Duolingo, Inc. (NASDAQ:DUOL) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

We’re not yet as well known as a math app or a music app. So they’re much smaller than our language courses. But even if that’s the case and even it’s only been for like three months, our belief is that we’re either already the largest or among the top largest in terms of DAUs of apps where you can learn math or music, and that just shows you the power of our platform. Now even though that’s true these are so much smaller than language learning that for the — my sense is for this whole year you’re probably just not going to see a lot of impact. I mean these are growing quite a bit. It took us 12 years to get there for language learning. The hope is it won’t take us 12 years to get there for math and music, but it will probably take us a few years.

I mean these things are still in the oven. But the results that we have so far, we’re very happy with and they are much better than the results we had after we launched language learning. So if you rewind 10 years ago and you look at language learning these courses are just way ahead. So we’re very happy with that. But again these things are still in the oven.

Ryan MacDonald: That’s helpful. Maybe this one is a bit more qualitative I guess. Obviously you talked about the success you’ve had with large viral moments or cultural moments over the past year. And maybe some of that came by chance, some of that being strategic. But are you taking any learnings from that this in 2023 and applying that into 2024, maybe be more proactive in how you’re creating that marketing strategy around let’s say you’ve got a large Dune release coming up this week and that seemed to be a highly anticipated to try to position yourself better for some of those moments moving forward?

Luis von Ahn: Yeah. I mean, it’s an excellent question. I think it’s true that some of these things we just can’t control. I mean there is just — it comes from us. We get a lot of inbound we are in a very nice position where brands or movies or TV shows think of us and they come to us. We can’t control that much, but it’s awesome that that happens. That said our marketing team has just gotten so good at knowing where to get involved, what to comment on that even though some of these things we can’t control, many others, we can. And many of the other things that may just seem like they were just out of the blue were things that were fully planned by our marketing team. And so we’re just going to continue doing that. I mean there — I mean, I’ve seen the plans.

I don’t want to spoil the surprises, but we have a robust plan for the rest of the year in terms of viral moments. Now, not all of them will work. We’ll try some stuff that will probably flop, but some of it will work, and we feel very good about that. So, I think just the team has just gotten really good at being in the zeitgeist. And so yeah, I’m very happy with that. My meetings with our CMO are usually awesome because he always has really funny videos to show me of things that they’re preparing.

Ryan MacDonald: Well, congrats again. Thanks for taking our questions.

Luis von Ahn: Thank you.

Deborah Belevan: Thanks, Ryan. And the next question comes from Mark Mahaney of Evercore.

Mark Mahaney: I’ll ask two questions, please. First, on the incremental margins that you’re guiding to for this upcoming — for this year of 35%, so those are very intrinsically robust EBITDA margins. They are lower than what you did in 2023. Is there anything to read into that? Is there any sort of structural change in the business in terms of the cost requirements of new growth areas or something like that? And then secondly, you’ve given interesting disclosures in the past on how growth in terms of bookings or revenue in your most mature markets, the US compares with that on your global average. Any update you could provide there? Like how does the US bookings growth and North American bookings growth compare with that of the business as a whole? Thank you very much.

Matt Skaruppa: Thanks, Mark. So the adjusted — incremental adjusted EBITDA comment in the guide, look, our belief is that we want to make every year progress towards our long-term margin. To do that, you have to be at or above your long-term margin in terms of incremental margin. And so that’s what we’re doing this year. As we talked about on some calls last year, companies that we respect in our industry, that go from being kind of not profitable to then materially profitable, usually make a big jump in their first year where the incremental margins are a lot higher. And then that usually comes back down towards their long-term margin. So I don’t think we’re paving new ground there. I think that’s normal course. In terms of why that is though, I just want to remind you.

Like the reason is, because we have a ton of runway ahead of us in our core markets, and we’re adding math and music. And we’re just excited about that investment in our R&D function. And so there’s really nothing else to read into it other than we’re excited about the opportunity ahead of us, and we’re going to continue to invest in kind of our core R&D and in business in that regard and still make progress though every year towards our long-term margin. And then can you remind me of the second question? Oh, it was the disclosure around geography. So historically, what we’ve talked about usually is the DAU growth. And so what we’re looking at is when we grow so rapidly, is that what we call or consider high quality and broad based? Broad-based, meaning countries that are big for us like the US or some European countries, are those growth rates close to the average growth rate or not?