Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. (NASDAQ:EGLE) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. (NASDAQ:EGLE) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript November 3, 2023

Operator: Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Eagle Bulk Shipping Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker’s presentation, there’ll be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Gary Vogel, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Gary Vogel: Thank you and good morning. I would like to welcome everyone to Eagle Bulk’s third quarter 2023 earnings call. To supplement our remarks today, I would encourage participants to access the slide presentation that is available on our website at Eagleships.com. Please note that part of our discussion today will include forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are inherently subject to risk and uncertainties. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Please refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a more detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties that may have a direct bearing on our operating results, our performance, and our financial condition.

Our discussion today also includes certain non-GAAP financial measures, including TCE, TCE revenues, adjusted net income, EBITDA, and adjusted EBITDA. Please refer to the appendix in the presentation and our earnings release filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission for more information concerning non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP financial measures. Please turn to Slide 6. The industry experienced a challenging market during Q3, with the BSI averaging just over 10,000 for the period, the weakest third quarter in three years. Our financial results for the quarter are reflective of the underlying freight environment that impacted our results as we generated a net loss of $5.1 million or $0.55 per share.

We continue to execute on our strategy to monetize non-core older vessels. Specifically, we closed on the sale of the SANKATY EAGLE, a mid-aged, non-scrubber fitted Supramax. This was the third and last vessel in the End Block [ph] transaction we previously disclosed. The sale of the three ships generated a total of 35 million in profit for us, implying a levered IRR of 70% based on just a two-year investment period. Please turn to Slide 7. For Q3 we achieved a net TCE of $11,482, representing an outperformance versus the benchmark BSI of $1,441 per ship per day or roughly 14%. Freight rates during the months of July and August remain depressed, with the BSI averaging just 8,500. This weakness was driven by lower fleet utilization as a result of the continued low levels of vessel congestion globally.

The BSI bottomed at 75.45 on August 7th and has since experienced a strong rally with the index reaching close to 15,000 by the end of September. The Atlantic Basin was the main driver of this recovery in rates as we saw robust exports of soybeans and corn out of Brazil following a record crop being harvested this season. As we looked to Q4, spot rates have come off from their highs or remain supported, with the BSI averaging approximately $13,700 for the month of October. As of today, we fixed approximately 68% of our owned available days for the fourth quarter at a net TCE of $15,655. With that, I’d like to turn the call over to Costa, who will discuss our financial results for the period. Costa?

Costa Tsoutsoplides: Thank you, Gary. Please turn to Slide 9. I’d mentioned earlier on the call, weak market fundamentals during the third quarter and particularly during the months of July and August, impacted our financial results for the period with net top line performance or TCE revenues totaling $54 million. This equates to an achieved TCE of $11,482, or about 5% above the level we indicated for our fixtures to date on our last earnings call. Although freight rates improved significantly during September, this was not really reflected in our results for Q3 due to the inherent lag when fixing business. But as I’ve indicated earlier, we expect to see a meaningful increase to our TCE in Q4 based on the business we have fixed thus far.

Special operating expenses improved approximately 7% quarter-on-quarter to a total of $29 million or 59.94 per day in line with our outlook. OPEX improved primarily due to the decrease in repairs and discretionary upgrades, normalization crew costs post the completion of our crew management transition project, and also benefited from the fact that we did not take delivery of any newly acquired vessels during the quarter. General and administrative expenses decreased 5% quarter-on-quarter, to a total of 10.7 million, in line with our outlook. Cash cost came in at just under 9 million. Other operating expense items which had a net positive impact for the quarter included a 4.9 million gain relating to the sale of the SANKATY EAGLE, offset partially by a $700,000 cost relating to Eagle.

Net interest expense inclusive of cash interest expense, cash interest income, and non-cash deferred financing fees came in at 6.2 million for the quarter, which was modestly better than where we had previously guided at. Our interest expense increased as compared to the prior quarter as a result of the upside and subsequent drawdown on our credit facility in June. The unrealized net P&L on derivatives for Q3 was negative $2 million. This was primarily attributed to our outstanding FFA positions as of September 30. After stripping out the non-cash mark-to-market effects from derivatives, we generated an adjusted net loss for the quarter of 2.9 million or $0.31 per share basic and diluted. Please note that the convertible bond was deemed to be anti-dilutive this quarter from an EPS perspective.

