basin in the United States.

Refining and transportation activities focus on operational continuity and maintenance of refineries and pipeline systems. In the low emission business line, projects associated with gas and energy transition represented 13% of the total investments in the quarter. Resources were mainly allocated to the growth of the gas chain and supply in fuels such as Florena and Cupiagua, and in the Tayrona block in the offshore Caribbean in Colombia. Investments in the translation and roads line accounted for 20% of the total and were mainly allocated to the development of energy projects in Brazil, Peru, and Colombia. By the end of 2024, we expect to make investments between COP 23 trillion and COP 27 trillion as announcing our financial and investment plan.

Please move on to the next slide. Regarding net income, in the first quarter of 2024, we recorded COP 4 trillion with the following highlights compared to the same period in 2023. First, an outstanding operational performance reflected in our EBITDA through a positive volumetric effect of COP 0.8 trillion. This was associated with increased production and greater operational availability in both refineries, as well as lower purchases of crude and products. Second, an impact of COP 2.9 trillion due to a lower average exchange rate, a higher level of costs and expenses by COP 0.8 trillion, and a lower weighted average selling price of crudes and products with an impact of COP 0.7 trillion. This resulted in a total decrease in EBITDA of COP 3.6 trillion in the period.

Likewise, there was an increase of COP 0.7 trillion in the recognition of depreciation and amortization as a result of higher investment levels and increased production. On the other hand, there was a lower tax provision, resulting in a positive effect on net income of COP 2.7 trillion, derived from the decrease in results. The effective tax rate for the first quarter of 2024 was 36.5%, assuming the deductibility of royalties and a windfall tax of 10%. Regarding tax regulation, the final ruling on the prohibition of deducting royalties will be issued soon by the constitutional court, and the effects of such decision on the Ecopetrol Group will be analyzed based on this decision for the corresponding periods. About the liquidity position, we finished the quarter with a robust cash balance at Ecopetrol Group of COP 17.3 trillion.

The primary source of liquidity during this period was the operating cash flow of COP 6 trillion, followed by net debt and interest inflows of COP 1 trillion. There is an improvement in working capital associated with the lower accumulation of the fuel price stabilization fund. And regarding cash outflows, the main disbursements were allocated to Ecopetrol’s CapEx and its subsidiaries, totaling about COP 4.3 trillion. Additionally, in the early days of April, the first installment of dividends was paid to minority shareholders, totaling approximately COP 738 billion along with a payment to the nation for the same concept amounting COP 4 trillion. Regarding the fuel price stabilization front, we continue to make progress towards reducing the accounts receivable balance.

By the end of first quarter of the year, it stood at COP 22.7 trillion, supported by the positive differential between the local gasoline price and the international reference price. This has partially offset the accumulation of the diesel related account given the current price levels in the country. There is a notable and sustained decrease in the pace of accumulation of the account receivable with a 72% decrease in its value in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. Furthermore, the government’s commitment to reduce the balance was clear in April of this year with the payment of COP 7.8 trillion from the accumulation corresponding to the first quarter of 2023. During 2024, we expect to continue receiving quarterly payments from the FEPC and collect the entire outstanding balance from 2023 totaling COP 12.7 trillion.

By the end of the year, with an average Brent price close to $83 per barrel, we estimate an accumulation of the account receivable of the fund between COP 8 trillion to COP 10 trillion, subject to fluctuations in the international crude oil market price and the exchange rate primary. This estimate is significantly lower than the amount accumulated in 2023 of COP 20.5 trillion and in 2022 of COP 36.8 trillion. I’ll now hand over to Ricardo for the closing remarks.

Ricardo Roa Barragan: Thank you, Maria Catalina, and thanks to all who have made these results possible for the first quarter of 2024. In conclusion, the capital discipline, the rigor of the financial evaluation of our process allow us to face the challenging environment marked by the revaluation of the peso, the increase in energy cost, inflationary pressures, the price differential of products and our full commitment to advancing gas supply to the country. Likewise, thanks to the technical and operational strength, we have been able to capture opportunities such as the Brent price situation, exceeding our expectation, maximizing our excellent operational performance and diversifying into new markets to maintain a profitable and competitive business.

On the production front, the good operational management of the last few months, which highlights the performance of the drilling campaigns in the Permian, Rubiales and Cano Sur, the success in the scheduled maintenance, the assurance of reliability levels, and the entry of the new wells allow us to move forward on the growth path. We expect to be above the target range by 2024, placing us between 730,000 and 755,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. We will continue to execute our plan for 2024 with technical and financial strength and advising in our strategy towards 2040. Our operation remains solid, accompanied by a rigorous plan of efficiencies and cost control. I thank everyone for their participation. With this, we’ll begin the question-and-answer session.

Operator: We’ll take questions in Spanish, and afterwards, you’ll have a space for questions in English. Please make maximum three questions to give enough room for the rest of the participants that need. Guardiola from — Mr. Guardiola will be online with a question. Mr. Guardiola, you may proceed.

DanielGuardiola: Good morning. I have a couple of questions. The first one on production, I’d like to understand in a better way. And if you could give me some details about the reduction. In the reduction we saw quarter versus quarter both in Colombian and Permian and how you would expect the production to be during the rest of the year. And online with production, looking at the new production change you published, this means that we’ll have an average production for the next nine months between 720 million and 730 million barrels per day. What are the risks you’re seeing, in relation that production during the next nine months would fall and 14,000 barrels per day versus what you had in the first quarter of 2024? And the last one, the very quick one. Could you give us details about the details on tax provisions for the second quarter of 2024 as a result of the enrollment of the decision of the Constitutional Court in 2024. Those would be my questions. Thank you.