Dutch Bros Inc. (NYSE:BROS) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Charley Jemley: I don’t know how you would get to an occupancy or other number moving in the fourth quarter since we didn’t guide the fourth quarter. But I would just characterize the investment in labor we talked about. We’ll have some additional SG&A investments around capability building that we’ll use to both drive traffic and drive our ability to activate on all these things and growth through the coming quarters. So that’s really what tempers our EBITDA guide to 150 to 155 given the over delivery in the third quarter, we’ll have some spend backs in both the shop level and at the SG&A level.

Operator: Our next question is from Rahul Krotthapalli with JP Morgan.

Rahul Krotthapalli: On the personalization journey with the rewards program and loyalty, like can you guys like elaborate on where you are here with transactions coming in? How large is the average check size from the members versus non numbers? And also, if you can comment on the frequency of the rewards members change? And I have a follow-up.

Christine Barone: Yes. So, we don’t share that detailed level of data about the rewards program. What I would say is, again, it’s a program that’s really in its infancy, if I can say it that way, that the significant change we made in how we allocate kind of the spend against it at the end of March has really allowed us to start sending out things like frequency challenges, daypart different — attracting folks to different day parts into the program. And so, as we do all of those things, we’re also experimenting with different points levels of which we have customers come in to the shops. And so, I think that we will just continue to learn from that program and get more sophisticated with the level of offers that we’re doing within the program.

Rahul Krotthapalli: Got it. And on the builder shift back in the development pipeline, did you guys discuss the mix going forward as you increase them or ground leases to reduce capital intensity. And can you also discuss like how it can impact the rents to an extent possible?

Charley Jemley: Yes. So, we haven’t discussed the mix. As we look at 2024 objectives and targets, we’ll give you some context. And just to temper your expectations, you don’t make dramatic shifts in lease type. We make refinements, and that’s what we’re doing. In terms of what it does to rent, a build-to-suit rent is higher than a ground lease rent. But what you’re really doing is the trade-off of less upfront cash intensity to build a build-to-suit versus a ground lease, we’re trading that for having more rent on a go-forward basis. And we just — we thoughtfully make those trade-offs.

Christine Barone: Yes. And I would just add, as we have shared before that we really expect any of the changes in the pipeline to be in the 2025 pipeline that the 2024 pipeline has really been built out for some time. And so, we would expect to see minimal changes to the 2024 pipeline.

Operator: Our next question is from Drew [indiscernible] with Robert W. Baird.

Unidentified Analyst: It’s on the topic of cash flows. Wondering if you could provide some additional perspective on how you’re thinking about free cash flow over the next couple of years? And then when you think you may return to free cash flow positive when considering all the changes you have underway with your development strategy?

Charley Jemley: So, the best way to think about that is, A, we have ample liquidity to get through this investment phase. Secondly, the store base, the company shop base is continuing to scale up its cash flow generation. That cash flow generation is going faster than the CapEx required to make the store investments. So over time, as the company business scales and size and scope, it’s going to become more and more self-funding. We have not shared when we think will be free cash flow positive, largely going to depend on the rate of shop growth, how many shops we build, etc. And when we get to guiding 2024 and we can give some CapEx guide and some adjusted EBITA guide, you’ll see how those factors are playing out.