As such, the shares underlying the security were not included in the diluted share count. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to 15.6 million. Please turn to Slide 10. We ended the quarter with a total cash position of $116 million, down $2 million as compared to June 30. We generated 3.8 million from operations. We produced 14.5 million from investing activities, which was primarily comprised of the proceeds from the sale of the SANKATY EAGLE, and we used 20 million in financing comprised of the following: a 12.5 million payment relating to the quarterly amortization on our term loan, a 5.8 million payment relating to our Q2 dividend distribution, and 1.8 million in payments primarily relating to advisory fees for the share repurchase transaction concluded in June.

Please turn to Slide 11. Our liquidity position as of September 30 totals $171 million, inclusive of $55 million in undrawn RCF availability. Total debt outstanding as of quarter end was $504.5 million comprised of the following; $104 million on a convertible bond based amount, $275 million on the term loan, and $125 million on the RCF. In the third quarter, we entered into interest rate swaps on $75 million notional relating to the new upsized term loan amount, and as of September 30, 75% of our total debt is now fixed and immune from movements in underlying interest rates. Inclusive of swaps that we have in place, the all in weighted average interest rate on our total debt position is approximately 5.2% today. For more information on our debt facilities, please reference the debt term summary slide in the appendix.

Please turn to Slide 12. As we look ahead into Q4, we are providing you with the following information on outlook. Owned available days is projected to be 4,560 after taking into consideration estimates for both scheduled and unscheduled offhire. As we indicated earlier, as of today, we have fixed approximately 68% of our owned available days at a TCE of 15,655. Please note this figure is inclusive of our pro-rata estimate for realized FFA gains and losses for the period on a mark-to-market basis. On the expense side, we are projecting the following on a per owned day basis. Vessel operating expenses are expected to remain flat in the range between 5,900 and 6,200. Non-cash depreciation and amortization expense is projected to come in between 3,200 and 3,400.

G&A cash expenses are forecast to come in between 1,700 and 1,900. As a reminder, this figure is based on our owned fleet only and does not take into account our vessel operating days for the chartered in fleet. Non-cash stock based compensation is estimated to come in between 300 and 400. Net interest expense is expected to come in between 1,300 and 1,600. As of September 30, we had 9.3 million basic shares outstanding and 12.8 million diluted shares outstanding after taking into account the shares underlying the convertible bond and unvested equity awards. This concludes my remarks. I will now turn the call back to Gary who will discuss industry fundamentals.

Gary Vogel: Thank you Costa. Please turn to Slide 14. As mentioned earlier, freight rates have posted a meaningful recovery since early August. The Atlantic market is holding up well thanks to strong grain exports out of both Brazil and now being supported by grain 1exports from the U.S. Gulf as well. It’s also benefiting due to a shortage of available tonnage in the region. A drought in Central America has led to low water levels in Panama, and forced the canal authorities to put in place restrictions to the number of vessels transiting through the canal, leading to a rise in vessel delays. Under normal conditions, approximately 32 vessels can transit through the canal each way every day. Recently, that number has been reduced to around 25, and just this week, the Canal Authority said the number will be reduced further down to just 18 vessels per day by February.

This reduction will continue to add to delays and also increase ton miles per vessels that are forced to use alternate routes. Rates in the Pacific Basin, which have benefited from elevated Chinese coal imports in recent months, appear to have reached a seasonal peak in mid-October and have traded off. It’s worth mentioning that the Israel-Hamas conflict has not materially impacted the dry bulk market, as the Eastern Mediterranean is not a significant import or export region. However, the elevated risk from a macro perspective is real and could have meaningful consequences for global growth should the conflict widen. Please turn to Slide 15. Our scrubber position remains unchanged with 50 of our ships, or 96% of our fleet being fitted with exhaust gas cleaning systems.

Fuel prices generally rose during the third quarter, with HSFO rising by 18% on increased demand from the Middle East for use in power generation and tighter HSFO supply as EU continued to be impacted by the ban on Russian crude and refined products. VLSFO, which tends to be highly correlated with crude oil, rose by 9%. As a result, fuel spreads between HSFO and VLSFO averaged roughly $86 per ton for the third quarter. Notwithstanding a contraction in fuel spreads during the quarter, we’ve seen a meaningful widening in recent weeks due to a relative drop of HSFO prices stemming from increased supply of HSFO, as more Russian crude is going into Asian markets and West African crude production has increased as well relative to earlier this year.

The crude from these regions generally results in more HSFO production than from other regions. The current fuel spread for the fourth quarter now stands at around $150 per ton, and based on the 2024 forward curve of $115 per ton, we estimate our scrubbers would generate approximately $30 million of incremental earnings on an annualized basis. This translates to an incremental seed benefit of approximately $1,650 per day, representing a meaningful contribution in the current freight environment. Please turn to Slide 16. Mimicking the trend in freight rates asset prices bottomed in August and have since traded up by approximately 10%. Buying interest remains focused on the more modern tonnage, and still seems to be dominated by European based ship owners who tend to have more of an asset trader approach to investing.

Asian buyers, which have generally been out of the market for most of the year, appear to be showing interest again, and we view this as a positive signal for market sentiment and general direction. For Eagle, we continue to monitor the market and evaluate opportunities that can further optimize our fleet and enhance our competitive position. Since 2016, we’ve executed a total of 58 sound purchase transactions, turning over 52% of our fleet and generating incremental value for the enterprise and our shareholders. Please turn to Slide 17. Net fleet supply growth slowed in Q3. A total of 113 dry bulk new build vessels were delivered during the period, as compared with 132 in the prior quarter. New building deliveries in Q3 were partially offset by 37 vessels which were removed from the market and scrapped.

Notably for Eagle, 12 mid-sized geared vessels were scrapped during the quarter. While still low this represents a very significant increase and compares to just nine mid-sized vessels scrapped during all of 2022 out of a fleet of approximately 4,100 vessels. As we’ve mentioned previously despite higher scrap prices that have averaged around $540 per ton in 2023 thus far, the low level of demolition is not surprising given the strength in the underlying spot market during 2021 and 2022, and the apparent shared sentiment by owners that rates will be strong going forward. In terms of forward supply growth the overall dry bulk order book remains close to historically low levels of around 8.1% of the on the water fleet. Despite rising modestly in recent quarters, it’s noteworthy that the delivery range of ships that have been ordered now extends more than four years, even into 2028, lowering the impact of the order book even further as compared with headline numbers.

For 2023 dry bulk net fleet growth projected at 2.9%. The main driver of this low growth rate is a continuation of muted deliveries, which is to deferred despite low levels of scrapping across all dry bulk segments. We also note that scrapping in 2023 was forecast to be as high as 30 million dead weight last year, but that projection has continuously been revised downward and is now forecast to just 6.7 million deadweight tons. A total of 71 ships were ordered during Q3, down 60% from 169 ships during the prior quarter. Notably, this is the first time in three years that contracting was under 100 vessels for a quarter. It’s also worth noting that the vast majority of orders being placed today will not be delivered until 2026, or even later.

Please turn to slide 18. The longer term, future supply dynamics continue to look very favorable. Based on delivery of the current order book as well as anticipated scrapping levels the mid-size fleet is expected to surpass the record average age of 11.8 years in mid-2024. The positive from this trend is that there’s an ever increasing number of significantly older ships that will need to be recycled during the coming years. As we noted on the previous slide, the forecast for scrapping over the next year or two has been continually revised downward, which only increases the average fleet age and adds to the pool of potential future scrapping candidates. It’s worth noting that ships over 15 years of age need to dry dock every 30 months, which translates to a meaningful and ever increasing cost for ships as they age.

Given limited yard capacity, relative cost advantages of second hand ships versus new buildings, as well as uncertainty surrounding decarbonization and future fuel propulsion technology, we believe ordering and the resultant order book will remain low for sometime. We expect these dynamics combining a near record low order book with a near record fleet age to further improve the supply side in terms of fleet development in the coming years. Please turn to Slide 19. The IMF is currently projecting global GDP growth to reach 3% for 2023, unchanged from their previous forecast in July. For 2024 global GDP is expected to grow by 2.9%, which is a 10 basis point reduction compared to the July estimate, and forecast notes that both headline and core inflation rates are being brought under control in most countries.

At the same time, the soft landing scenario where inflation control is achieved without a meaningful downturn in the economy looks increasingly likely. The IMF does note that the GDP outlook faces potential downside risks from both a deepening of real estate crisis in China, as well as volatility in commodity prices. In terms of the dry bulk market, total freight demand for 2023 is expected to come in at 3.7% on a core basis, and improve further to 4.6% once factoring in the ton mile effect. Please turn to Slide 20. Looking into the details of dry bulk demand on this slide, we note that 2023 forecast for most commodities has improved since our last earnings call. Iron ore demand growth has been revised upward by 150 basis points to 3.9%, primarily on an upward revision in Chinese demand of 29 million tons.

Coal demand has also been revised upward by 70 basis points to 6.4% growth for 2023, an increased demand from China for both thermal coal and coking coal, which has been partially offset by reductions in coal demand from Europe, India, and Japan. Demand for minor bulks is generally holding steady with an upward revision of 60 basis points to 1.9% growth on an absolute basis for 2023, which is led by increases in trade demand for steel, scrap, aggregates as well as sugar. In terms of grains, trade demand growth has been revised upward by 135 basis points to 3.7% in 2023. On the export side increases in estimated trade volume has been led by Brazil and Russia, but also includes increases from Canada, Ukraine and Australia partially offset by decreases from the U.S. and Argentina.

Looking ahead to 2024 it’s now projected for minor bulks to lead dry bulk demand with growth of 3.2% on a core basis, with increased demand forecasts for nearly all minor bulk commodities. Major bulks are projected to grow at just 0.1% on a core basis, with the increases in the grain trade being offset by decreases in both iron ore and coal. The strong minor bulk forecast is particularly important for Eagle Bulk which historically derives approximately two thirds of its cargo demand the minor bulk cargoes. Please turn to Slide 21 for a recap. Given Eagle’s exclusive focus on the mid-size segment, as well as a commercial platform that has a track record of meaningful outperformance, we continue to be in optimal position to maximize utilization to capitalize on a rapidly evolving environment.

Looking forward, we remain positive about the medium term prospects to the dry bulk industry, particularly given strong supply side fundamentals. With a fully modern fleet of 52 predominantly scrubber fitted vessels with approximately 170 million in total liquidity, Eagle is well positioned to continue to take advantage of opportunities for the benefit of all of our stakeholders. With that, I’d like to now turn the call over to the operator and answer any questions you may have. Operator.

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Q&A Session

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of Liam Burke with B. Riley Financial. Your line is now open.

Liam Burke: Thank you. Good morning, Gary and Costa.

Gary Vogel: Good morning, Liam.

Liam Burke: Gary, you mentioned a number of things both on the supply and demand side to drive up rates or improve the rate environment but they’re still trending below historical averages. Is there anything else out there that’s holding rates back or is it just the market, I mean, it would seem that supply is very tight, the demand for commodities is positive, it shouldn’t take a whole lot to get rates going especially with the tight fleet supply?

Gary Vogel: Yeah, so first of all, we definitely see that the markets move fairly quickly. In both directions there is volatility, which I think speaks to your point about fairly tight balance in various markets. The supply side, I think our view looks extremely compelling given the historically low order book, along with the almost record age. Having said that, we just haven’t seen meaningful scrapping now for six years. And as I mentioned, this quarter 12 ships is not a big number, but at least it’s significantly more than last year, when it was nine all year. We need to see that scrapping and I believe we are starting to see it, because you just can’t keep steel ships in a saltwater environment going forever. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, ships over 15 years old need to dry dock every two and a half years.

So we think that’s coming, that’s scrapping, and that’s really what’s going to tighten up the supply side. On demand, demands has been I think strong on a relative basis from what was expected. And as I mentioned also in my prepared remarks, most commodity demands had been revised upward over the last quarter. Having said that, I think the big headwind we faced this year was really an unwinding of congestion, much more efficiency in ports, particularly in China, not much congestion there. And then on top of it, there’s also a lot of ships taken out of habitat for dry docking newer ships every five years, and I mentioned the older ships every two and a half years. During COVID, with Chinese zero COVID policy dry dock tons went up significantly, and they’re now back to normal.

So I think we faced an unwinding of global congestion that really was — had a profound impact on the market. Having said that, we got to pre-COVID levels in terms of congestion. As I mentioned also in my prepared remarks, we’re starting to see some bottlenecks in various areas. Panama Canal is one example. Also, there’s a significant amount of congestion on smaller ships, waiting to load sugar up Brazil and things like that. So, congestion is a double edged sword, when it comes it takes supply out of the market. But inevitably, it unwinds at times and I think that’s one of the things we faced in 2023.

Liam Burke: Great, thanks Gary. Costa, you’re looking at a fourth quarter with sequentially higher spot rates. You’ve laid out what your CAPEX requirements are for the quarter, but it looks like you’re going to see a nice significant step up in cash flow. You’ve got your stated dividend policy, what happens after that?

Costa Tsoutsoplides: So, I think our first kind of way to do that is on repayment of the RCF. So we have 125 million of RCF drawn, although we don’t have to pay anything down on that until 2026, mid of 2026. I think we will likely look to repay it opportunistically. We also, of course, have the Convert maturing in August. And as we said, in a number of quarters now we’ll likely look to settle that with some sort of combination of cash and shares. But we do have a number of months until we need to put a plan in place for that.